$600 NLHE 6-max: Line Check. Are we spewing here?

[JackleOfCrackle]

Is this spewing? :icon_puke

All effective stacks 100bb. Game is 2/5

Villain is reg TAG/Seems sort of Nitty

He opens MP to $15

I have and decide to make it $55 from SB.

Villain Calls.

Flop is


I raise to 1/2 pot and villain calls.

Turn


I raise again to just over 1/2 he calls

and river


Here a jam is just under a pot size bet. My read was we are beat here when this villain calls Turn so basically need to give up or turn our hand into a bluff. I feel a jam looks super strong repping QQ+ making any T better kicker hard to call. Also I think JJ sometimes can find a fold here?

We Jam it in!


Line check?

 

[quant1986]

Overall I think way too aggressive playing OOP. I think you are right that likely to be beaten when villain calls two streets. Whether to bluff on the river I think depends on your image, if you showed any bluff before, villain 100% called down with JJ or even ATs.

Preflop: I don't think JTs is good candidate to 3bet from SB against MP open. would prefer A5s, KQo those have better blockers

Flop: would prefer smaller as this is bone dry

Turn: would continue to bet small as your hand has SDV and KQ/AQ may fold

River: check/call is better i think

 

[Hujiko]

Preflop 3 bet no problem here


Flop decent flop for you so would bet out and try to get him to fold worse hands that have equity. Think bet size is ok-ish you have also a backdoor flush and a backdoor straight draw and you want folds from Ax hands.

Turn is a complete brick (for you) and villain called with what on the flop he is now likely to have a better hand then yours so would check to him. If one of the backdoor came in (an 8 or a spade) I might continue betting here but now it is spewy against a TAG (and certainly a nitty TAG). If he bets 1/2 or more then the pot I would fold here.

River def not bluff in this spot a TAG called pre-flop, flop and turn he def has a hand like JJ+ and depending on your image hes not going to fold QQ+ and perhaps even not JJ. Would not put a TAG on AT here as that would fold preflop most of the time it is at the bottom of his opening range so he will much that against a 3 bet.

Against a TAG your line is very spewy certainly when you don't have draws.

 

[JackleOfCrackle]

Agreed. Think we have merit for betting flop though knowing we can get floated a lot here by AK AQ 77-99. I do not want to give AK AQ type hands free cards in a 3 bet pot and he is always calling these here so I think we are still valuing/protecting. Turn somewhat bricks so I think we can bet again making life tough for AK AQ even JJ QQ can struggle here with continued pressure knowing river shove is very possible.

River shove at the time, looking at how much is in the pot, felt +EV by how many folds we should be getting from this player. Medium pairs (77-99 unlikely he is holding these but possible as he can always be putting me on AK type hands) can never call. Any T with a better kicker is somewhat hero calling here but I felt we can fold them out 70% of the time? JJ we can sometimes get to make a hero fold in this spot (45%) and QQ + is probably always calling off but I think he 4 bets pre with those hands.

 

[John A]

I'm fine with the 3-bet and you should be 3-betting this from the SB more than calling. But as played you need to be checking a street. Either the flop or the turn. I like betting the flop because your hand is somewhat vulnerable to bad turns, and then checking that turn brick.

As played, just check river. Unless the guy is a mega fish, you should be check/folding river.

 

[cs_rlewis]

Yeah tough spot on the river I think with this exact hand you can check on the river especially if you have better T in your range like AT or KT.
I think we still have to call most bet sizes anyway on the river

 

[mbrenneman0]

when youre turning top pair into a bluff, there is a serious problem with your ranges and frequencies.

what hand do you think villain has that both beats your hand *and* folds to a jam? i think when you add them up, youll find the ones he does fold are vastly outnumbered by the ones that he doesnt fold.

 

[JackleOfCrackle]

when youre turning top pair into a bluff, there is a serious problem with your ranges and frequencies.

what hand do you think villain has that both beats your hand *and* folds to a jam? i think when you add them up, youll find the ones he does fold are vastly outnumbered by the ones that he doesnt fold.

I see what you are saying and I do tend to agree that this is a somewhat spewy line but in saying that I do think we can get folds from better T (mainly what I am trying to do) and with this villain even JJ and QQ can sometimes find a fold as I don't think he sees me playing bluffs this way ever. He would perceive my range here as JJ+ (I did talk to villain after the session). In thinking about what my range should be here I think we put anything that isn't QQ+ or better in an extremely tough spot..

 

[mbrenneman0]

are there any hands in your range here that you would 3bet pre, bet flop, bet turn, then check river?

 

[Hujiko]

I see what you are saying and I do tend to agree that this is a somewhat spewy line but in saying that I do think we can get folds from better T (mainly what I am trying to do) and with this villain even JJ and QQ can sometimes find a fold as I don't think he sees me playing bluffs this way ever. He would perceive my range here as JJ+ (I did talk to villain after the session). In thinking about what my range should be here I think we put anything that isn't QQ+ or better in an extremely tough spot..

I TAG will most if the time fold a better T preflop against a 3 bet so there is little value in continuing betting.

 

[vax1op369]

10 J gets me in a ton of trouble having position. Oob can only make things worse.

 

[Lezaleas]

I'm sorry, but we really blundered that river. I ran a quick analysis and when we shove that river, do you know which villain's hand was right in the middle of his folding/calling range? JTs. When we bet we are only getting called by better and folding worse.
The thing is that this board is horrible for villain and he's forced to bluffcatch with horrible hands. Think about which good hands he really have. He has about 8 sets, about 3 JJs, 2 ATs, and some combos of SCs that double paired or better at a very low frequency, T9s is the most common one. Thats about 15 combos. and he needs those 15 combos to defend his 70 combos that get to the flop.
70 -> 46.66 otf
46.66 -> 30.6 ott
30.6 -> 15.3 otr
See how we just value owned ourselves? That .3 extra is the few combos of JTs he's calling at a mixed frequency.
You need to stop thinking about your hand in terms of absolute strength, just because you have a TPJK doesn't mean your hand sucks, if the board is bad for your opponent your hand is still great no matter what, you just need to beat his range, relative strength.
It's true that with villain being tight we could get some good folds, but our hand is such a bad bluff that it needs much more help than that to be +ev to bet
We should have went for as much value as our mid strength hand can get, and with the flop being so dry something like 1/3, check,1/3 works fine