50nl; gut straight flush draw vs huuuuge push

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Villain is 41/6/4 through <20 hands and I've been pretty tight as usual. MP1 is an unknown.

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed)

BB ($20.20)
UTG ($47.50)
UTG+1 ($30)
MP1 ($56.35)
MP2 ($46.15)
MP3 ($60.40)
CO ($40.75)
Button ($50.50)
Hero ($50.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A
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, 5
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. UTG+1 posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, UTG+1 (poster) checks, MP1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2.75) 7
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, 3
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, 2
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(5 players)
Hero bets $1.75, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $1.75, CO raises to $40, Hero ...
 
KyleJRM

KyleJRM

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Total posts
735
Villain is 41/6/4 through <20 hands and I've been pretty tight as usual. MP1 is an unknown.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed)

BB ($20.20)
UTG ($47.50)
UTG+1 ($30)
MP1 ($56.35)
MP2 ($46.15)
MP3 ($60.40)
CO ($40.75)
Button ($50.50)
Hero ($50.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A
heart.gif
, 5
heart.gif
. UTG+1 posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, UTG+1 (poster) checks, MP1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2.75) 7
club.gif
, 3
heart.gif
, 2
heart.gif
(5 players)
Hero bets $1.75, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $1.75, CO raises to $40, Hero ...

He's clearly got a hand that he wants to protect against hands such as yours. Set or large overpair. If it's a set, he has can counterfeit some of your outs along the way, but you essentially have 12, and there is a decent chance that MP1 has two of them with the flat call on the flush-draw board.

It is going to cost you $38.25 to call and try to win about $45. Given the possibility that MP1 has some of your outs and getting your flush redrawn by a set-turned-full, I'd probably fold, but it's a very marginal situation and either one is probably fine.
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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A fold resulting in annoyance by the retarded villain.
 
zachvac

zachvac

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You're getting almost exactly the right odds to call if all 12 will give you the pot. If he has like JJ (and is an idiot) then you have an extra 3, but you can't assume that. I'd fold here. That 41 and the fact that it was limped preflop says you can pretty much put him on any 2 cards, as such he probably has something like 2 pair or perhaps a set. It of course could be a bluff (or a semi-bluff, maybe 45h, thinking that his 15 outs may make him a favorite) but all in all I'd say it's close to even money either way. When I have the chance to flip an $80 coin, I'll sit back and wait for a better spot.
 
zachvac

zachvac

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A fold resulting in annoyance by the retarded villain.

Well I like this play because I know he doesn't know my cards and will make this overbet when I have the nuts as well. Seen it happen time and time again, scare cards come and they overbet, not realizing that made hands call and they fold out all the hands they have beat. But hey, it's why they're playing 25c/50c, and probably not profiting.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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I'm not even sure it's looking as pretty as a coinflip here. His range is huge, and although I don't think a set/2 pair does this very often, I think a weak overpair/bluff/one pair hand does this even less.

I called here and immediately regretted it. Another one of those no-discipline things :/

Anyways I got lucky and hit my flush on the river vs 33 here, but still hate my call.
 
S

switch0723

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there is no need to hate it if you won :D
 
J

jeffred1111

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I hate your call too. We have approx 3 cents invested and this IS a set more often than not (all low cards, CO limped and people start raising around the 88 mark), wich means that he has redraw. Would be sick to call, hit flush and have the board pair huh ?
 
GunslingerZ

GunslingerZ

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Easy note on the guy: WAY too scared to play strong hands on wet boards, doesn't want to make any decisions later.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

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I don't know - you're not in such bad shape versus a set, and his hand is a draw that you have crushed quite a lot of the time. It's not a terrible call by any means. Betting 10x the pot, however, pretty much always is.
 
jaketrevvor

jaketrevvor

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or a semi-bluff, maybe 45h

Preflop: Hero is SB with A
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, 5
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.

Hmm..

Although you are actually a fave against an overpair going crazy, in this absence of reads here I'm just too freaked out by a set to which you are a 2:1 dog to make this call. If this guy goes crazy wait for a better spot (ideally when you have the nuts :eek:) then bust him imo. But lovely result :)
 
dufferdevon

dufferdevon

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The best part is, the other guy is now on tilt and thinking you're a donk for calling him. Even though he put himself in that situation.
 
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