$50 NLHE Full Ring: Semi bluffing all in with top pair on the turn ?

[Hujiko]

PokerStars - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4[/url]

MP+1: 103.3 BB
CO: 111.04 BB
BTN: 95.5 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 24 BB
Hero (UTG): 109.76 BB
UTG+1: 103.36 BB (VPIP: 27.16, PFR: 11.73, 3Bet Preflop: 5.71, hands: 165)
MP: 157.88 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♦ K♠

Hero raises to 2.42 BB, UTG+1 raises to 7.32 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 4.9 BB

I have a high fold % against 3 bets so I have to work on it (I am getting more and more 3 bets lately and seeing the number of hands I have on him he might take advantage off that against me). So I took a chance with my KQo against another LAG.

Flop: (16.14 BB, 2 players) Q♠ J♥ 4♦
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets 7.68 BB, Hero calls 7.68 BB

Flopped top pair so check calling.

Turn: (31.5 BB, 2 players) 6♣
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets 21 BB,

Interesting what can he have AA, AK, KK or just air as he is capable of 3 barreling (his c-bet stats are 50-50-50, although only 165 hands so only flop c-bet stat is trustworthy) but still hes a LAG. So I decide to make a strong play on him and check raise all in trying to get him to fold AQ (8 combos), KK (3 combos) and possibly AA (6 combos) if he has QQ (1 combo) or JJ (3 combos) I am dead. My thought at the moment where that if he has a set he will move all in on the river anyway and I will call it off so I better make this move and try to get some fold equity on better hands then mine and also deny AK the equity that it has to river an A (only 6% lol as a K is no good for him).

Does the check raise make sense?

Hero raises to 94.76 BB and is all-in

 

[TenJack]

Preflop, idk about online but I always make it at least 3x pre from oop.
Y are we check calling the flop? Get value from his AK, AJ hands. Most of his ace hands have a Broadway draw, a lot of his non-ace hands have at least an oesd. I really don't think check calling this is smart.

The turn is a complete blank that really does nothing for either players range, Unless he has JJ or AQ you are good.

The check raise here is really bad imo. Let AK keep barreling at you. He has four outs. Aces or Kings aren't really going to fold, You never have JQ as played, only things that beat them are sets, and a thinking player would realize that a set would keep check calling. So basically, only hands that have you beat are calling, and only hands that you beat are folding. That is the opposite of what we want. As played until the turn i check call again and then evaluate on the river.

 

[Misaki]

I will add that if you want to defend more to 3bet on this position than you should choose another combinations of hand. Even if he is a lag (in my opinion you can't say that after 165hands. Even his pfr is such a small number now) KQo will be always a problematic hand here and probably unprofitable to play on these positions. So from UTG you probably should defend something like 99+, AJs+, AKo. You can also add KQs but still I think if you have problems with 3bet pots I think you could defend even tighter. Ranges here are very tight. So KQo is just a fold preflop. Always!!! Unless you have a guy who 3bets any2.

I agree with TenJack. Make bigger open from UTG. It's just too small. You should go to 2.8x-3x here for sure. I don't play full ring, but maybe KQo could be a fold here. Hand looks nice, two big broadways, but I guess the most guys who open it from UTG don't earn money with that hand. If you use some kind of tracker just check if it's profitable for you.

As played you have to call once. On the turn check/raise doesn't make any sense. You would get call only from better hands. Problem on the turn is that there is not many draws. Only AK maybe, but we can't say he will barrel it. You should always consider a range with player could do some actions. Unfortunately his range here is very strong. He represents here JJ+,AQs+,AKo. You have here 39% vs this range. So you have the odds call, but still I'm not sure if he will barrel his AK here. So probably I would just fold turn, because I can't imagine we will be good on river. And still we block his AK.

 

[Hujiko]

I think UTG raise is a pretty normal sizing for a LAG player online in 50NL game I get many folds.

Preflop I think he can have AA, AK, AQ, KK, QQ, JJ? and some bluff hands such as Axs or even a middling suited connectors 78s, 89s, 9Ts.

I agree that calling the 3-bet with a KQo is not good. That got me in this difficult spot.

On the flop donk betting might be better but I like to keep his bluffs in the hand. And yes he bluffs on flops as his c-betting range is 50+%.

On the turn I think that most of his total air hands will no longer c bet and only hands that are either strong or have some equity made the raise. So my range for him is AK, AA, KK, AQ, QQ and JJ some draws like T9s and hands I clearly beat that bluffed. He probably will bet KK, AK and T9 only some percentage of the time as I can only call with better hands and perhaps AQ which is beaten by KK.

Still I decide to check raise and deny any equity he still has with KK (2 outs), AK (7outs), T9 (8 outs), AA (2 outs) against my best possible holding (QQ or JJ). Now the decision is on him if he does not have QQ (which I block) or JJ (will call) if he wants to hero call me as I represent QQ or JJ. I still like my creative check raise but I don't know if the numbers are correct. Be aware that players don't tend to be as sticky in 50NL as they are on lower limits.

 

[Misaki]

in my opinion you are too much focused on villain stats which can't be exact numbers because it's only 165 hands. After that numbers of hands you can be a nit playing 14/11 on 6max even when you are the regular with 25/21 numbers or be a lag 30/27 when you are a tight guy 19/16. You can cbet 100% after 150 hands when you cbet normally 50%. Those numbers mean nothing on such a small sample. I understand that on higher limits than micro limits people used to play wider ranges but still I think you can't add every possible combination to his range because you can be wrong like for example adding T9s. You have no idea if he has it in range or not. In my opinion you can't explain your every decision by adding possible combinations in vacuum. It will make most of your postflop decisions -EV. It's better to make more tight folds than involve yourself in hard spots where you can be wrong without any info. Especially on small sample.

Donkbet on flop would be bad. What sense to do it? I don't know why people think donkbet is good in many situations. Most of the time donkbet= exploiting yourself, because you fold many worse hands and get calls from better ones. It's not a powerful tool. You want to make villain to bet his air or get value from his worse hands on later streets and with donkbet it's not possible.

check/raise on turn is same bad idea. You turn your hand into a bluff because you only get call from better range.

 

[Hujiko]

Donkbet on flop would be bad. What sense to do it? I don't know why people think donkbet is good in many situations. Most of the time donkbet= exploiting yourself, because you fold many worse hands and get calls from better ones. It's not a powerful tool. You want to make villain to bet his air or get value from his worse hands on later streets and with donkbet it's not possible.

check/raise on turn is same bad idea. You turn your hand into a bluff because you only get call from better range.

Donk bet I actually agree (I almost never donk bet and certainly not on a flop with two broadway cards in it).

Turn I disagree. Yes I turned my hand into a bluff and yes I only get called by better hands. But that is not a reason not to bluff. My reason for the bluff is to fold out better hands then mine and to deny equity on hands that have a outs (AK has 7 outs and KK and AQ might fold on the check raise). As far as I know that is a good reason if there enough better hands that fold or his equity is high.

Not saying that this is the case here the bluff might still not be ok but then I want to know why?

btw it is not only the number of hands I saw I was on the table with him for a longer session so I saw him play so my opinion together with the number of hands made me belief that hes more of a LAG (or at least creative) then a more straightforward NIT or TAG or ROCK.

 

[Misaki]

Not saying that this is the case here the bluff might still not be ok but then I want to know why?

you don't know if he is able to fold aces or kings here. You want to represent the set here but still I don't think I would go with check/raise on turn with my set. This board is really dry. So if I would really have a set then I'm not afraid of many rivers.

It's depends from your gameplan generally with a top range. Probably with hands like QQ, JJ - I would play check/call, check/call, check/raise. Because I don't really have bluffs here at all. Then check/raise turn would be always a set and probably smart villain would fold here a lot. If we think this way then bluff KQo maybe would be good. But still it's a small percent of our range and I don't think we need this to bluff because I still think he is not bluffing there much and his range just beats us.

As a villain my thinking would be: what sense is to check/raise turn with set like QQ, JJ. Then probably I would call with aces. But still.. it's like thinking on different levels. In my opinion after you made a mistake preflop you don't need to complicate a spot more. Some villains are able to fold their overpairs, tptk here , some not. That's why I would just choose save option with folding the turn.

 

[braveslice]

I would also agree that calling 3bet from UTG with KQo is very bad move, there are 33 combos in villain's range that dominate when you hit.

{KdKh, KdKc, KhKc, QhQs, QhQc, QsQc, AdKd, AhKh, AcKc, AhQh, AsQs, AcQc, AdKh, AdKc, AhKd, AhKc, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AcKd, AcKh, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AhQs, AhQc, AsQh, AsQc, AcQh, AcQs}

To my learning purposes a) flop Q22, dominating combos 9 b) flop K22, dominating combos 9. But this obviously assumes AQ is a 3bet, given it's full ring I doubt that.

 

[Hujiko]

you don't know if he is able to fold aces or kings here. You want to represent the set here but still I don't think I would go with check/raise on turn with my set. This board is really dry. So if I would really have a set then I'm not afraid of many rivers.

It's depends from your gameplan generally with a top range. Probably with hands like QQ, JJ - I would play check/call, check/call, check/raise. Because I don't really have bluffs here at all. Then check/raise turn would be always a set and probably smart villain would fold here a lot. If we think this way then bluff KQo maybe would be good. But still it's a small percent of our range and I don't think we need this to bluff because I still think he is not bluffing there much and his range just beats us.

As a villain my thinking would be: what sense is to check/raise turn with set like QQ, JJ. Then probably I would call with aces. But still.. it's like thinking on different levels. In my opinion after you made a mistake preflop you don't need to complicate a spot more. Some villains are able to fold their overpairs, tptk here , some not. That's why I would just choose save option with folding the turn.

Thx for the constructive feedback. Yes perflop a clear mistake and I might have just been overthinking, also due to the preflop mistake, the spot and should have folded on the turn.

btw OOP my game plan with QQ and JJ on this board is to check-raise a lot here. My reason is that most of his none set hands wont bet the river in this situation as they hardly can get value of none-sets and I deny some equity on AK hands.

 

[c9h13no3]

You played the flop right? The rest is garbage.

 

[Bozovicdj]

First of all, in my experience betting UTG with only 2.4BB is on the small side. Usually you want to bet bigger when in EP and bet smaller when in LP, although a general rule, not necessary to implement always.
Aside from that, I am not sure a KQ is profitable raise UTG in FR. I mean, it is extremely hard to play it out of position (as you probably found out), also, you can't really know what hand ranges to expect from re-raises. Not only that, but all the graphs I collected over the years suggest KQo is not a hand to open with from UTG/UTG+1/UTG+2.
As for the post flop play, just check-call all streets. I mean, if your opponent does have AK, let him barrel the river as well, board is dry, that turn didn't improve opponents range, unless he has 66 (very unlikely). In case J, A or T would come, and your opponent shoved for example, I would think about folding far more then calling.