50NL AQo, top pair on paired board.

[SeanyJ]

Villain is at 23/11.5/inf over only 26 hands
I'm at 23.8/16.7/.83 (yes .83 I don't know why )

pokerstars Game #XXXXXXXXXX: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/05/29 - 02:32:48 (ET)
Table 'Neufang' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: 83184 ($48.70 in chips)
Seat 2: SeanyJ24 ($72.85 in chips)
Seat 3: Mattywils ($67.25 in chips)
Seat 4: drewwid ($51 in chips)
Seat 5: AHB.Dragon ($13.50 in chips)
Seat 6: Highcardk ($55.70 in chips)
Seat 7: EZ_Money0122 ($48 in chips)
Seat 8: Rushton14 ($50.30 in chips)
EZ_Money0122: posts small blind $0.25
Rushton14: posts big blind $0.50
TyrannyNow: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SeanyJ24 [As Qd]
83184 has timed out
83184: folds
83184 is sitting out
SeanyJ24: raises $1 to $1.50
Mattywils: calls $1.50
drewwid: folds
AHB.Dragon: folds
Highcardk: folds
EZ_Money0122: folds
Rushton14: folds
*** FLOP *** [Qs 8d 8h]
83184 has returned
SeanyJ24: bets $2.50
Mattywils: raises $6.50 to $9
SeanyJ24: calls $6.50
*** TURN *** [Qs 8d 8h] [4s]
SeanyJ24: checks
Mattywils: checks
*** RIVER *** [Qs 8d 8h 4s] [5s]
SeanyJ24: checks
Mattywils: bets $14
SeanyJ24: ...?

Would be really be checking behind on the turn if he had an 8? I really wasn't sure what to do on this hand when it happened.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

I think you need to call this. He could very easily have a lower Q than you or just air.

 

[c9h13no3]

Hero snap calls.

When you called the raise on the flop, were you really expecting a free ride to showdown? This is a missed gutshot bluff-raise, worse queen, smaller pocket pair just about every time.

 

[F Paulsson]

People like to cold-call with PPs for set-value. They also, in my experience, like raising them on paired boards without an ace on them; in part, I presume, because they realize that a paired board is less likely to have hit you, and in part to protect. So a rough guess as to his range after he raise the flop - and I'm being generous with the 87 and 98 because I don't think they're a part of his range very often:

22+,AQs,KQs,QJs,98s,87s,AQo,98o,87o

From experience, this is also going to be a bunch of ace-high hands that thinks they can move you off a hand as well. I've seen it a lot more often than I'd have expected (being raised on the flop by AJ in a spot like this).

But then he proceeds to check behind on the turn after you call the flop. This is either going to be a horrible, horrible slowplay, or he freaks out because he didn't expect a call when he raised with 3-3 or QJ. But after he checks behind on the turn, you still don't bet the river, and now he bets.

If he's somewhat competent, he will presumably check behind his weak made hands on the river unless he thinks he can get you to fold something better, or bet if he thinks you can call with something worse. His range for betting the river, thus, is polarized to his strongest and weakest hands. There's some risk that he backed into a flush as well with some random ace-high spades hand that he decided to raise the flop with.

But in general, you crush the range he bets the river with. So call. There may even be a case for making a small checkraise (and folding to a push), but I'd have to play around in Stove to see if that's viable. Folding to a push is never fun, but given how scary the board must be for him as well, there's very little risk that he'd dare his entire stack on a bluff if we checkraise the river.

Anyway, folding is out of the question.

 

[robwhufc]

Would be really be checking behind on the turn if he had an 8?

That's how I would play it if I had an 8, try as hard as possible to make you think that I didn't have one.

Against a sole opponent though that has called a raise, you have to say on the balance of probabilities that he hasn't got one.

 

[robwhufc]

So call. There may even be a case for making a small checkraise (and folding to a push), but I'd have to play around in Stove to see if that's viable.

Seriously? You would think of raising him, then folding? Opponent has got $67.50 to begin with, has bet $24.50 so has got $43 left. How much are you going to bet which will still let you get away from (and not make a crying call)?

IMO the only decision here is whether to play safe and call, or to put him all in (or to bet with a view of calling all-in - same thing really). If we're having second thoughts calling here with AQ, you'd have to wonder whether someone is going to call a re-raise with less. And of course he could have fluked a runner runner, so i'd lean towards calling.

 

[F Paulsson]

Seriously? You would think of raising him, then folding? Opponent has got $67.50 to begin with, has bet $24.50 so has got $43 left. How much are you going to bet which will still let you get away from (and not make a crying call)?

Min-reraise. If he pushes to our checkraise, that'll leave us with odds of ~105:30 or 3:1, which is hardly yet a case for making a crying call. That said, the idea of making that raise depends on the range that he'll make a crying call with being bigger than the range that he'd push all-in with. I don't know if it is, but it might be.

A guess:

the range he'd continue with (call or raise) after we checkraise the river is:
88+,55-44,AsKs,AQ,AsJs,AsTs,KQs,QJs,98s,87s

... and versus that range, we're only 49% to win, which means that it's a bad idea. However, if we remove some less likely hands from the range (e.g. AA/KK and perhaps AsTs) we suddenly jump up to 60%, which puts us solidly in the black. Of course, being bluffed out of the pot is the worst thing that could happen, so if we're worried at all about him making a move on us after we checkraise with less than TPTK, then we should really just call.

Re-raising all-in would be a very significant mistake since the range he'd call that with is crushing us, unless I'm making some seriously weird assumptions about how he plays. It doesn't take much to tip the range above to us clearly losing; all it takes is to take away the medium pocket pairs (99-JJ). And I don't think he'd call a river checkraise shove with TT on this board. If he's also capable of folding QJ, we're down to 23% equity.

 

[SeanyJ]

Heh, I totally forgot that I even posted this. Here are the results,

*** RIVER *** [Qs 8d 8h 4s] [5s]
SeanyJ24: checks
Mattywils: bets $14
SeanyJ24: calls $14
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Mattywils: shows [Qc Kd] (two pair, Queens and Eights)
SeanyJ24: shows [As Qd] (two pair, Queens and Eights - Ace kicker)
SeanyJ24 collected $47.35 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $49.75 | Rake $2.40
Board [Qs 8d 8h 4s 5s]
Seat 1: 83184 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: SeanyJ24 showed [As Qd] and won ($47.35) with two pair, Queens and Eights
Seat 3: Mattywils showed [Qc Kd] and lost with two pair, Queens and Eights
Seat 4: drewwid folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: AHB.Dragon folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Highcardk (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: EZ_Money0122 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: Rushton14 (big blind) folded before Flop