[50nl 6max] Flopped set on monotone board

Jagsti

Jagsti

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Villain is unkown with 10 hands played, his stats are pretty meaningless.
I don't think this hand needs a lot of analysis in all honesty, but I'll post some thoughts a little later and see what you guys think.

OK then flop line please?

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $55.20
BTN: $49.25
SB: $54.75
BB: $50
Hero (UTG): $50.55
MP: $27.15

Pre-Flop: Q
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Q
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dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $2, MP calls $2, CO folds, BTN raises to $8, 2 folds, Hero raises to $21.50, MP folds, BTN calls $13.50

Flop: ($45.75) 3
clubnormal.gif
Q
clubnormal.gif
J
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(2 Players)
Hero?
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Just shove.

$45.75 left in the pot, ~$29 left in your stack. KK/AA are tagging along, as are any strong flush draws, esp AK with a club.
 
Mehman

Mehman

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Your ahead> Shove > get sucked out > /cry poker is rigged imo.
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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LOL, it hardly matters what the flop is at all given the PF action.

As flopped, easy push. I don't understand villain's cc of your 4bet for about half his stack. For these stack sizes, it should be push or fold imo.
 
SavagePenguin

SavagePenguin

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Shove like a Sumo.

You're probably in the lead now so get your money in while you're goof. You might get called by someone with a flush draw (which will only hit 1/3 of the times), or K/K+.
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

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I'll post some thoughts a little later and see what you guys think.

Better be interesting, cos this is a really boring one. We've had losads of these Sets on Flush Board hand threads lately :(
 
tenbob

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Absolute total routine check. Then you can call his shove :)







(joke fyi) shove.....
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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We're only trailing one solitary hand in villain's likely range (AcKc), and even then we have outs. This is a really trivial shove, sorry that villain either had AcKc or something like KcKx that hit the turn/river. ;)
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

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Ok, I know it's an easy decision to push this, and most of would will do this all day long.

I did and and he insta called with AK, holding the Ac.

Now the purpose of this post was to make a suggestion to see what you guys think. Lets say we suspect a villain to have a nut fl dr, if we push on the flop, it's an insta call because 'he thinks' he has at least 15 outs for the winning hand. If we check and he chks behind and the turn is a blank, then we have cut his odds dramatically to call a shove on the turn, thus he makes a big mistake. I know this is not the greatest example as this is a 4bet pot, but if it was a 3 bet pot is there any merits in playing a hand in a way we reduce his odds, and let him make the mistake?
 
tenbob

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This is a poor example imo. We can do this in 3bet pots, with less obvious draws out there. The problem here is that if the club hits the turn we can be bluffed out lots, if the board is safe and we know for a good degree of certainty that a weak line will get shoved on then yea, we can check the flop. But doing that is certainly board dependant and read dependant, certainly something I would not consider in a hand like this.
 
ChuckTs

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The thing is we're a huge favourite and don't need to wait for the turn for better equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.787% 75.47% 01.32% 23161 405.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 23.213% 21.89% 01.32% 6719 405.00 { KK+, JJ, AKs, AKo }

That range may not be %100 accurate, but you get the idea. We're a huge fav. over any plausible range here really.

Waiting for the turn is best for when we're a marginal favourite on the flop and can change to a much bigger favourite on the turn. The only example I can think of is the TT hand in SSHE but that's a limit hand and is slightly different.
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

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. If we check and he chks behind and the turn is a blank
Wouldn't that be fantastic, checking behind on pokerstars on a 3 flush board, and then seeing the turn NOT putting a 4th card of the same suit on the board. Has anyone actually done that and got away with it? I know I certainly haven't.

Maybe checking means he's making a mistake calling on the river, but if you decide you want to get all the chips in the pot (because you think you are favourite) then what does it matter which street it's on? I'd rather get them in if when I thought I was ahead (now), then when I thought I was behind. Add to the fact that a fold from him (there is no way in reality that we can know or suspect that he is on a flush draw from the information available) isn't a bad result, then it's an easy enough decision for me.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

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Rob, have you eat 3 shredded wheat today or something!

Anyways, as Liam pointed out, this was certainly not the greatest example of a scenario I would of liked to discuss.

Against villains who are holding big fl draws/combo draws, I think sometimes we make a decision easier for them by pushing. I will endeavour to find a suitable example in my database to discuss the issue further and not to annoy experienced posters :p.
 
V

viking999

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Lets say we suspect a villain to have a nut fl dr, if we push on the flop, it's an insta call because 'he thinks' he has at least 15 outs for the winning hand. If we check and he chks behind and the turn is a blank, then we have cut his odds dramatically to call a shove on the turn, thus he makes a big mistake. I know this is not the greatest example as this is a 4bet pot, but if it was a 3 bet pot is there any merits in playing a hand in a way we reduce his odds, and let him make the mistake?

I see no reason to assume he has a club. What if he has AA no club, decides to do the very same thing as you, and then a club comes on the turn? Bye bye, $28.

I understand that you want him to make a mistake. Well, you have a problem. You can't. And waiting for a chance at getting him to make a mistake on the turn might be more of a mistake on your part (as explained above in the AA scenario). The best you can do is come as close as possible to getting him to make a mistake. Make his odds as bad as possible and make it impossible for you to make a mistake by getting all your chips in now. Don't confuse right decision and best decision. Calling your all-in might be the right decision for your opponent, but his best decision is checking behind your check. Don't give him the opportunity to make the best decision.
 
F Paulsson

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Ok, I know it's an easy decision to push this, and most of would will do this all day long.

I did and and he insta called with AK, holding the Ac.

Now the purpose of this post was to make a suggestion to see what you guys think. Lets say we suspect a villain to have a nut fl dr, if we push on the flop, it's an insta call because 'he thinks' he has at least 15 outs for the winning hand. If we check and he chks behind and the turn is a blank, then we have cut his odds dramatically to call a shove on the turn, thus he makes a big mistake. I know this is not the greatest example as this is a 4bet pot, but if it was a 3 bet pot is there any merits in playing a hand in a way we reduce his odds, and let him make the mistake?
Are you check/folding if the turn is another club?

If not, then the money is going in anyway. He's not folding AcKd on the turn even if you push there either. I think you may be overthinking this.

Unless you're planning on folding to a club on the turn, or you reasonably suspect that he'll actually fold something that has a real chance of beating you when you bet a blank turn (which I don't believe is the case), all the money is going in after this flop.

Whether it goes in on the flop, on the turn or the river, is really a formality at this point. The cards will be dealt the same way, the pot will be the same size, and the winner will be the same person.
 
ChuckTs

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I don't think Jagsti's concern was with this hand but with the general situation where we're up against a big draw and our equity isn't that good...he just chose a bad example to illustrate his point with.

This is obviously a clear shove, but what he's alluding to is a spot where we're not much of a favourite over a combo draw, but if we wait until the turn we gain tons of equity if it is safe...I'd like to give a nice example but tbh can't think of one off the top of my head that makes sense :/
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I don't think Jagsti's concern was with this hand but with the general situation where we're up against a big draw and our equity isn't that good...he just chose a bad example to illustrate his point with.

This is obviously a clear shove, but what he's alluding to is a spot where we're not much of a favourite over a combo draw, but if we wait until the turn we gain tons of equity if it is safe...I'd like to give a nice example but tbh can't think of one off the top of my head that makes sense :/
It's only doable with a hand much, much weaker than a set, though, which almost always puts us at the risk of being behind already on the flop (which is rarely the case here).

A hand like QsQd on a 7h8h9h flop fits the mark, I think.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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That's a much better example. Our equity vs hands like AhTx is 62/38, and on a brick turn it's flipped to 60/40, and against those hands it makes sense to wait until the turn to commit more chips.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

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OK guys thanx for simplyfying the issue. I promise to post more relevant hands when I'm trying to encourage a debate about a certain line in future :D.
 
P

pkrook

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If u have...

position and he checks...push!!!! if u don't...push!!!!
 
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