$500 NL HE Full Ring: Nasty run out vs tilted reg-fish, do we have to raise flop here?

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c0rnBr34d

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V is middle aged out of town player who sounds like he plays regularly but appears to be on tilt or just very bad. He's on his 4th $1,000 buy in. Most recent fish example hand before this hand the V limp called about $30 pre flop out of position with K5o. Donk led $100 on a QT9r flop into about $120, barreled $200 on a K turn card and got raised to $500 by the PFR who had been crushing him all night. Talks himself into jamming his remaining $700 or so against the nuts. They weren't all this bad but if he makes a top pair you can get tons of value. This also shows that he bets his draws and marginal hands to steal.

Hero is also middle aged local reg, has been playing a bit nitty, especially pre. Hero covers.

Hero opens UTG with AsKc to $20. V calls ($925 ish effective) directly on Hero's left, 4 more calls pile on. Wheeee.

Flop ($120) : Ah Qh 6c
Hero decides to x. I'm betting here very often but these multi-way pots can spiral out of control quickly and we have the worst position so the option of x/r or pot control also don't seem bad. V does not disappoint and bets $100. Folds back to Hero which is probably the best scenario. V has a very small 3B range so he does have some AQ, A6 (see the K5 hand), and 66 but I'm loving our chances here. Thinking about the K5 hand specifically Hero decides that if V barrels $200 we can comfortably jam turn and V may pay us off with top pair or a heart draw but it may be better to just raise now and jam clean turns. My concern with raising flop is he will probably just fold his gut shots, Qx, and 6x hands but he will barrel them if we call. Thoughts?

Turn($320): Ah Qh 6c Qd
Other than a heart this is probably the worst turn we could hope for. Hero x. V barrels for $100 again. V has not been nuanced at all with bet sizing so I'm not sure how to read this small 1/3 pot bet. The board pairing Qs and his small bet ruin my x/r plan. Hero calls.

River($520): Ah Qh 6c Qd Kh
The hearts come in. Yay. Hero x. V quickly pushes out another $100 stack. Now the bet is so small I feel like we have to call with top two. If he has a Q or the flush or somehow the straight, nice hand. But given hands like the K5 hand, he'll also show up with Ax and think he's chopping or good most of the time given our passive trapping line. Hero calls. Thoughts?
 
loafaBREAD

loafaBREAD

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Hey man,

Flop: I love the flop check and actually would recommend checking range here against normal opponents (4 way oop). Once we see that V is the only one to continue, I don't mind a XR here, but a turn xr could also work. Nothing wrong with the XCall

Turn: V bets 1/3... Why do we believe this guy when we says hes a reg? haha. sounds like a whale.

I would take his bet size literally- I think this is a flush draw or a mediocre ace. Both call if you raise, and you can definitely reevaluate versus a turn 3-bet. I'd raise to $400 and play for stacks on brick rivers.

River- I think our V is a fish and we should have XR one of the earlier streets but here....I think when you call you are good often enough. A min click back might be a little too thin given the runout.


Overall- I think you are giving this guy WAYYY too much respect. This guy is not exploiting you, or outplaying you in any way. Dude is not 1/3ing turn with trips, especially when you should have way more trips in your xcing range. F think guy, go for thin value vs his AT or whatever.
 
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c0rnBr34d

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Hey man,

Flop: I love the flop check and actually would recommend checking range here against normal opponents (4 way oop). Once we see that V is the only one to continue, I don't mind a XR here, but a turn xr could also work. Nothing wrong with the XCall

Turn: V bets 1/3... Why do we believe this guy when we says hes a reg? haha. sounds like a whale.

I would take his bet size literally- I think this is a flush draw or a mediocre ace. Both call if you raise, and you can definitely reevaluate versus a turn 3-bet. I'd raise to $400 and play for stacks on brick rivers.

River- I think our V is a fish and we should have XR one of the earlier streets but here....I think when you call you are good often enough. A min click back might be a little too thin given the runout.


Overall- I think you are giving this guy WAYYY too much respect. This guy is not exploiting you, or outplaying you in any way. Dude is not 1/3ing turn with trips, especially when you should have way more trips in your xcing range. F think guy, go for thin value vs his AT or whatever.
Yea, the turn may have been a bit MUBSy LOL. V was pretty much the only reason I was still at the table and I had a nice W already locked up. I've been playing a lot of 1/2 lately too as I keep spending my roll on vacations and starting over so I may have been over protecting my stack as I'm not as used to 2/5 as I was pre pandemic and am still building a roll.

I actually think V has more Qx than Hero on the turn though. Given he's calling raises OOP with K5o he has lots of Qx that Hero will not open UTG with. V cannot have QQ though so I think our Qs are stronger than his but less plentiful if that makes sense. With the risk reward profile for this guy though I tend to agree that I probably gave him too much credit and could have x/r turn anyways. If he calls and the river plays out do we x/f to a jam?

Just saw the last episode of your VLOG. SWEET man! I was a big SC and SC2 fan so the edits are fire to me LOL. Will catch the other episodes soon. Great to see you still playing. Told you it was easier live :)
 
John A

John A

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Qx is a good card for you. Not sure why you think it's bad. Any ways, as played, I don't mind pot controlling this hand if you don't think you have a good enough read live. River is a std call.
 
C

c0rnBr34d

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Qx is a good card for you. Not sure why you think it's bad. Any ways, as played, I don't mind pot controlling this hand if you don't think you have a good enough read live. River is a std call.
Thanks, I'm back and forth on the turn action the more I think about it. I feel like it makes it more difficult for me to extract value from Ax hands so if he folds most of his Ax to the turn x/r and continues with Qx and flush draws is that really the most +EV line? Maybe he was just in call down mode and would still defend his Ax but in the moment it seemed like the turn x/r with my image would appear very strong and limit his continuing range more than we might want.
 
loafaBREAD

loafaBREAD

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Yea, the turn may have been a bit MUBSy LOL. V was pretty much the only reason I was still at the table and I had a nice W already locked up. I've been playing a lot of 1/2 lately too as I keep spending my roll on vacations and starting over so I may have been over protecting my stack as I'm not as used to 2/5 as I was pre pandemic and am still building a roll.

I actually think V has more Qx than Hero on the turn though. Given he's calling raises OOP with K5o he has lots of Qx that Hero will not open UTG with. V cannot have QQ though so I think our Qs are stronger than his but less plentiful if that makes sense. With the risk reward profile for this guy though I tend to agree that I probably gave him too much credit and could have x/r turn anyways. If he calls and the river plays out do we x/f to a jam?

Just saw the last episode of your VLOG. SWEET man! I was a big SC and SC2 fan so the edits are fire to me LOL. Will catch the other episodes soon. Great to see you still playing. Told you it was easier live :)
Haha thanks man! SC is the GOAT, no doubt

Yea, you did... glad to see you still playing too!
 
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