$50NL: AJs flops TPTK out of position

F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I've thought about this hand for about an hour now. Here's what happened:

I open to $1.50 UTG (this is a 6-max game) with AhJh. Arguably an aggressive open from that position, but let's not get entangled in that, now.

The CO calls. Everyone else folds. We see a flop with $3.50 in the pot, and the cards are Js8c2d, giving me top pair, top kicker but no backdoor flushdraw. I lead out for $3 and the CO raises to $8. The pot is now $14.

CO is a tight player over the small set of hands we've played together. I'm hesitant to draw too many conclusions about it because of the sample size, but it at least makes it unlikely that he has a very wide range preflop.

Without making too much of an assumption about his preflop range, I can at least say that his range shouldn't be wider than this when he raises the flop:

PPs: 22, 88-JJ
Suited connectors: KJs, QJs, T9s, J8s
The rest: AJo/s

PokerStove tells me I'm 58% to win vs. his range.

Question number 1: Is my estimate of his range plausible? It's true that a solid opponent probably doesn't coldcall AJo in the CO, but then again, the same holds true for J8s. Furthermore, am I correct in thinking that 99 and TT might raise this (in their eyes relatively safe) flop the way he did?

Question number 2: Where do I go from here? Folding when I'm 58% to win is out of the question. Pushing, however, seems bad too:

If I push, I expect him to fold the worst part of his range and call with the best part. I think he'd be hard pressed to call a shove with KJ or QJ. So if I push and he calls, PokerStove brings my equity down to 31%. Not good.

So I called.

What's my plan for the rest of the hand?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I think you should possibly include some un-paired overs (KQ, AQ, maybe AT) in his range, as its possible he's doing this with a draw to a bigger pair once in a while. If you've been c-betting a lot, he may be trying to pick a c-bet off. But since those types of raises aren't that common, and it makes up a small part of his range, we'll ignore it for now.

As far as the plan for the turn, it depends what it brings. Assuming its blank, I'd check. The draws here aren't that strong (10-16% to win on the river), and I don't like bloating the pot up with just top pair.

Problem is, this hand might be all in by the river. If he bets ~10$, and you just call, you're looking at a 34$ pot with about 30$ left behind. It'd be tough to call off your whole stack on the river, since it may possibly bring cards that will be tough for you to fight through.

Can we safely assume that if we check to him, he will check behind with a draw?

But yeah, I'd probably give it the whole WA/WB treatment unless the turn came something like a Q, K, or another A/J. If a Q hits, I think a check/fold may be the right line, since that completes the only draw, and puts QJ ahead of us.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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God I hate these spots.

I think in general I'm calling the flop (we really don't want to bloat the pot vs his range), and check-calling a turn, then probably folding the river UI if he 3-barrels me.

As for his actual range, I'm lost here too. The only thing that really takes this line from a tag is a set, slowplayed overpair, or some middle pair like 99/TT, but those last two most probably 3-bet pf to isolate. I think some pt stats would help here to see exactly how he plays - he could be tight, but still aggressive to float you and play his position, though that's not very common.

blagh.
 
NineLions

NineLions

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NL?

Moving to the dark side, FP?


I'd be inclined to call, and call reasonable down too.

One thing that you don't mention though that might have a bearing too besides villain's stats is how you've played on this table. If you've been on a card rush and appeared LAG, that opens up villain's range.
 
B

baconn

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Doubt villian is on a flush draw, why reraise if on a draw? he probably has the same hand as you, AJ. Keep calling.
 
A

alan1983

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Doubt villian is on a flush draw, why reraise if on a draw? he probably has the same hand as you, AJ. Keep calling.

Lots of people could raise on draws here. It can get you a free ride till river and fold equity on flop.

That said, this is very often 1010-99-other jack, its 6handed and the flop is quite safe for any of these hands, so theres nothing too alarming for me yet.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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What sucks so desperately about this spot is that my flop call is, in some manner of speaking, actually a call for my entire stack. Against hands that I beat, I'm not going to get to win a big pot. Most of the times all the money goes in is when I'm beat.
 
tenbob

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I open to $1.50 UTG (this is a 6-max game) with AhJh. Arguably an aggressive open from that position, but let's not get entangled in that, now.

The CO calls. Everyone else folds. We see a flop with $3.50 in the pot, and the cards are Js8c2d, giving me top pair, top kicker but no backdoor flushdraw. I lead out for $3 and the CO raises to $8. The pot is now $14.

Ok here's my stab at this one. Without getting over complicated with hand ranges here, we beat very little. KJ,QJ and tie with AJ. 1010, against even a relatively tight player will 3-bet pre-flop especially with position on you. Hands that beat us are lots, I ignore J8 as an option against a tight player, AQ and several of the underpairs float here "occasionally" and not as a standard, and generally dont leave the door open so widely for a call/raise.

More often than not we see either a slow played AA or 88/22. Looking at this in the cold light of day, call here means if we get bet at for value on the turn and river then we have to look it up. If villian throws $10 on the flop and $15 on the river this hand has just become very expensive, and is tantamount to stacking off with TPTK, which is something that we strive not to do in full stacked nl ring games. I fold this flop.

In reality though, cause i post better than i play, i call the flop and usually fold to any relatively big bet on the turn. The problem is when villian is smart enough to bet small enough to get us to call down light, and big enough to bloat the pot beyond what i want it to be.
 
Tygran

Tygran

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Yeah this is one of those nasty spots...

You don't beat a whole lot.

Some more info would help... do you have PT stats on him? How aggressive does he view you? Do you think he would interpret your flop bet as a standard cbet with overs and play back at you?

In the absence of the above information the most logical hand from a TAG with this line is a set. It's a rainbow flop with no obvious draws and doubtful that most TAG's would have called a raise with something that hit 2 pair here. Would also make sense if he had another AJ. I suppose he could be betting a draw (9T maybe?) but that's a very aggressive play. I imagine he would have raised an overpair preflop (but maybe not..particularly with QQ). Something like 88-TT might fit this too... that's about the best you can hope for. Could have overs (AK/AQ/KQ) as well and just think you are cbetting air.

I think I'd put him on a set or on a pp like 99 or TT but lots of other possibilities.

I'm calling the flop, and ch-calling a reasonable turn bet assuming we don't improve. Same on the river but folding to a big river bet. If he has something like TT he may slow down on the turn/river. Of course if he has a set already hitting an ace on the turn could be the worst possible thing that could happen. meh. If you get to showdown you should have some good notes on him at least right? :rolleyes:


I guess you could also block bet the turn and fold to a reraise here. It takes some balls to double barrel you there without a strong hand and probably gets you out of the hand a little cheaper since we really don't want to get stacked with TPTK.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Looking at this in the cold light of day, call here means if we get bet at for value on the turn and river then we have to look it up.
Yeah, this is what I meant when I said that calling the flop is sort of a call for my entire stack. I can't make this call if I don't want to "play for stacks."

Tygran: Not many hands with him. Enough to notice that he doesn't play a majority of his hands, but I think I had something like 10 hands on him, 10% VPIP and PFR and infinite AF, meaning basically that he had raised first in on one hand and taken the pot down with a c-bet.

A block bet on the turn is actually not a bad idea. If I get called, the river becomes a tough spot but in general, I don't think many players raise twice with nothing. I'm too new at NL to know how standard such a move is. As in, is it obvious what I'm doing and why?
 
Tygran

Tygran

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A block bet on the turn is actually not a bad idea. If I get called, the river becomes a tough spot but in general, I don't think many players raise twice with nothing. I'm too new at NL to know how standard such a move is. As in, is it obvious what I'm doing and why?

In this spot with neither of you really having reads on the other, no it's not at all obvious. If you were to block bet it and get reraised again I think the majority of the time you are up against a strong hand. If he is bluffing you here then he is extremely loose and will most likely be demonstrating that fact again in short order. A well placed block bet is very difficult to differentiate from a simple value bet.

If he simply flat calls, then I think the 99/TT (or even JQ/JK) type hands are looking more likely... majority of the time a set will reraise you again here. What to do on the river with a flat call? Hard to say... whatever you think will allow you to get to showdown the cheapest.
 
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