This is a discussion on $50 NLHE Full Ring: Good fold or bad fold? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; First game of session - Bomb Pot. Hero dealt TcTd in cutoff. Flop is Jh, Ts, 7h giving the set. I decide to check with
First game of session - Bomb Pot. Hero dealt TcTd in cutoff. Flop is Jh, Ts, 7h giving the set. I decide to check with the intention of raising later. Check around to BB who opens for 1/2 pot. UTG who had checked first, raises about 3/4 pot making it $51.88 to go. I'm getting ready to call all in when the HJ 3-bets all in for $48. Looking at the board HJ could have AA, KK, QQ, 77 or maybe JJ. Or he could have a flush draw or he could have the 8/9 in which case I'd need to pair the board or hit the last T. I have no history on the HJ and decide losing $2 in first hand better than losing $50 and I fold. There's more hands to come after all.
It was a bombed boat. In this case I think your flop decision was reasonable. You're not getting a good price to call in and it's a dangerous texture to look for going into a massive pot. HJ's V could do that with flush draws, but really the degree of variance that can exist in an MWB makes it necessary to prioritize reasonableness. Let's agree that you didn't have a choice preflop, so we're out of shape calling for a push with third nuts. This sounds pretty nit, but I think we need to consider the dynamics of the table. Regarding the stats I can't say anything, since no sample size convinces me except for the SB. I think without more information I would have played egual as you.
I think, this is a very nitty fold. If they are stacking off 2 pair, sets, straights and their best flushdraws, you have around 32,4% equity, which is more than enough given the pot odds. If they also stack off overpairs, you have 46,2%.