$50 NLHE 6-max: River X is fine or bet?

[Kroeska]

888Poker Snap, Hold'em No Limit - $0.25/$0.50 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $50.77 (102 bb)
MP (Hero): $91.46 (183 bb)
CO: $51.50 (103 bb)
BU: $28.51 (57 bb)
SB: $52.44 (105 bb)
BB: $24.76 (50 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with Q♠ K♠
UTG raises to $1.25, Hero calls $1.25, 3 players fold, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($4) 5♣ 6♥ Q♦ (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $2, Hero calls $2, BB calls $2

Turn: ($10) 8♥ (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $3.40, BB calls $3.40, UTG folds

River: ($16.80) Q♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $16.80 (Rake: $0.84)

Showdown:
MP (Hero) shows Q♠ K♠ (three of a kind, Queens - higher kicker)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 75%, Flop: 86%, Turn: 93%, River: 100%)

BB shows T♦ Q♣ (three of a kind, Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 25%, Flop: 14%, Turn: 7%, River: 0%)

MP (Hero) wins $15.96

Hi all!

What do you think of this hand? Do you think the call pre is fine, or 3B? We are in early positions, PFR of UTG was 18 overall.
On the turn my hand feels to strong to check, I bet, probably had to go larger, like 7-9?
River I was worried about V had made his straight on the turn or made his flush. Maybe some slowplayed sets. Didn't thought to get a lot of value here, so I checked. I could bet 1/3 to 1/2 pot to get a call from a 8, maybe a 6. Of course I felt bad, but it feels like it's fine here. When river was the Q of space, I probably go for a bet.

Thanks a lot in advance for replying. Have a nice day!

 

[SPYDER1998]

You should've bet 2/3 to overbet on the river to get value from Qx with lower kicker like QJ or QT. They will not fold to big bet if they have a queen. and fold to a shove I think, once the villain re-raises you its very value heavy due to the board texture.

 

[Alex_Ogienko]

To bet on value on the river, we need to have more than 50-55% equity against our opponent's range. Obviously, against the big blind's range, we have enough equity to bet on value. Therefore, we can safely collect money from him in this spot.

 

[300HPGOD]

I am fine with the way you played this hand from start to finish. I would bet a little larger on the turn then you did but its splitting hairs since my larger bet would only be larger by 50 or 75 cents. The river I can see either way to be honest but this is a key situation where you have to make up your mind what you are going to do if you get raised before you make this bet. With the villain calling the turn they should not have (we dont know but Im going to write shouldnt have) 5x or 6x so their turn calling range is Qx, 1010 and 99 that play the hand this way with the pre over call and calling two on the flop (discount this as well), 8x (how many 8x call on the flop), 7x straight draw, and flush draws. I think a set, rare 74 straight, and rare two pair hands check raise the turn there on this board so Ill discount those.

If we then bet on the river 7x is folding, 8x (not many imo due to flop action), 99, 1010 are calling (again I put a fairly big discount on 99 and 1010 but possible), Qx (not many of them that would call pre) and flush draws are check raising (I think Qx is check raising which is debatable but it is important as Ill get into). The point I am trying to make is if we are betting this river we need to decide are we calling a check raise or not. If we arent going to call worried about a flush and then smaller Qxs are going to raise then our only value target is 8x and the I think rare 99 and 1010 which is narrow. This again really comes down to does Qx check raise us but I believe the answer is yes (I also think without knowing of course that this was the plan of villain for this hand). If we are folding to that raise then I think we are better off checking. If we are calling a raise (right or wrong) then its definitely a spot where we can be way ahead.

 

[liuouhgkres]

Preflop: 3bet only. I don't think you should have a calling range at all positions except BTN and BB.

Flop: Standard call. If there was no BB, you could think of raising, but with BB in hand you can't do it.

Turn: Against one player it's a bet. However, against 2 players I'm not sure. BB can have ton of sets, 2 pairs and straights. You won't get much value by betting and you can easily get your self in trouble facing a check-raise. Also, I don't like your sizing. I think you used this sizing on auto-pilot. You probably bet small when OOP raiser checks turn, right? However, in this hand we have BB, who can have flush draws, pair+straight draws etc. You won't fold out any equity by betting small. When we bet small we fold out 6 outers, but you don't need it, because you have K in your hand. If you bet, you should bet bigger, like 75%. However, with this particular hand you should check back.

River: As played, I think you should go for thin value. You should get called by QJ, QT, Q9. Good thing is that villain didn't raise the turn, so you can discount his full houses and straights. Board looks very scary, but because of action on previous streets, you won't get raised very often here. You should go for 75% pot, it will get called by Qx and most probably villain will not raise his flushes, since you have full houses too. Bet 75% pot, fold to raise.