50l; top two in limped pot vs bet/3-bet

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Villain is ~11.5/10/2 throughout a few dozen hands and hasn't done anything noticable yet.

I'm tag again. A preflop raise is definitely an option as well, but I for whatever reason decided to limp instead.

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed)

UTG ($25.70)
UTG+1 ($87.05)
MP1 ($29.50)
MP2 ($54.35)
Hero ($50)
CO ($50)
Button ($95.20)
SB ($22.15)
BB ($78.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K
spade.gif
, J
diamond.gif
.
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2.50) J
spade.gif
, K
heart.gif
, 2
heart.gif
(5 players)
SB checks, BB bets $2, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $6.5, SB folds, BB raises to $21.5, Hero ...

Goes broke? Stacks happily? Folds?
 
jaketrevvor

jaketrevvor

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I'm tag again. A preflop raise is definitely an option as well, but I for whatever reason decided to limp instead.

I'm not so sure, I think from the hijack this would be a bit too frisky with KJo even with a TAG image - from the button (or possibly CO) it would be a different story.

As to your action, there is only one hand that is beating you on the flop that the BB would have checked pf, namely 22. A lot of hands that you beat that take this line seem fairly unlikely too - AK probably would have raised pf and KQ would usually not take such an aggressive line (but on such a drawy board this is still fairly possible) This restriction of hands makes it more likely that he's in here on QhTh or some other draw combo imo. On the flop you are around 50/50 with QhTh which is obv not going anywhere, so i think you best line is to flat call, if he bets at a scare card turn then get out (if he checks it check behind) and if a non-scare card comes then shove against his diminished odds. If he does happen to have 22 it's a cooler.
 
A

alan1983

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22 is the big concern here, i agree.

But i dont agree with your analysis regarding qhth. If he has it and played it this strong on flop, he isnt gonna check a blank turn card oop.

Thing is, so far K2 and J2 are possible hands too, being in the BB.

When a BB bets a pot, generally he can expect to be raised by top pairs in later position, since they generally expect to have better kickers.

SO maybe he has a weaker two pairs and has no clue how strong your hand is.

To me its deciding between the set and the weaker 2 pair. Tough spot. I go broke probably
 
jaketrevvor

jaketrevvor

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22 is the big concern here, i agree.

But i dont agree with your analysis regarding qhth. If he has it and played it this strong on flop, he isnt gonna check a blank turn card oop.

True, but you'll be ahead when the money goes in was my general point. I had overseen K2/J2, but I think the flat call line gets the most value from these hands too, as it makes it look more like we are drawing so on a non-scare card we are going to get pushed/shoved a lot by these - so I'm sure this situation reeks of gold for us (apart from that pesky 22 he might have :)). Most of the time we're hitting big, not going broke in this spot.
 
Four Dogs

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Ugh! 22 is a perfect fit, but does it bet out here? Maybe. I might. Check raises are way over used and can spoil a good hand. You're pretty thin on outs if you're behind. He's not a CS. I can't see him limping with AK, maybe KQ. I think your toast. Fold.
 
NineLions

NineLions

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Hmmm, what about AhJh/QhJh. For me AQ is the marginal hand for raising from the blinds, but then I'm playing weak limp/callish tables.

Don't go broke in an unraised pot?

I agree 22 is possible, but so is another KJ which would also make sense given the betting line.

Maybe 22 leading out on the flop is slightly more likely than not because of the K and J, hoping someone caught one of those, but even so 22 in the BB could expect someone to take a stab/have caught something.
 
B

bw07507

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I probably fold this hand preflop, but I have been playing on the tighter side lately. I wouldn't mind a raise, but I dont think limping is very good here.

Villain didnt limp as some people are suggesting, hes in the BB which makes his range much larger. He could be doing this with K2, J2, AhJh, QhJh. Against someone who is less of a nit I will go broke here every time, however I still think that I would go broke against him.
 
J

jeffred1111

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Ugh! 22 is a perfect fit, but does it bet out here? Maybe. I might. Check raises are way over used and can spoil a good hand. You're pretty thin on outs if you're behind. He's not a CS. I can't see him limping with AK, maybe KQ. I think your toast. Fold.
Folding this is burning money. 22 isn't the only hand that will reraise here, I can see JQh, Axh, Kx, J2, QT, K2, KJ, etc. Altough his range has become more polarized towards 22, we can include a lot of worse holdings. Your raise looks like a steal to him as much as his reraise looks pretty weak to us.

Also, fold or raise preflop. KJo is probably the worse "good" hand in the entire deck to limp with.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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I really don't see a player this tight bet-3-betting QT, Kx, Axh or even QJh/AJh here (though much more probable with the QJh/AJh imo).

Again this is my opinion, but I don't think we see worse than a combo draw here.
 
J

jeffred1111

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I really don't see a player this tight bet-3-betting QT, Kx, Axh or even QJh/AJh here (though much more probable with the QJh/AJh imo).

Again this is my opinion, but I don't think we see worse than a combo draw here.

+
Villain is ~11.5/10/2 throughout a few dozen hands and hasn't done anything noticable yet.

= does not compute. We have to be putting villain on exactly 22 for this hand to make any sense and with us being behind. This needs a read. You do not have one if you say villain hasn't done anything noticeable.

Against (KK,JJ,22,AhQh,AhJh,KJs,K2s,KJo,K2o,J2o) wich contains hands that would have reraised preflop (namely KK,JJ), we are still around 61% to win this hand. If you substract them, we are 65% to win the hand (and I think that's reasonable). We have to remove all the smallish draws, one pairs + draw and J2 from there to become an underdog and then villains' range becomes only AhQh,22,KJo. This is way too tiny from the BB.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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AQh is raising pf most of the time, though it's still possible as a check. I'm not sure he plays the gutshot + FD this fast but I think it's possible.

Otherwise the only hands that really fit the line are KJ, AQh and 22. J2 and K2 could definitely be possible too as I've only raised the flop bet so far, and he could repop thinking I'm on KQ or even a combo draw myself. I'm still a little confused with this one but I think the wildcard factor should include Jxh and maybe even naked FDs for semibluffs.

Hope I'm not posting results too soon here, but I got the rest of my stack in, breathed a huge sigh of relief when he kind of tanked, and eventually showed QTh that didn't improve.
 
J

jeffred1111

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Otherwise the only hands that really fit the line are KJ, AQh and 22. J2 and K2 could definitely be possible too as I've only raised the flop bet so far, and he could repop thinking I'm on KQ or even a combo draw myself. I'm still a little confused with this one but I think the wildcard factor should include Jxh and maybe even naked FDs for semibluffs.

Now you're thinking above the first and second levels into the third level: this is a spot where you can worry about image and how your raise is perceived since villain plays tight and agressive = has read some books and is probably more observant than the average customer. This means that he can very well put you on a weak K, a strong jack + draw or a complete air trying to bully him out of the pot.

Him calling your shove with QhTh is okay. you were on the good side of flipping and the added limped money probably made it worthwhile for him. This is a situation where both of you played well and where making a mistake is thus not that costly (he was a very slight underdog to almost any great hand barring 22) since EV approaches zero.
 
jaketrevvor

jaketrevvor

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This restriction of hands makes it more likely that he's in here on QhTh or some other draw combo imo.

Go me :)

Great result but I still like the flat call line better. It's definately +er EV -- getting your money in with very good odds of holding or being able to get away from it if a danger card comes off. In the long run I think it makes a considerable difference in this situation.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Good point, but we also see a lot of cards that kill our action when we're ahead. For example if he's got J2, then a king will shut him right down. Same goes for a heart, ace or ten for example.
 
jaketrevvor

jaketrevvor

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Okay, let's say that he could have had QhTh or J2 (with equal probability) and work out the EV of call flop vs shove.

Right, lets say vil has J2 first - you flat-call the flop and for purely theoretical argument say that he won't put any more money in if a K (2) or heart (8 (excluding Jh which he isn't holding :))) or A (3) comes on the turn, but will shove any other card (<EV>):

<J2, turn> = 13/44*31.50 + 31/44*59.50 + 2/44*-43
<J2, turn> = 9.31 + 41.92 - 1.95
<J2, turn> = $49.28

<J2, shove flop> = 2/45*-43 + 2/44*-43 + 59.50
<J2, shove flop> = 59.50 - 1.91 - 1.95
<J2, shove flop> = $55.64

Phew... That is very possibly littered with mistakes (one of which is the fact that we have redraws to 2 kings if the 2 hits on the turn, oops) but from here it looks about right -- the general gist is that there is not a huge amount of difference in EV we're getting from J2 from a shove on the flop vs a flat-call, and the amount of difference from QhTh in the two lines is definately going to be considerably more (although I can't be bothered to figure it out now, maybe later :eek:).

Anyhoo, in this very theoretical situation we flat-call the flop ftw Chuck -- yay! (J2 is equivalent to K2 obv, but 22 is not included in this range as done above etc.)
 
V

viking999

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I gonna be honest, I skipped most of the later posts, because they're so damn detailed.

But...

Regarding the line of just calling the flop versus the big draw, I have some personal experience in a similar (but not identical) situation.

I had JhTh, open raised in late position, and got called by only the BB.

Flop: JsTs2c.

He bet, I raised, he 3-bet. We were both very deep, so this wasn't at all committing. I just called, figuring either the 22 cooler or the big combo draw. Either way, the right move is to shut down on a scare turn (although there's some uncertainty as to whether a K or a Q kills me or not).

Turn: 5s.

Check, check.

River: 2d.

Check, check.

He had AsKs and was totally slowplaying me.

I got into some heated debates about whether this was the right move. Whether it was or not, I think that was a more appropriate spot to just call than the hand in this thread.

The main reason is that the villain saw a free flop, so he could have ANY two pair. In my example, there was no hand that he had where, given perfect information, it was correct to shove the flop. I was either way behind or I would have been giving up an opportunity to induce a bad call on the turn if he missed his draw. In your hand, he could easily have a weaker two pair, in which case you're only allowing him the chance of an easy out by just calling. If a scare card comes, you're both going to shut down, and you'll win a much smaller pot. He might be willing to put his whole stack in on this flop with only 2 outs.

Regarding the villain stats, after only a few dozen hands, I'm not putting a whole lot of credibility in those numbers.

So in short, I shove all-in, and either get sucked out on by QhTh or hit my 4 outer against 22. That's how I roll.

Update: JT, I think you're underestimating how significant a $6 improvement is in a $50 game. That's more than 10% ROI better.
 
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jaketrevvor

jaketrevvor

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Update: JT, I think you're underestimating how significant a $6 improvement is in a $50 game. That's more than 10% ROI better.

Indeed it is, but I think as comparable to the difference in EV of QhTh it isn't as large as all that :) I guess I probs should work out the EV for QhTh.... grrr this takes ages :joyman:

Hold on..........
 
V

viking999

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Another consideration is there's only 1 permutation of QhTh, there are 3 permutations of 22, but there are 12 permutations of lesser two pairs. So from a purely statistical standpoint, it's a lot more likely that he has a weaker two pair.
 
jaketrevvor

jaketrevvor

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RIGHT - here's the QhTh:

In all likelyhood he will push the turn no matter what given his aggression on the flop, so we'll make this assumption. Also, let's specify that the danger cards we fold to are any heart (8 (no fold to Jh)) and any ace (3) and any 9 (3 (the trouble is it's very difficult to say if we call or fold to a 9 or 2, but if we call a 9 I have to worrry about calculating more annoying redraws :), and I can see a fold to a 9 anyway as we aren't beating anything anymore (apart from J2/K2 but thats another story :eek:))) -- turn (<EV>):

<QhTh, flat-call flop> = 14/45*-15 + 31/45*30/44*58.50
<QhTh, flat-call flop> = 24.48 - 4.67
<QhTh, flat-call flop> = $19.81 v.v.goot

<QhTh, shove flop> = 15/45*-43*40/44 + 15/44*-43 + 30/45*29/44*58.50
<QhTh, shove flop> = 25.70 - 14.66 - 13.03
<QhTh, shove flop> = $-1.99

WOW - that is a truly massive difference, of course there is a large possibility that some of the working is wrong given that looking back on the J2 one there's a ridicularse amount of errors. I'm about to go and redo the J2 one lol

EDIT:
Another consideration is there's only 1 permutation of QhTh, there are 3 permutations of 22, but there are 12 permutations of lesser two pairs. So from a purely statistical standpoint, it's a lot more likely that he has a weaker two pair.

Yeah I thought about that but decided that since QhTh takes this v. aggro line a lot more often especially with such a tight player I could handily forget about it...:)
 
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jaketrevvor

jaketrevvor

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Okeydokey - J2 redone (which does assume we go broke if a 2 is turned to be fair/in-keeping with the QhTh assumption):

<J2, flat-call flop> = 13/45*30.50 + 32/45*58.50 + (2/45)*(41/44)-43
<J2, flat-call flop> = 8.81 + 41.60 - 1.78
<J2, flat-call flop> = $48.63

<J2, shove flop> = 2/45*-43 + 2/44*-43 + (43/45)*(42/44)*58.50
<J2, shove flop> = 53.36 - 1.91 - 1.95
<J2, shove flop> = $49.50

Much, much, much, much closer than previously calculated. Even if this and K2 are 12x more likely hands than QhTh you gain more than 25x the amount in QhTh option by flat-calling than you lose by flat-calling the J2 so the flat-call is correct. Yippee!

Now for that pesky 22...:eek:
 
V

viking999

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<QhTh, flat-call flop> = 14/45*-15 + 31/45*30/44*58.50
<QhTh, flat-call flop> = 24.48 - 4.67
<QhTh, flat-call flop> = $19.81 v.v.goot

The math on the first part is missing the case where he doesn't hit it on the turn, but he hits it on the river. The tipoff is that the probabilities don't add up to 1. It should be like this:

<QhTh, flat-call flop> = 31/45*30/44*58.50 - 14/45*15 - 31/45*14/44*43
<QhTh, flat-call flop> = 24.48 -9.43 - 4.67
<QhTh, flat-call flop> = $10.38

----------

<QhTh, shove flop> = 15/45*-43*40/44 + 15/44*-43 + 30/45*29/44*58.50
<QhTh, shove flop> = 25.70 - 14.66 - 13.03
<QhTh, shove flop> = $-1.99

This one's not quite right, either. Did you forget it's 14 outs, not 15? I suppose the 40/44 is to account for the chance of filling up on the river, but you're forgetting the chance of filling up on the turn, and you're only subtracting the full house from the negative, you're not adding it to the positive. I'm going to ignore the full house, because it's a PITA to calculate right, and we ignored it in the flat call case anyway.

<QhTh, shove flop> = 31/45*30/44*58.50 - 14/45*43 - 31/45*14/44*43
<QhTh, shove flop> = 27.48 - 13.38 - 9.43
<QhTh, shove flop> = $4.67

So in other words, it's a lot closer. Plus, this is assuming that if we flat call the flop we fold 100% of the time if a non-heart A or a 9 comes on the turn, which is probably a bad assumption.
 
V

viking999

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Okeydokey - J2 redone (which does assume we go broke if a 2 is turned to be fair/in-keeping with the QhTh assumption):

<J2, flat-call flop> = 13/45*30.50 + 32/45*58.50 + (2/45)*(41/44)-43
<J2, flat-call flop> = 8.81 + 41.60 - 1.78
<J2, flat-call flop> = $48.63

<J2, shove flop> = 2/45*-43 + 2/44*-43 + (43/45)*(42/44)*58.50
<J2, shove flop> = 53.36 - 1.91 - 1.95
<J2, shove flop> = $49.50

Again, the probabilities aren't adding up to 1. But more important than that, what does the 13/45*30.50 represent? Are those cases where he folds the turn, and if so what are the 13 cards (flush, king, and...)?

Edit: Nevermind, I got it.
 
jaketrevvor

jaketrevvor

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<QhTh, flat-call flop> = 14/45*-15 + 31/45*30/44*58.50
<QhTh, flat-call flop> = 24.48 - 4.67
<QhTh, flat-call flop> = $19.81 v.v.goot

The math on the first part is missing the case where he doesn't hit it on the turn, but he hits it on the river.

Nope, that is accounted for by the 30/44, ie the probability that the hand holds up on the river.
----------

<QhTh, shove flop> = 15/45*-43*40/44*41/45 + 15/44*-43 + 30/45*29/44*58.50


This one's not quite right, either. Did you forget it's 14 outs, not 15?

It's fifteen outs: 9 flush cards + 6 straight cards = 15

I suppose the 40/44 is to account for the chance of filling up on the river,

Yep

but you're forgetting the chance of filling up on the turn

Fair point; equation edited

So in other words, it's a lot closer. Plus, this is assuming that if we flat call the flop we fold 100% of the time if a non-heart A or a 9 comes on the turn, which is probably a bad assumption.

I disagree, as at that point villain probably wouldn't push with K2/J2 (which is looking fairly unlikely anyway due to his tightness) and there are no other hands in his range that we beat.

Above ^^

Oh, and the reason the probabilities don't add up to one is because I'm grouping many different streets into one equation for ease, so this issue is innocuous.
 
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viking999

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Nope, that is accounted for by the 30/44, ie the probability that the hand holds up on the river.

No, it isn't. It's half accounted for by that. Not only do you fail to win if he hits it on the river, but you lose as well. There needs to be a minus term.

Oh, and the reason the probabilities don't add up to one is because I'm grouping many different streets into one equation for ease, so this issue is innocuous.

In an EV formula, you need to cover every case. The probability of the sum of every case (the entire universe of possibilities) is the same as the sum of the probabilities of each case, which is 1. Basically, EV is the value of a decision based on every possible outcome of that decision, and the probability of every possible outcome is always 1.
 
jaketrevvor

jaketrevvor

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No, it isn't. It's half accounted for by that. Not only do you fail to win if he hits it on the river, but you lose as well. There needs to be a minus term.



In an EV formula, you need to cover every case. The probability of the sum of every case (the entire universe of possibilities) is the same as the sum of the probabilities of each case, which is 1. Basically, EV is the value of a decision based on every possible outcome of that decision, and the probability of every possible outcome is always 1.

shhh

tired drunk monday night, shall revisit this in the morning and cringe at all my bold, outrageous and completely fictitious claims. Plz don't think I'm a retard :)
 
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