$50 NLHE Full Ring: Bad call?

[charliej]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 35/27/4

I've been regretting this play since it went down but upon review, I'm not so sure it was bad. I admit that at the time, I had a few drinks in me and I blamed the play on that. A leak I'm working on is hero calls on big bets, especially on the River, when I'm probably beat. Anyway, here it is:


Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.5(BB)
EP ($53.32) [VPIP: 23.3% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 23.5% | Flop Agg: 38.1% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 11.8% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 93]
MP1 ($51.82) [VPIP: 22.1% | PFR: 16.8% | AGG: 22.9% | hands: 95]
MP2 ($45.94) [VPIP: 16.1% | PFR: 9.1% | AGG: 29.7% | Hands: 321]
HJ ($56.89) [VPIP: 52.9% | PFR: 16.2% | AGG: 31.5% | Hands: 68]
HERO ($88.80) [VPIP: 23.7% | PFR: 15% | AGG: 36.8% | Flop Agg: 37.2% | Turn Agg: 35% | River Agg: 38.8% | 3-Bet: 5.4% | 4-Bet: 9.1% | Cold Call: 14.8% | Hands: 23327]
BTN ($83.45) [VPIP: 35.3% | PFR: 26.6% | AGG: 26% | Flop Agg: 24.6% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 31.6% | 3-Bet: 12.3% | 4-Bet: 5.9% | Cold Call: 19.8% | Hands: 184]
SB ($73.35) [VPIP: 18.9% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 36.8% | Hands: 1164]
BB ($53.37) [VPIP: 16.6% | PFR: 13.2% | AGG: 31.3% | Hands: 205]
UTG ($77.89) [VPIP: 11.6% | PFR: 9.7% | AGG: 40.7% | Hands: 156]

Dealt to Hero: A:diamond: 2:diamond:

UTG Folds, EP Raises To $1.25, MP1 Folds, MP2 Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Calls $1.25, BTN Calls $1.25, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [11.57 effective]
Flop ($4.50): A:spade: 2:club: 6:diamond:
EP Bets $2.12 (Rem. Stack: $49.95), HERO Calls $2.12 (Rem. Stack: $85.43), BTN Raises To $4.24 (Rem. Stack: $77.96), EP Folds, HERO Raises To $13.43 (Rem. Stack: $74.12), BTN Raises To $82.20 (allin), HERO Calls $68.77 (Rem. Stack: $5.35)

Turn ($171.02): A:spade: 2:club: 6:diamond: 8:heart:

River ($171.02): A:spade: 2:club: 6:diamond: 8:heart: 3:club:

Spoiler

BTN shows: A:heart: 6:heart:

BTN wins: $168.02

At the table, I had the Villain labeled as a nut, so I didn't fully believe the All In bet. Upon review, I looked at his history and found he seems to play Broadways and any two Suited exclusively. I plugged the hand into Flopzilla which said my 2 pair had 69% equity vs set, 2 pair, top pair and 2 card backdoor flush draw. Pot odds at the time indicated I needed 42% equity to make the call (74.12/176.37). Of course, I didn't do this calculation at the table - I just reacted.

Appreciate any and all thoughts on the hand and my review.
Thanks!

 

[mktpppr]

P: loose flat, ATs/A9s+ and A5s A4s are better.

Maybe we even need better than that for 9max CO vs EP, but it's a 2.5x open, so probably evens out.

F: as played, raise vs EP's small cbet. Calling is ok-ish, but I prefer to raise OOP in a multi-way pot.

As played (call), just call again vs BU's weird min-raise multi-way.

As played (3bet), we have to fold vs 4bet jam. BU is repping a set and 2-pair (includes better).

He's not doing this with top pair BDFD combos: he min-raised multi-way initially.

If BU is 4bet jamming 164bb with top pair BDFD combos as well, then it's a call.

Also, 184 hands isn't a sample for postflop tendencies, especially not for huge weird spots.

 

[Sidetracked]

Preflop, I don't mind your flat. You have a nut flush draw and a wheel draw, so there are good implied odds with flushes and low straights.

At a full table with 9 players, the strength of a hand with which you're playing for 166 effective big blinds should be much higher than top and bottom pair. Particularly after the button raised the original raiser's cbet, alarm bells should have been going off.

Certainly call the flop min raise, and then reevaluate. Try to get to showdown as cheaply as you can, but maybe find a really tough fold if he starts shovelling money in on the turn and river.

Top and bottom, or bottom 2 pair are very different animals from top 2 pair. I learnt that lesson in many harsh hands as I was learning the game.

 

[loafaBREAD]

OK-

So one more vote for this being a bad flat pre. I just don't think you make those flushes/straights often enough, and you will be dominated so often if you do hit a pair.

On the flop you elect to just flat... if that is the case then you should play defensively versus BTN's raise. His raise is so small that it is a bit suspicious as well. With no natural bluffs here and him raising over a bet and a call, you should immediately suspect 66 (I haven't seen the spoiler yet btw).

Honestly, with no natural bluffs on the board, your hand turns into a bluff catcher unless BTN is willing to 4-bet all-in AK on the flop after flatting it pre... I mean how much of a nut is this guy?

I would just flat the raise on a board like this and evaluate the turn. You also have 66 and 22 in this spot to defend against his raises.

 

[eetenor]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 35/27/4

I've been regretting this play since it went down but upon review, I'm not so sure it was bad. I admit that at the time, I had a few drinks in me and I blamed the play on that. A leak I'm working on is hero calls on big bets, especially on the River, when I'm probably beat. Anyway, here it is:


Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.5(BB)
EP ($53.32) [VPIP: 23.3% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 23.5% | Flop Agg: 38.1% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 11.8% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 93]
MP1 ($51.82) [VPIP: 22.1% | PFR: 16.8% | AGG: 22.9% | Hands: 95]
MP2 ($45.94) [VPIP: 16.1% | PFR: 9.1% | AGG: 29.7% | Hands: 321]
HJ ($56.89) [VPIP: 52.9% | PFR: 16.2% | AGG: 31.5% | Hands: 68]
HERO ($88.80) [VPIP: 23.7% | PFR: 15% | AGG: 36.8% | Flop Agg: 37.2% | Turn Agg: 35% | River Agg: 38.8% | 3-Bet: 5.4% | 4-Bet: 9.1% | Cold Call: 14.8% | Hands: 23327]
BTN ($83.45) [VPIP: 35.3% | PFR: 26.6% | AGG: 26% | Flop Agg: 24.6% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 31.6% | 3-Bet: 12.3% | 4-Bet: 5.9% | Cold Call: 19.8% | Hands: 184]
SB ($73.35) [VPIP: 18.9% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 36.8% | Hands: 1164]
BB ($53.37) [VPIP: 16.6% | PFR: 13.2% | AGG: 31.3% | Hands: 205]
UTG ($77.89) [VPIP: 11.6% | PFR: 9.7% | AGG: 40.7% | Hands: 156]

Dealt to Hero: A♦ 2♦

UTG Folds, EP Raises To $1.25, MP1 Folds, MP2 Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Calls $1.25, BTN Calls $1.25, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [11.57 effective]
Flop ($4.50): A♠ 2♣ 6♦
EP Bets $2.12 (Rem. Stack: $49.95), HERO Calls $2.12 (Rem. Stack: $85.43), BTN Raises To $4.24 (Rem. Stack: $77.96), EP Folds, HERO Raises To $13.43 (Rem. Stack: $74.12), BTN Raises To $82.20 (allin), HERO Calls $68.77 (Rem. Stack: $5.35)

Turn ($171.02): A♠ 2♣ 6♦ 8♥

River ($171.02): A♠ 2♣ 6♦ 8♥ 3♣

Spoiler

BTN shows: A♥ 6♥

BTN wins: $168.02

At the table, I had the Villain labeled as a nut, so I didn't fully believe the All In bet. Upon review, I looked at his history and found he seems to play Broadways and any two Suited exclusively. I plugged the hand into Flopzilla which said my 2 pair had 69% equity vs set, 2 pair, top pair and 2 card backdoor flush draw. Pot odds at the time indicated I needed 42% equity to make the call (74.12/176.37). Of course, I didn't do this calculation at the table - I just reacted.

Appreciate any and all thoughts on the hand and my review.
Thanks!

Thank you for posting.

Have not seen results.

Every player of any style recognizes an A on the board. Your raises suggest a very strong hand and yet the V shoved.

So can we really think this V is trying to get an Ax to fold on a A26 R board after all you can have 22 66 as well as A2 A6 They have position why gamble the whole stack on a weak draw?

So I would say there is a 5% chance this is a crazy bluff 20% chance it is AX one pair
Which leaves 75% better hand.

You may adjust these estimates but if they are close to true we have to fold to the shove.

Checking results now

The data did suggest this type of hand most frequently.

Hope this helps

 

[mikeisthebestever]

Without having seen the outcome ;

I think your raise is really good, but I think you can safely fold when he moves all in. There are just NO bluffs here. I think his stats pretty safely rule out AK AQ types of hands because they would have been 3-bet. Hands that overcall the flop probably suited aces, and baby pairs. Hands that take this line.. Probably A2 and A6.. I think sets would probably just call most of the time due to texture. So imo you are calling for a chop at best. I think the takeaway here is that 5-bets post flop are underbluffed and usually nutted, and your hand is a bluff catcher.

 

[Niykk]

You hold A♦ 2♦. It's always a call in your case.

Taking the flop A♠ 2♣ 6♦ into consideration you should've called the BTN raise to $4.24. I think it's a big mistake to 3-bet to $13.43.
BTN 4-bet to $82.20 is a clear sign that he had you beat, because you hold the weakest paired A with a possible but not likely flush and an extremely far fetched straight.

If you do the math, you will realize that it's not really worth your 3-bet, let alone calling a 4-bet to $82.20, since any set and straight draw (as unlikely as it could be) beats you, as well as any other A combo. The BTN could've easily had 6, 6 for example or as he did a better A, or even pocket pair 2, 2 having a set on the flop. So is it worth calling his all-in?!?

After the turn you should be folding any paired weak aces if faced with unreasonable pot odds or/ and low realized hand equity etc.

Leave the ego aside and think maths.

Of course taking into consideration V's tendencies, such as how many hands he gets into, bluffing frequency, all-in frequency etc., is a must. In your case I think it's a fold once V goes all in.

 

[gustav197poker]

Preflop you could show a little more aggressiveness with hands like A2s, as the opening comes from a fairly tight position for a long table, which puts your equity a little below an acceptable limit. Also when you call you are accepting a MWB which doesn't benefit you much in the long run as you represent a weaker range before BTN and the blinds make their decision.

Probably someone with a PFR: 26.6% and a sample of 184 hands could defend with a fairly wide range, as an example: 22+, A2s+, K5s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A2o+, KJo+.
That means this type of opponent can include OTF all AX off combos from BTN. Which significantly increases the chance that you will face better hands.
Also using common sense, when the EP bets half pot on a super dry board and you call, it's pretty obvious that BTN is making a squeez of pure value. V does not need to bluff here, as he is in the best position to read all the previous information and make a more reasonable decision for the specific sequence.
Greetings.