$600 NLHE 6-max: Missed combo draw vs capped PFR, bluff jam river?

[c0rnBr34d]

Card dead at an active table above my roll again. V has CBF 78 and a reasonable AF. When he doesn't cbet flop or raise flop or turn and checks river he's mostly capped to strong Jx, weak Qx, or a busted straight draw. Our stats look extra nitty so V may not suspect we have enough bluffs. Do we let it rip here on the river since we have no showdown value and missed both of our draws or give up?

PokerStars - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 59.56 BB
BB: 101.5 BB
UTG: 272.87 BB - VP 27 / PR 28 / 3B 7 / AF 2 / CBF 78 / FRFB 100 (113 hands)
MP: 202.08 BB
CO: 164.6 BB
Hero (BTN): 84.74 BB - VP 19 / PR 9 / 3B 7 / AF 1 (78 Hands)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♠ T♠

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB, SB calls 2 BB, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (10 BB, 4 players) 6♥ J♣ Q♠
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 5 BB, SB calls 5 BB, fold, UTG calls 5 BB

Turn: (25 BB, 3 players) 4♠
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 17 BB, fold, UTG calls 17 BB

River: (59 BB, 2 players) 7♣
UTG checks, Hero ???

 

[gustav197poker]

I suppose UTG villain has a very wide range, given the number of callers he had preflop. On the flop he didn't show much interest in making his continuation bet, so I can understand a bet of half pot with a backdoor royal flush draw. The small blind joined the party so it was a good job to kick him in the turn with another stronger bet.
Apparently UTG villain has the stats in shape, but reality shows us that he tends to deviate a bit in the opening ranges, otherwise he would not have as many calls in preflop.
Also since we blocked some high Q's it is clear that in this sequence the villain did not correctly protect the marginal part of his range.
Getting back to the point, we have the advantage that this villain thinks too much about form, so it is a good opportunity to play with his SPR since he is on the limit (favorable for us).
Normally this is a very unpleasant situation for us, but in this particular hand I think we have several reasons to try the steal.
Greetings.

 

[loafaBREAD]

OK… I’ll take a crack at this. (for what it’s worth! I only play 10nl) If it comes off as gibberish, please ignore it!

V’s flop XC range could be a bit wide since this is 4 way, especially if you have history with this guy.

UTG XC range: 9Ts, JTs, QTs, TT, 99, ATs, AJ = 32c

If he’s tricky (unlikely considering how the hand played out) QJs, QQ = 5c (I will ignore these)

By the time he XCs twice and checks a third time, he’s got AJ, QTs, JTs, and maybe TT and 99 if people hang on at those stakes. (again, clueless) Total of 26 combos.

Assuming he can fold JTs, TT and 99, he can fold 11/26 = 42%

It’s a 59 bb pot, so a 43bb bet would only have to work ~42% of the time. I don’t know how this would look since you only have 60.24 left behind on the river. A jam would need him to fold a bit over ½ the time to BE.

As for what cards to use as a bluff, in my model he calls with QTs and AJ so you’d want to block those. KT of another suit would be better for that. ATs would be the best candidate.

Your 3 streets value would be QJs, KQs, AQ, JJ sometimes, and maybe 66 (not sure if these are all calls 100% for you). For your opponent to call 43bb, they’d need to win ~29% of the time so you can do about 2.4:1 value to bluff, and throw a few more bluffs due to your nitty image. It’s 23 combos listed, but let’s call it 20 since you may 3! AQs and JJ sometimes. You need at least 10 bluffs (just about 10 in the jam scenario), so AT works best, KT is second. I really don’t know what else to use there for a bluff!

If V is folding AJ sometimes to a jam, or if he winds up at the river with more missed draws/underpairs, then maybe KT could work as a jam.

What did you end up doing? I’m curious as to what he was holding!

 

[c0rnBr34d]

What did you end up doing? I’m curious as to what he was holding!

I like to wait at least 24 hours to get more feedback before sharing results. Remind me if I forget. Thanks.

 

[quant1986]

I would imagine 4 way UTG could still have very balanced and strong flop checking range at your stake.

His river range may have something like AA, QQ, and AQ, AJ, KQ with no BDFD potential. Also some AK, AT.

KJs, JTs,TT, likely give up on the turn and you also hold one T as well.

So I guess he can selectively fold some AJ,KQ and all AK/AT to your river jam and defend all others.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

What did you end up doing? I’m curious as to what he was holding!

Looks like this thread is dead so here are results as requested.

You were spot on with this analysis.

Hero ripped it in and V mini-tank called with AJo. Ouch.

 

[gustav197poker]

Thanks for sharing the results. I do not like. But we know it was a possibility. It's been the bottom of the villain range, because you're less likely to get paid a triple barrel bluff with Jxs. In this case, the villain with the x / c lines of flop and turn, could induce you to bluff with medium pockets, since they unlock higher draws that he could represent and finally use them or give up, taking into account that his SPR it has the just margin to fold.
Basically the river's bluff was acceptable and worthy of the stake that is being played (high risk) because you automatically eliminate all the bluffs of V and make middle hands like Jxs suffer a lot to pay you, because it isolates them with better hands of your rank. If were KdTd it would be a best bluff for this texture, because it does not interfere with the villain's calling range.