$50 NLHE Full Ring: flop 3bet with set on draw heavy board, river draw makes it folding correct I guess?

CheckraiseLife

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$50 NLHE Full Ring: flop 3bet with set on draw heavy board, river draw makes it folding correct I guess?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 32/20/4

121 hands silly fish, so far.
is it standard? or is that river a call? I meen his check call on turn just looks flushy to me I think its a fold, he is a total fish that looks like hes gunan call all bets to hit that draw so
I made my bets on the larger side so when I put him on the hand that gets there its always a fold I THINK*., possibly could have had 9,10 but theres more flush combos in his range than that
shame it wasnt a 2 or jack of diamonds eh? hows the play?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) -
BB ($95.23)
UTG ($50)
UTG+1 ($50)
Hero (MP1) ($50)
MP2 ($23.31)
MP3 ($86.38)
CO ($42.12)
Button ($49.35)
SB ($80.44)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8
club.gif
, 8
spade.gif

2 folds, Hero bets $1.50, 4 folds, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold
Flop: ($3.50) 8
diamond.gif
, J
heart.gif
, 4
diamond.gif
(2 players)
SB bets $1.75, Hero raises $7, SB calls $5.25
Turn: ($17.50) 2
heart.gif
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $15, SB calls $15
River: ($47.50) 3
diamond.gif
(2 players)
SB bets $35.75, Hero folds
Total pot: $47.50
 
acky100

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eugh, i can only think of like 9 combo's of hands we beat that i could match to his play here, maybe theres more if he would play like this with QQ or KK that he slowplayed but im thinking thats unlikely.

And if he has say 56,67,9T,TJ,JQ of diamonds then thats 60 combo's that have us beat already as a rough estimate. Thats without me putting any suited gappers in his range.

He does seem very aggro but, based on the way he's played this i dont think you're gonna be good enough to make this profitable. I would of folded too here.

Doesn't seem like theres many 2 pair type hands he could have no? Not sure if he'd even play like this with 2 pair anyways.
 
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baudib1

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looks good, this guy is flatting from SB with a ton of s00ted garbage.
 
MediaBLITZ

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The fold is certainly correct, but the flop bet could maybe have done a little more to protect your hand. Depends on villian's style. Did you consider re-popping him there? Tough spot
 
JOEBOB69

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The fold is certainly correct, but the flop bet could maybe have done a little more to protect your hand. Depends on villian's style. Did you consider re-popping him there? Tough spot
I see nothing wrong with the flop raise size.
 
MediaBLITZ

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I see nothing wrong with the flop raise size.
whoa, what the hell? Gotta lay off the pipe. I could have sworn I read the Villian reraised the hero on the flop and the hero called - WTF???

It was played correctly imo

Sorry for interupting with my ignorance.
 
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watchtowel

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I think this hand was played perfectly :) Folding means you win the big pots when he misses which is most of the time and don't pay him off when he hits !
 
c9h13no3

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I'm calling here, folding to LAGs isn't going to be profitable. The flop allows for more hands other than just flush draws.
 
c9h13no3

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Given his AF is 4.0, and the ratio of 8 out straight draws to flush draws is about 1:1.4, then we're getting close to the right pot odds to call if he bets all his broken straight draws and made flushes (2.32:1 vs. 2.4:1).

fl00sh.jpg
 
WVHillbilly

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No way I'm folding the river. We only have $26.50 left so we're getting almost 3 to 1 and he'll be bluffing/have 2pair/bottom set enough to make calling profitable imo.
 
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baudib1

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I don't think he'd ever play bottom set this way; what hands is he turning into a bluff besides T9/76hh?
 
c9h13no3

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what hands is he turning into a bluff besides T9/76hh?
Doesn't matter. If we're getting 3:1, and he bluffs those hands and bets flushes, then we show a profit. Not to mention that some combos of flush draws (T9s, AJs at least) are going to be 3-betting the flop.
 
CheckraiseLife

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some pretty loose advice here, I meen I was always taught that when a donk calls all bets and I put him on a draw and it gets there time to fold, I meen I can understand what your saying but it just sounds like so high varaince to call here.
Why not just pwn him more regulary than being behind in one hand I can get value from the fish in more ways than this lognterm surley? And if I'm goign all in on the river and he hits his draw he makes the perfect play on all streets knowing i'm goign all in - this turning me in to the donk.
 
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watchtowel

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I don't think I have ever been in a similar situation when it wasn't a flush. Why would he wait until his hand ( set or 2 pair) becomes more vulnerable then shove?
 
CheckraiseLife

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^ good point - surley when i bet big on turn hes shippin over two pairs, I could maybe see him thinking well I have a pair and that might be good but if its a diamond on the river i'm bluffing it, which made me post in first place....dam this confuses me a bunch calling might not be so bad here...but i think its slim
I could easily be havin some sort of combo flush draw here myself but i'm not giving the fish credit of a brain here to be honest lol.
 
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baudib1

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I can understand that we have a monster and getting good odds vs. a fairly aggro player. The problem is I can't construct a range where there are enough busted draws/bluffs and worse hands that value-bet. Even for a loose player, there's no real 2 pair here. He'd have to be calling down/turning something like 82s/43s into a bluff or something, and if he can have hands like that (he probably doesn't) his continuing range is going to have a ton of flushes.

Doesn't matter.

Even if you're correct (and I won't argue too vehemently on this, I don't think calling is terrible) that we should call, it does matter IMO to think about what he can have here, especially hands that call the turn and then bluff the river.

In a recent thread, you talked about a smaller-stakes player who showed a lot of strength (3-betting pre) shutting down his SD hands on a scare card, now you think he's turning KJss into a bluff?

I can see if he has AdJx and figures he's going to shove all red river cards to rep a flush while holding a blocker to the nuts but that'd be a pretty advanced play vs. someone he doesn't have extensive history with.
 
c9h13no3

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In a recent thread, you talked about a smaller-stakes player who showed a lot of strength (3-betting pre) shutting down his SD hands on a scare card, now you think he's turning KJss into a bluff?
It has to do with two things:

1) The mindset people play with when they have a hand like QQ or whatever. Its a lot different than the mindset of someone playing a flush draw.
2) This guy has an aggression factor of 4, with a VPIP of 32 playing full ring. That's crazy bat-shit high. Don't fold to these ****ers.
 
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baudib1

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It has to do with two things:

2) This guy has an aggression factor of 4, with a VPIP of 32 playing full ring. That's crazy bat-shit high. Don't fold to these ****ers.

I can buy this part of it; I suppose there's enough random shit he'll show up with to make it a good call 30% of the time.

I still think in general we should always think about his continuing range, what parts of that he'll check for value and what parts he'll turn into bluffs any time we're facing this type of action.
 
CheckraiseLife

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thinking of this hand I got to play it like i'm playign 10+ hands as the villain imo
firstly
QQ+ - if no reraise pre, I think when I re raise the flop most of the time he will reraise/shove flop, on the turn I think he will 100%

JJ and sets and two pair. - gets it in on the flop/turn no question.

Suited cards- maybe not even connected- are calling becuase hes a donk and i'm showing strenth he doesnt wanan ship all in yet, he knows hes beat currently

Nothing - with the intent to bluff...on the flop maybe on the turn its like such a gamble to call although he could very well think he can shove in on a heart also, although if it came a heart i'm callin there sicne the call on the flop would only make sence of a diamond draw to me.

9,10 - Could very well bluff the river and I think thats the only way i could be getting screwed here.

My Conclusion:
with my re raise on flop and big bet on the turn hes not really thinking of sets i assume* this is because hes a fish and playing so badly I dont see him thinking further. he might just put me on qq+ which makes me think he would make the above plays. The math doesnt take in to account how the villain plays each hand, and being able to deduce I think its only suited cards which there are plenty more combinations of everything else.
and 910, maybe he may have had qq he was playing scared and decided to bluff river? and with the 1 in a million crazy bluff he called the turn for. prety sure its more +ev fold
 
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WVHillbilly

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I think you're giving this guy too much credit. I'm literally never even contemplating a fold here.
 
c9h13no3

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prety sure its more +ev fold
[nitpick]folding is always 0 ev[/nitpick]

Also, if he bluffs T9, this call is +EV. So..... all this belly aching about his range is for naught. If you want to talk about it just to determine how +EV this call is, I'm fine with that.

And also, you're not exploitable by calling here. Villain put $21 into the pot, and he's going to make $26.50 when he hits if we call and he never bluffs (roflz). He's got a 1.9:1 draw and he's making 1.2:1 when he hits. He can't profit even if you pay him off every time.
 
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baudib1

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I included all combos of T9 as well as 76hh, all combos of AdJx and we need 4-1 to call:

Board: 8d Jh 4d 2h 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.667% 76.67% 00.00% 23 0.00 { AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad7d, Ad6d, A5s, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, JdTd, JsTs, Jd9d, T9s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 6d5d, 6h5h, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs }
Hand 1: 23.333% 23.33% 00.00% 7 0.00 { 8c8s }

If anything, this guy has more combos of suited trash than this, so I'd like to see what else we can add to his pure bluff + made hands-turned-into-bluff range.
 
rssurfer54

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[nitpick]folding is always 0 ev[/nitpick]

/nitpick. Since he thinks it's negative ev to call, it would be more plus ev to fold, zero is always greater than a negative number :)
 
c9h13no3

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I included all combos of T9 as well as 76hh, all combos of AdJx and we need 4-1 to call:

{ AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad7d, Ad6d, A5s, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, JdTd, JsTs, Jd9d, T9s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 6d5d, 6h5h, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs }
You're erroneously including all combos of A5s. Also, you're oddly including JsTs (jack-ten of spades). And you only included T9s, rather than T9o, which I think a guy like this plays. I also don't see any reason why he'd bluff AdJx, and I think he plays all suited aces.

Flushes + T9o + T9s
57.143% { AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, JdTd, Jd9d, T9s, 7d6d, 6d5d, 5d4d, T9o }
42.857% { 8c8s }

Flushes + T9s
86.957% { AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, JdTd, Jd9d, T9s, 7d6d, 6d5d, 5d4d }
13.043% { 8c8s }

You can add the backdoor heart draws if you like, or more flush draws because he plays more suited crap. This essentially just comes down to two things:

1) Can he turn a made hand into a bluff?
2) Does he play T9o.

If the answer to either of these questions is yes, you need to call the river. Given his aggression factor, I think #1 is possible. Given his VPIP of 32%, T9o is certainly in his range as well.

The moral of this story is that flushes really make up a small combo of hands. Everyone's very quick to put players on flush draws, when actually straight draws/top pair/ect. make up way more of your opponent's range.
 
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