50NL 3 way draw hand

widowmaker89

widowmaker89

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What you think?

full tilt poker Game #6697522073: Table Fuller (deep) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:59:38 ET - 2008/06/04
Seat 1: Used 2B Jail B8 ($85.65)
Seat 2: Yobgin ($27.75)
Seat 3: BoJacksonFan ($0), is sitting out
Seat 4: xBrAinStoRmx ($50.75)
Seat 5: luda561 ($89.15)
Seat 6: JayCe 24 ($71.15)
Seat 7: widowmaker89 ($49.25)
Seat 8: Ronjohn ($18.65)
Seat 9: K2comet ($37.35)
Ronjohn posts the small blind of $0.25
K2comet posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to widowmaker89 [Ac 4c]
Used 2B Jail B8 calls $0.50 (18/6/.75 75 hands)
BoJacksonFan adds $50
Yobgin folds
xBrAinStoRmx folds
luda561 calls $0.50
JayCe 24 folds
BoJacksonFan has returned
widowmaker89 has 15 seconds left to act
widowmaker89 calls $0.50
Ronjohn has 15 seconds left to act
Ronjohn calls $0.25 (24/8/infinite 25 hands)
K2comet checks
*** FLOP *** [8c 5d Kc]
Ronjohn bets $2.50
K2comet folds
Used 2B Jail B8 has 15 seconds left to act
Used 2B Jail B8 calls $2.50
luda561 calls $2.50
widowmaker89 has 15 seconds left to act
widowmaker89 calls $2.50
*** TURN *** [8c 5d Kc] [6h]
Ronjohn bets $15.65, and is all in
Used 2B Jail B8 folds
luda561 calls $15.65
widowmaker89 has 15 seconds left to act
widowmaker89 has requested TIME
widowmaker89...
 
Last edited:
SavagePenguin

SavagePenguin

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So there's about $40 in the pot and it'll cost you $15.65 to see the flop.
You're 1/5 to hit the nut flush on the river. Not good.

But if that heart hits the river, and you can get them to call your $30 shove, well that's about $100 you can win with the $15.65, which is +EV. But if only one calls that $30 shove, I don't think you have the odds.

If the third heart hits the river, someone might bail. But if you shove now, I think they'll both call. So either shove or fold.

I might be missing something. I'm a little groggy now.
 
widowmaker89

widowmaker89

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7 gives me a low ended straight and there is 43.30 in the pot, does that change any of your consideration?
 
Dwilius

Dwilius

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I think its a stretch to call this a 3way draw.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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i think by 3way he just meant that there's 3 people in the pot

this is a weird one. it's too late at night for me to do any precise math, but i'm pretty sure it's usually a fold. ron's shove was an overbet to begin with and you can't assume luda is going to stack off every time you hit your flush. your 7 will put four to a straight out there and probably scare him, and/or possibly not be good if he or the all-in player is holding a 9
 
SavagePenguin

SavagePenguin

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7 gives me a low ended straight and there is 43.30 in the pot, does that change any of your consideration?

A 7 is three more outs... at most (as the 7c was already counted). That's what, an extra 5%? 6% maybe? And that's if nobody has 7 or a 9.

So lets cut that in half and say the 7 gives you 3% more. That's not enough to change things significantly. Heck, I didn't add the rake into my calculations so let's just say that the rake cancels out the gut-shot, ignorant-end draw. :)
 
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