$50 Open-ended straight flush draw/with straight already, what is our move?

[hott_estelle]

pokerstars Game #9639007626: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/04/27 - 19:59:25 (ET)
Table 'Rosselia' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: hott_estelle ($81.45 in chips)
Seat 2: vbedia ($50.30 in chips)
Seat 3: kreley ($16.60 in chips)
Seat 4: Snamuh ($56.85 in chips)
Seat 5: tenbob ($85.15 in chips)
Seat 8: AndreaGianni ($32.15 in chips)
Seat 9: DeaDinaDitch ($48.45 in chips)
vbedia: posts small blind $0.25
kreley: posts big blind $0.50
blackmore: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hott_estelle [5h 5d]
Snamuh: folds
tenbob: folds
AndreaGianni: raises $1 to $1.50
DeaDinaDitch: calls $1.50
hott_estelle: calls $1.50
vbedia: folds
kreley: calls $1
*** FLOP *** [3h 2h 4h]
kreley: checks
AndreaGianni: checks
DeaDinaDitch: checks
hott_estelle: bets $2.50
Snamuh is sitting out
Snamuh leaves the table
kreley: folds
AndreaGianni: calls $2.50
DeaDinaDitch: folds
*** TURN *** [3h 2h 4h] [As]
4splats joins the table at seat #4
AndreaGianni: checks
hott_estelle: ??


So what is our move here? Do we bet out if so how much? Try to reel him in, or bet enough to protect against high flush draw? Or do we fear flush here and just check? Are we losing value by checking here? What is the move? Check, small raise, sizable raise, pot raise, all-on??

 

[ChuckTs]

I lead with a 2/3-pot bet or bigger. You'll get any action from an ace (especially the [Ah]), and you protect your hand which is most probably best at this point.

 

[joeeagles]

I agree with 2/3 pot bet or bigger and if he folds so be it.

 

[Bombjack]

If he's on a flush draw, he thinks he's about 20% to hit, so can call up to a 25% pot with his pot-odds. So you need to bet at least this amount. In reality he'll probably call up to maybe 60% pot to chase. His odds aren't as much as 20% to hit since two of the heart outs [ah] and [6h] will give you the straight flush.

You're indifferent to him calling or folding for a 25% pot bet. If he calls a bigger than 25% pot bet, that's Sklansky $$$ to you. If you check and he gets a free card, that's -ve Sklansky $$$.

 

[hott_estelle]

If he's on a flush draw, he thinks he's about 20% to hit, so can call up to a 25% pot with his pot-odds. So you need to bet at least this amount. In reality he'll probably call up to maybe 60% pot to chase. His odds aren't as much as 20% to hit since two of the heart outs A♥ and 6♥ will give you the straight flush.

You're indifferent to him calling or folding for a 25% pot bet. If he calls a bigger than 25% pot bet, that's Sklansky $$$ to you. If you check and he gets a free card, that's -ve Sklansky $$$.

So you're saying bet out about 25% of the pot BJ?

 

[hott_estelle]

PokerStars Game #9639007626: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/04/27 - 19:59:25 (ET)
Table 'Rosselia' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: hott_estelle ($81.45 in chips)
Seat 2: vbedia ($50.30 in chips)
Seat 3: kreley ($16.60 in chips)
Seat 4: Snamuh ($56.85 in chips)
Seat 5: tenbob ($85.15 in chips)
Seat 8: AndreaGianni ($32.15 in chips)
Seat 9: DeaDinaDitch ($48.45 in chips)
vbedia: posts small blind $0.25
kreley: posts big blind $0.50
blackmore: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hott_estelle [5h 5d]
Snamuh: folds
tenbob: folds
AndreaGianni: raises $1 to $1.50
DeaDinaDitch: calls $1.50
hott_estelle: calls $1.50
vbedia: folds
kreley: calls $1
*** FLOP *** [3h 2h 4h]
kreley: checks
AndreaGianni: checks
DeaDinaDitch: checks
hott_estelle: bets $2.50
Snamuh is sitting out
Snamuh leaves the table
kreley: folds
AndreaGianni: calls $2.50
DeaDinaDitch: folds
*** TURN *** [3h 2h 4h] [As]
4splats joins the table at seat #4
AndreaGianni: checks
hott_estelle: bets $5.50
AndreaGianni: calls $5.50
*** RIVER *** [3h 2h 4h As] [Qh]
AndreaGianni: bets $15
hott_estelle said, "such a sick card, wish u reraised the turn"
hott_estelle said, "no way i can call"
hott_estelle: folds
AndreaGianni collected $21.20 from pot
AndreaGianni: doesn't show hand
hott_estelle said, "one heart"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $22.25 | Rake $1.05
Board [3h 2h 4h As Qh]
Seat 1: hott_estelle (button) folded on the River
Seat 2: vbedia (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: kreley (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: Snamuh folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: tenbob folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: AndreaGianni collected ($21.20)
Seat 9: DeaDinaDitch folded on the Flop


OK, I'll state my reasoning behind my play, I'm guessing I'll get posts of either agreeing with it or completely scolding and punishing me for my play on here.

At the time, on the turn there, I thought I had a feeling for what type of hand the villain had. I was guessing around AJ one heart, KQ one heart, or even suited type of hand there. Now, my rationale on the turn there is, on the range I put the villain on, he's calling any bet I make on the turn there barring an absolute all-in push--which he still might call. Anyways, I had put him on at least a high flush draw here.

He was a bit of an agressive player, so trying to be a bit too cute, I had planned on making a small 25% of the pot bet here--that would scream to get reraised. I was trying to make myself look really weak here, to get a reraise, in order to push over the top. I was pretty sure I had the best hand at the turn here, and I just wanted to get the most possible value out of the hand. I might have tried to get a bit too creative here, made a play, that obv didn't work because he didn't come over the top of me, killing my chances at reraising him big.

River card, absolutely horrible for me. He bets out big. On the range of hands he has here, most likely he has me beat. I fold.

I really thought my thought process behind this play on the turn was decent enough, but I might have overthought this whole play. Anyways, feedback, was it a horrible play, am I wrong in defending my play? Or was it OK? Or was it absolutely brilliant (obv. don't pick this one). Or did I completely go overboard on playing the guy, and not the cards, ect?

I do know what he had--or what he claims to have had, he told me afterwards when I asked him nicely, but who knows if he told me the truth but I'm guessing he did--but I won't be posting it right now. After a few responses, I'll post what he had for those that are curious, but what he had isn't the point at the moment. The question I'm asking has nothing to do with the results. Just basically, did I play the turn at all correctly, or how else would you have played it and why.

 

[Bombjack]

So you're saying bet out about 25% of the pot BJ?

If you can pin him on a flush draw, you have to bet AT LEAST 25% of the pot or you're losing money. You should bet whatever you think he will call above 25% pot. If the heart comes on the river, you have to fold, but you'll win with this play in the long run. So I think you played it fine betting half pot, although personally I'd bet a little bit bigger.

 

[hott_estelle]

If you can pin him on a flush draw, you have to bet AT LEAST 25% of the pot or you're losing money. You should bet whatever you think he will call above 25% pot. If the heart comes on the river, you have to fold, but you'll win with this play in the long run. So I think you played it fine betting half pot, although personally I'd bet a little bit bigger.

Like I said, I was so planning on reraising when he raised. OK, maybe got a little over-confident here, thought I had a read on him--him being agressive when chance to take down pots--I thought he'd reraise me for sure, and then I'd move in and take the pot, or get a nice pot if I didn't get unlucky on the river. Without being results-oriented, I think I would have liked my chances if all the money was in the middle on the turn there.

However, like I said, he didn't reraise me, so the play never developed like it should have.

 

[alan1983]

Did he have the flush made on the flop?

I find it weird that he wouldnt c-bet flop or turn if he did have the ace of hearts...

 

[joeeagles]

You played this fine, the half pot bet on the turn is good enough he's getting 3 to 1 which are not good odds for him if he was indeed chasing a flush. Also I think it was a good fold there on the river. Sometimes that is a bluff, but not enough times to make a call profitable.

Maybe you could have bet more on the turn and I understand what your plan was, but still what you bet was enough to make draws unprofitable in the long run, so don't blame yourself. The idea of taking the pot down with a heavy turn bet is a good one, but making him put more money in it against the right odds is far better. The latter will make your BR grow faster.

 

[ChuckTs]

@bombjack:

You're not taking implied odds into account at all. He will probably call up to a pot bet with the Ah.

I reeeally didn't like that tiny turn bet. :/

 

[NineLions]

I reeeally didn't like that tiny turn bet. :/

In spite of Estelle's re-raise plan? You prefer betting out, or check raise, or do you think she telegraphed her plan with the small bet?

 

[ChuckTs]

Well we can't even be sure he's going to reraise. I prefer just playing it safe and betting an amount that will make any call from him 'incorrect'. What I really don't want to see is exactly what happened; small bet gets called and we're faced with a river bet we can't call.

 

[Bombjack]

Very unlikely he has the [ah] unless he also has another heart - even this is unlikely because in either case he c-bets this flop.

 

[alan1983]

Bombjack, would a call here be too out of the question?

 

[Bombjack]

Bombjack, would a call here be too out of the question?

You shouldn't call since you'd be giving the implied odds that your opponent needs to chase. You just have to give it up. Very occasionally it's a bluff, but 90% of the time you're beat here, so you just can't call profitably. The likelihood of a bluff is made greater by the fact that from the bettor's point of view you could have been betting a made flush already.

 

[hott_estelle]

Very unlikely he has the A♥ unless he also has another heart - even this is unlikely because in either case he c-bets this flop.

A of hearts C-bets the flop? Even with 2 other players behind him left to act?

 

[ChuckTs]

I would think so. Wouldn't you with AhQx or AhKx? I'd be pretty much ready to get my whole stack in with two overs + the nut flush draw.

 

[Bombjack]

Mmm yep, so if he wasn't so pot-committed you could shove this river.

 

[hott_estelle]

He was pot-committed after that river bet.

 

[alexanderwoo1]

Yes he was pot commited I would have folded on the river as well. Probably had a higher flush draw on the flop.

 

[RickH2005]

What To Do?!

K.I.S.S.---PUSH ALL IN!!!!! Whddya got to loose????? And Whaddya got to WIN???????

 

[zachvac]

lol you realize this is a year old right? And that logic is absolutely horrible btw. Why don't you go play craps with that attitude?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

well this was the dumbest ancient thread bump i've seen in a while.