$50 NLHE 6-max: Do you bet the river?

[Kroeska]

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/1a1RyPuP

Hi all! I think my check on the river is just fine, but I would love to hear your opinion about it. Could I have some bets here? I could bet like 30/35% of pot and could get value of some hands, like in this spot KJ. He would call this bet of 30/35%. Of course he fold all his missed draws on river, but could have like KQ that beat me.

What do you think of my turn size? I can go a bit higher I quess? In this spot my hand bets fine on turn for value, do you have any advice on medium hands that you want to protect for straights/flushes, but isn't good enough to bet for value?

Like always in advance many thanks for your reply, it helps me a lot! Have a nice day, Regards!

 

[gustav197poker]

Yes, in these places I am playing by stacks, mainly because of the ranges that are played: CO vs BTN. The villain ended up paying with KJs. But most likely he also pays with K9s; K8s; K7s; K6s. Bearing in mind that he doesn't block flush draw combos in your range and he believes that a good deal of the time the pot will be a split, due to the Q. Regarding the queen of the table, V is expected to call more times in preflop with KQs than with KQo, but you only unlock a suitable combo and eliminate the remaining 75%. So the final effect is neutral and then both V and hero could represent this hand.
You should always project rank V based on the situation you face in your rank. For example, here a larger OTT bet could represent trips of 2 or a flush draw, when V has an ace assigned in his range. So on the river it will be more standard for hero, to push with all the failed draws. Also if the villain plays exploitative, he may think that having a club king is good here, because this would increase the probability of splitting, when he thinks he can block a hand like AKs.
Greetings.

 

[Kroeska]

Yes, in these places I am playing by stacks, mainly because of the ranges that are played: CO vs BTN. The villain ended up paying with KJs. But most likely he also pays with K9s; K8s; K7s; K6s. Bearing in mind that he doesn't block flush draw combos in your range and he believes that a good deal of the time the pot will be a split, due to the Q. Regarding the queen of the table, V is expected to call more times in preflop with KQs than with KQo, but you only unlock a suitable combo and eliminate the remaining 75%. So the final effect is neutral and then both V and hero could represent this hand.
You should always project rank V based on the situation you face in your rank. For example, here a larger OTT bet could represent trips of 2 or a flush draw, when V has an ace assigned in his range. So on the river it will be more standard for hero, to push with all the failed draws. Also if the villain plays exploitative, he may think that having a club king is good here, because this would increase the probability of splitting, when he thinks he can block a hand like AKs.
Greetings.

Thanks a lot for your reply. Had to read it multiple times to understand (it is hard for me sometimes..), but I understand now and it helps me a lot improving my game. Again, Thanks a lot for your time, you are great Gustav!

 

[300HPGOD]

Ill be quick running up to the river. I think pre flop is fine although I think you could probably go a little smaller pre flop if you wanted to and still achieve fold equity from and keep those behind out but the sizing is fine. Flop I personally would go a little bigger as Qx still calls and flush draws call. Turn I would have gone smaller as I would think villains call range would shrink here (I think Qx should be at least considering folding if not actually folding) so we dont need to go as big. When we do get called on the turn I am putting villain on either Kx including KQ. That is not to say that I am scared but at this point I think they should dump their Qx and flush draws as the price should deter the draws and Qx in a 3 bet pot here is not great (maybe too much credit for villain but that would be my mindset).

On the river I start thinking will villain call with K10 and KJ since we have to think of what hands do they call a 3 bet pre with that are Kx. I think villains holdings here are almost exclusively Kx with x being 10+ (minus KK). Possible we might see two sticky clubs here outside of Kx of clubs but we know those are never calling a river bet. It comes down to does K10 and KJ call a small bet here on the river? Also, what are our plans if we get raised here on the river? How good to we think villain is and would they bluff raise the river? Most players dont but if we are legitimately worried about it we should just check behind. If we think K10 folds here then we should probably check behind.

I personally think either is fine checking vs betting but I believe betting is better here. I go something like $15 into the $39 pot and see if we can get a crying call from Kx that might see two pair on the board and think they do not have to worry about their kicker anymore. KQ is still possible but I think we hear about that earlier at least some of the time when there is a flush draw on that board. Some players will just call with it (nothing wrong with villain letting us hang ourselves) so KQ is possible. I would not want to get raised in this spot so that is on my mind here but if I bet $15 and got jammed on that leaves 2 to 1 on a call so it comes down to bluffing frequency I guess. That last sentence is why I think checking is still fine but it depends on villain as always and I still like trying to target Kx there even though that is only a few combos I just dont see what else villain could get to this point with the way the hand played other than some Kx.

 

[300HPGOD]

So on the river it will be more standard for hero, to push with all the failed draws.
Greetings.

I read your post after entering mine and I did not think of this point you make. Very astute thinking that we can jam here and villain could think we are on a missed flush draw. Villain would have to think we 3 bet with AJ, J10, or 98 suited type hands but that could be in our range depending on our 3 bet stats. I do like the level of thinking your on where what does villain put us on but I am still working on that myself and need to get better at it. Really good point brought up by you

 

[loafaBREAD]

^ I like what the others have said.

Pre- you could go smaller, but since you are slightly deeper than 100bb it might be ok to size up a tad.

Flop- I think you can 1/2 pot this, as V isn't folding this board too often.

...

River could be a jam. After a larger flop bet, it'd be closer to a pot sized bet and yes, V can call with worse on that river.

 

[Kroeska]

HP and BREAD, thanks a lot for your reply!