$50NL KQ suited aggro flop

[Jagsti]

Villain is semi loose/passive with stats of 25/11/1.5 over 100 hands. No other reads on him. I've lost one medium sized pot in this session and have played prety tight. The flop is a very interesting one, I get c/r here.... what's my next move? I have tp, decent kicker and flush draw.

pokerstars GAME #12114631620: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/09/17 - 17:25:12 (ET)
Table 'Euporie IV' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Aceo2 ($65.95 in chips)
Seat 2: vengeur ($78.65 in chips)
Seat 3: docteur77 ($12.80 in chips)
Seat 4: Durban-Skunk ($8.40 in chips)
Seat 5: Duke748 ($46.10 in chips)
Seat 6: R@nTAnpl@N ($41.70 in chips)
vengeur: posts small blind $0.25
docteur77: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Duke748 [Qc Kc]
Durban-Skunk: folds
Duke748: raises $1 to $1.50
R@nTAnpl@N: folds
Aceo2: folds
vengeur: calls $1.25
docteur77: folds
*** FLOP *** [Jc Kd 4c]
vengeur: checks
Duke748: bets $2.50
vengeur: raises $8 to $10.50
Duke748: ????

 

[joeeagles]

This is one of those situations in cash games where I'm not sure if you should play for stacks or not (shove). His big raise should mean that you're behind. Because you say he's semi/loose passive it could be 2 pair (he could have called your raise with KJ or even K4s), or a set. There is a chance it's AK (at 50nl not everyone 3bet AK PF and you say he's passive), but not likely.

His raise has priced you out of a flush draw (you're 2 to 1 to call), however, unless he has a set, I think this is worth at least a call because you have 12 outs to improve and IO could justify a call. If he has 2 pair you make a better one if you hit. The problem with calling this is that, if you miss, you can expect a huge bet on the turn that not only will probably, again, price you out of a flush, but it will also give you no fold equity if you shove. Another problem is that, if you hit the flush on the turn, it might kill your action and you'll fail to make any significant amount of chips after that.

I'm curious to see what the regular cash game posters suggest you to do here, since this seems like a spot where you could shove since you have FE, and play for stacks if he calls. Flat calling, although not the greatest play, has some merits because you have position on him. Folding w/o seeing a turn at least, seems just too weak in this spot. But maybe it's a leak of mine in cash games? For sure, considering he's passive, the check/raise OOP is a very strong play, one that makes me think this player isn't folding to a shove.

 

[stormswa]

I shove.

 

[ChuckTs]

Even against this range

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.922% 53.41% 00.51% 18507 177.00 { KcQc }
Hand 1: 46.078% 45.57% 00.51% 15789 177.00 { JJ, 44, AKs, KJs, K4s, QcTc, AKo, KJo, K4o, QTo }

We're a bit better than a coinflip. I shove here happily knowing we have some fold equity vs AK and QT, and that we've got lots of outs vs the hands that call us.

 

[dwbrown7680]

Yeah I honestly have to say that I would push here, given your stack size and the raise that you're faced with. I really feel like he has K,10s or Q,10s, although there is the small chance that he's holding 4's. Either way you have more than enough outs to win the hand with, you still have FE at that point so push, push, push. Now, if you had a stack his size, I would tell you to reraise to $25 instead of pushing, either inducing his fold, giving yourself a chance at the rest of his chips if the club does hit, and still giving you the chance to check behind if you miss the turn and try for the flush one last time.

 

[Jagsti]

I'm quite surprised by the comments here. I was sure I was gonna get the majority of views saying fold this hand. Needless to say I pushed this hand on the flop. I was fortunate enough to hit a flush taking the pot, he hit a set of 4's on the flop. Now I have difficulty putting villains on hand ranges, so I reviewed this hand in PT later as I felt I played it quite bad. When reviewing this hand and the stats on villain, it would seem obvious that the only hands he would check raise on the flop would be 44, KJ, JJ. So I don't know why I pushed the flop, I don't even think I put him on a range of hands, maybe I thought it was just too strong a hand to let go.

Now when I look at the posts here, especially Chuck's, and we put the hand range in to pokerstove (something like JJ+, AK, 44, QT,KJ etc) I'm actually a marginal favourite. Now this kinda makes me feel better because it justifies my action . I still feel I played this bad, but it's another lesson to me regarding hand ranges. Thanks for the posts guys.

 

[stormswa]

I'm quite surprised by the comments here. I was sure I was gonna get the majority of views saying fold this hand. Needless to say I pushed this hand on the flop. I was fortunate enough to hit a flush taking the pot, he hit a set of 4's on the flop. Now I have difficulty putting villains on hand ranges, so I reviewed this hand in PT later as I felt I played it quite bad. When reviewing this hand and the stats on villain, it would seem obvious that the only hands he would check raise on the flop would be 44, KJ, JJ. So I don't know why I pushed the flop, I don't even think I put him on a range of hands, maybe I thought it was just too strong a hand to let go.

Now when I look at the posts here, especially Chuck's, and we put the hand range in to pokerstove (something like JJ+, AK, 44, QT,KJ etc) I'm actually a marginal favourite. Now this kinda makes me feel better because it justifies my action . I still feel I played this bad, but it's another lesson to me regarding hand ranges. Thanks for the posts guys.

results, results, results....

correct plays and results of the hands are two different things. All we can do is make the best play, you are letting the results cloud the best decision.