50nlFR: KK vs flop shove, players yet to act

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
I've been tag. Shover is a fish, I crush his range. BTN is a nit who is either set mining, maybe called with a suited connector or has TT or something. BB is tag over a small sample size.

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP1: $17.75
MP2: $32.90
Hero (CO): $50
BTN: $66.50
SB: $56.85
BB: $50.50
UTG: $63.60
UTG+1: $50
UTG+2: $105.10

Pre-Flop: K
clubnormal.gif
K
diamondnormal.gif
dealt to Hero (CO)
3 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BTN calls $2.50, SB folds, BB calls $2, MP1 calls $2

Flop: ($10.25) 6
spadenormal.gif
5
heartnormal.gif
4
clubnormal.gif
(4 Players)
BB checks, MP1 bets $15.25 and is All-In, Hero ...
 
Jillychemung

Jillychemung

Stacks & Stacks
Loyaler
Joined
Feb 7, 2008
Total posts
8,053
Awards
1
This is one of those situtations where you need solid reads. I take it that if the BTN were not involved you'd have no problem shoving this to isolate against MP1. Look at the risk/reward balance here. A perfect hand and you profit ~$23. But you could easily be in for your stack and drawing to one of the 2 Kings left. I don't think there is any way you can just call this as it leaves you wide open for a queeze. I'd probably fold this one.
 
P

phatjose

Rock Star
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
Total posts
222
Looks like an easy shove to isolate. Any raise we make will commit us to the hand anyway.

If BTN is a standard nit, then his range is pretty much 22-1010 for set mining, and maybe 56s-KQs for flush/straight mining. Depending on just how nitty he is, it might not even include that many of the connectors.

We are somewhere in the neighborhood of a 2-1 favorite against his range, so I probably just stick it in here. Does it suck if he flips over a set of 5s or 78 for a made straight? Sure, but more often he's missing this flop completely and going away without a fight. We might possibly get a call from something like 1010 or 67 anyway, so may as well charge him to do so.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Looks like an easy shove to isolate. Any raise we make will commit us to the hand anyway.

If BTN is a standard nit, then his range is pretty much 22-1010 for set mining, and maybe 56s-KQs for flush/straight mining. Depending on just how nitty he is, it might not even include that many of the connectors.

We are somewhere in the neighborhood of a 2-1 favorite against his range, so I probably just stick it in here. Does it suck if he flips over a set of 5s or 78 for a made straight? Sure, but more often he's missing this flop completely and going away without a fight. We might possibly get a call from something like 1010 or 67 anyway, so may as well charge him to do so.

We're a clear favourite over his range now, but if we shove, his calling range is narrowed pretty much only to hands that beat us.
 
Tygran

Tygran

Cardschat Elite
Joined
Sep 4, 2007
Total posts
1,757
I take it you would snap call without the presence of the button here?

Sucks being in the middle.. I'd have the think that the majority of the time the button will have whiffed.

It's also possible the fish actually hit something but it's probably as likely he has AJ or TK as 78 or 55.

The only hands that have you crushed are 44/55/66/45/56/23/78. Of the connectors I would think 78 is the most likely, others are probably too low for a nit to call with there.

I guess the real question is how aggressively do you think the button would play oesd's (33/77/67/34) or overpairs (88-QQ)? I would have to think he's calling if you call, particularly with the draws and with position. What would he do if you raised? Any reads?


The other big problem here are stack sizes, if you call and he calls, $56 pot to the turn, you have $42 left. Any additional betting commits you. it's more likely he has a draw/draw+pair or overpair here than a made hand.


I was originally going to say raise the flop but then..how much? If you go all in your fold out everything you beat and nothing you don't. If you make it a min raise to $30(ish) you might induce an all-in from the button on both draws and made hands, which you have to call now cause you are pot committed. If the button calls $30 on a draw, and misses the turn, he's going to call your last $20 to see the river. And if he has something along the lines of JQ/QK/AJ etc he's folding it no matter if you call or raise probably. So if you raise you may as well just shove.


So... I think I call this and see what the button does. If he folds, it's easy. If he simply calls behind, you are probably ahead and if you aren't you may just have to pay him off..but you are going to be ahead more than you aren't. If the button decides to raise.. well I would think this is more likely to be a drawing hand than a made hand as a made hand is going to be wanting to extract what he can from you, not end it now. But if you have a read on the button that could be different. Call or fold as your read indicated.

I think you can shove any non-scary turn and fold out the draws having gotten an extra good sized bet in. If the turn is scary then I think you just have to check/fold or check/call if it's small bets. I think this is better than raising on the flop because 1) if you are ahead you win more, 2) he might just fold to the $15 making decision making really easy, 3) he *might* call you with TT/JJ/QQ
 
Last edited:
P

phatjose

Rock Star
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
Total posts
222
We're a clear favourite over his range now, but if we shove, his calling range is narrowed pretty much only to hands that beat us.
Right, but unfortunately we don't have any more information to go on other than what we think his preflop calling range is. The unfortunate disadvantage of being OOP and facing a potential squeeze.

If we call here, we give any drawing hands odds to call, as well as possibly giving the BB odds to call with something like AJ or AQ if he thinks all his outs are clean.

But the other thing to consider, how many turn cards do we actually want to see here? Any 3, 7 or 8 puts 4 to a straight on the board as well as potentially makes another set. Same with a 9 or 10. And can we then get away from the hand if villain pushes in? If we call and button calls, we have $32 behind and the pot is $56.

Really the only turn card we would be happy to see is a King, and maybe a Queen (figuring villain would have 3 bet QQ preflop).

So our options are narrowed down to pretty much folding or shoving.

Edit: Ok, so after running the numbers I am changing my mind here. If we shove and win, we win $22.75 give or take. Based on his preflop range we are 65% to win, which would give us a +$14.9 expected win. When we lose, we lose our entire stack, or $50. That happens 35% of the time, or -$17.50. So this looks to be slightly negative to shove.
 
Last edited:
premierplayer

premierplayer

Visionary
Joined
Feb 19, 2007
Total posts
504
Id shove... really im putting him on some low overpair 77-1010 and the all in is to protect from someone chasing the str8. he may have 1010 or jj
 
OzExorcist

OzExorcist

Broomcorn's uncle
Joined
Aug 6, 2007
Total posts
8,583
Awards
1
My gut reaction is to shove, because:

- We're hardly going to fold this.

- Our life becomes all kinds of difficult if we just flat call. We give the other two players odds to draw at us, and with the amount of money in the pot, we're almost obliged to call a shove from one of the remaining villains anyway.

- That leaves raising, and about the only reasonable raise is a shove.

None of the options are perfect, but the shove seems to blow the least to me.

Is it a bit trite just to file this one under "Sometimes you're just gonna go broke" if it doesn't work out?
 
rwilson

rwilson

Rock Star
Joined
Jan 15, 2008
Total posts
126
I had a very very similar hand to this last night playing 100NL.. I get dealt KK.. low coordinated flop came out (I think it was exactly the same.. 6,5,4 rainbow, or it may have been 7,6,4 rainbow..anyways) almost exactly the same scenario. I'd raised preflop obviously, and got two callers. The low flop came and the villain (first player to act) bet out pot (he's very very LAG, he's playing like he's on tilt and quite possibly is). Middle position called and I came over top of both with a shove. BIG MISTAKE. Not sure why I did it, but I'm blaming the fact that I was up way too late playing poker (I was at that stage where you're actually trying to take a nap in between hands ;) ).

The original bettor (villain) snap called, MP folded.. the villain turned over a set of 6's.. and I said goodbye to my stack.

Anyways, moral to the story is don't shove here. (why oh why did i do it?)

Moral #2 Tired + Tilt = Severe bankroll Damage
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
never finished this one - I called the shove with the logic that I'd fold if someone else put money in since I'm basically crushed if they do, but still ended up getting my stack in against BTN's flopped straight.
 
Top