50nlFR KK valuetown?

[ChuckTs]

I'm tag, maybe a little aggressive overall (multitabling, not sure).
Villain is like a 22/5 after <100 hands, if you need other stats ask.

Can we value bet this river? Thoughts on play up to the river?

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $82.65
BTN: $25.85
SB: $50.20
BB: $22.70
Hero (UTG): $54
UTG+1: $53.25
UTG+2: $70.80
MP1: $48
MP2: $21.55

Pre-Flop: K

K

dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $1.75, 6 folds, SB calls $1.50, BB folds

Flop: ($4) J

T

9

(2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.75, SB calls $2.75

Turn: ($9.50) 5

(2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6.50, SB calls $6.50

River: ($22.50) 4

(2 Players)
SB checks, Hero ...

 

[c9h13no3]

I think this river is an easy bet/fold. No draws completed what-so-ever. You've either been slowplayed hardcore, or are ahead. If you were being slowplayed by JT or 99, I think you would have at least heard from them by the river. This is looking a lot like QJ, QT, or 98.

/me value bets 10$

The main thing I don't like about the hand is the weaker bet on the flop. There are so many hands that have draws or a pair and a draw that will call a big bet while you're a 2:1 favorite. I like a potsized bet on the flop.

 

[t1riel]

It seems that your opponent is either slowpalying a monster or missed their draw. If the villian had a monster he/she would have bet something on the river. If it was me, I would check. But a value bet here would be a good idea.

 

[blankoblanco]

If it was me, I would check. But a value bet here would be a good idea.

huh?

anyway, yeah, bet/fold river against most villains especially a 22/5 who is clearly not good, and not towards the aggressive end of that spectrum. i play same up til river except i make it slightly more on flop and slightly more on turn, but it's not really a big deal

 

[ChuckTs]

yep, I realized pretty soon after posting this that it was a pretty clear bet-fold situation. My biggest issue during the hand was thinking about what hands would call me that I had beat.

I checked behind and he showed QQ.

 

[dj11]

Nice that he didn't put it to you, and the check was a trap check. His thinking probably went along the same lines as yours; Scary board, already made hand?

If he had bet out would he have taken it down? Would he bet out? I think he was dis swayed from that thought by your aggressive betting to that point. He had to give you credit for the possible KQ, in which case he could not sanely consider bluffing the nuts.

His cold calls had to drive you crazy. Looks very much like he had the made hand, and was letting you do all the work.

 

[zebranky]

check and see

No real point in being aggressive - either you have the best hand (and I doubt any hand weaker than yours will call another bet after the way you've been firing away) and you win the showdown, or he's slowplaying you and you're only going to be throwing away money. I think it's a clear check and see situation. I really don't like the bet-fold strategy because you're either making a bet that isn't going to be called, or you're walking into his trap - I don't see the value in playing that way.

 

[blankoblanco]

No real point in being aggressive - either you have the best hand (and I doubt any hand weaker than yours will call another bet after the way you've been firing away) and you win the showdown, or he's slowplaying you and you're only going to be throwing away money. I think it's a clear check and see situation. I really don't like the bet-fold strategy because you're either making a bet that isn't going to be called, or you're walking into his trap - I don't see the value in playing that way.

this is a bad way of thinking, and you must be burning money in missed value bets. so many people are like you, so anxious to just show their hand down because they figure they'll be happy if they win the pot at all and they don't want to risk being trapped! oh no! poker isn't about winning pots, it's about winning money, and every time you miss an obvious value bet you're basically losing money due to fear

a) not many people c/c their big hands on the turn here when the board is this drawy and then check the river. if you're just going to see traps everywhere instead of reading what their line is telling you in its highest probability, you're never going to maximize your potential in poker

b) he calls with AJ/KJ/QJ/QQ virtually every time, and can easily call with any other T or 9 he called the turn with because the river changed nothing except every draw missed. step 1: he puts us on a missed draw... step 2: he calls

 

[zebranky]

this is a bad way of thinking, and you must be burning money in missed value bets. so many people are like you, so anxious to just show their hand down because they figure they'll be happy if they win the pot at all and they don't want to risk being trapped! oh no! poker isn't about winning pots, it's about winning money, and every time you miss an obvious value bet you're basically losing money due to fear

a) not many people c/c their big hands on the turn here when the board is this drawy and then check the river. if you're just going to see traps everywhere instead of reading what their line is telling you in its highest probability, you're never going to maximize your potential in poker

b) he calls with AJ/KJ/QJ/QQ virtually every time, and can easily call with any other T or 9 he called the turn with because the river changed nothing except every draw missed. step 1: he puts us on a missed draw... step 2: he calls

You're probably right - tournament play is destroying my cash game, because, except in the later stages, its more important not to lose chips than it is to win the same amount. Still, in the above situation, I think the check-see is still best, if nothing else because (and I admit the badguy might not know this) Chuck isn't likely to be bluffing with the river bet. I don't think a losing hand calls, and I am always concerned when someone flat-calls me to the river and checks. It just reeks of flopped set to me.

 

[c9h13no3]

It just reeks of flopped set to me.

It is very rare for a villain to check a flopped set on the river. The risk of us just checking behind him is too great.

We were ahead of his range on the flop so we bet. The turn changed nothing, so we bet, since we were still ahead of his range. The river changed nothing. Why stop betting now?