$50 AK, tough river decision

hott_estelle

hott_estelle

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pokerstars Game #9508735233: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/04/19 - 20:48:25 (ET)
Table 'Alnilam III' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: xxJimmyMacxx ($48.25 in chips)
Seat 2: Shylove ($50 in chips)
Seat 3: Redflash6913 ($60.45 in chips)
Seat 4: lahita ($56.85 in chips)
Seat 5: fishhunt2005 ($10.65 in chips)
Seat 6: joosebucklol ($76.65 in chips)
Seat 7: hott_estelle ($49.50 in chips)
Seat 8: Xian_Hua ($29.25 in chips)
Seat 9: Mirigom ($8.25 in chips)
xxJimmyMacxx: posts small blind $0.25
Shylove: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hott_estelle [Kd Ac]
Redflash6913: calls $0.50
lahita: calls $0.50
fishhunt2005: folds
joosebucklol: calls $0.50
hott_estelle: raises $2 to $2.50
Xian_Hua: folds
Mirigom: folds
xxJimmyMacxx: folds
Shylove: folds
Redflash6913: calls $2
lahita: calls $2
joosebucklol: calls $2
*** FLOP *** [Kc 2h 7s]
Redflash6913: checks
lahita: checks
joosebucklol: checks
hott_estelle: bets $4.50
Redflash6913: calls $4.50
lahita: folds
joosebucklol said, "my poor browdawg sooners left"
joosebucklol said, "i miss that ****"
joosebucklol: folds
*** TURN *** [Kc 2h 7s] [2s]
Redflash6913: bets $8
hott_estelle: calls $8
*** RIVER *** [Kc 2h 7s 2s] [6c]
Redflash6913: bets $16
hott_estelle: ???

What can we put him on here?? Can we put him on 77, 66, or even AA?? KK very doubtful, A2 very doubtful, what can we put him on here?

Tough call or do we fold here??
 
hott_estelle

hott_estelle

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Board is paired, or did you miss that??
 
H

homerphobe

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You're not kidding when you say tough decision. The only reasonable hand would be 77 as far as I'm concerned. I'd seriously doubt AA. Why would he call and increase the pot odds for the rest of the limpers. It would be completely reasonable if he reraised, though. 66 wouldn't fit with the turn bet. A2 is a possibility,especially at small stakes, but I'd probably have to call and see it. If he was playing anything but 77 it's good info for the future as you'll be able to value bet against his weak hands all day.
 
Stefanicov

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i put him on kq kj a 7 i bet all in and see what happens


ps if he had u beat it shows how terrible a player i am
 
alexanderwoo1

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I would call just to see if he has it. If you lose at least you gain information on how he plays, by how he play this hand.
 
blankoblanco

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Definitely don't go all-in. That's pretty reckless.

I see KQ take this line a lot (right down to the UTG limp), although it could easily be 77. Seems like KQ, KJ, or 77. Looks like a reluctant call to me. Hard to put him solidly on one set based on his actions, what with no raising of any sort in the hand.

edit: i should add if we know villain to be a pretty good player, it starts to lean it more towards a fold in my mind, because while KQ or KJ are very possible, they're on the more donkish side of the range, and there's really no draws to speak of, so if he thinks at all, he should know you have some kind of hand
 
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alexanderwoo1

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Well I would put him on a set of deuces, ace with low kicker, or a big bad bluff.
 
hott_estelle

hott_estelle

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Well I would put him on a set of deuces, ace with low kicker, or a big bad bluff.

LOL.

You just put him on he has me dominated, I have him dominated, he has absolutely nothing.

Great reads, thanks for the analysis.
 
Four Dogs

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He limped and then just check called the flop. He's not afraid of the king and for some reason he takes control of the betting when the duece falls on the turn. There are no flopped draws so it's unlikey that he would have hung around with A2s and A7s wouldn't have reacted that way to the turned duece. Pocket 7's is the only thing that makes sense to me. Dueces too but not likely. 77 is a limping hand and also a hand that might be dragged a bit when it sets up. If that's it then the duece virtually sealed it for him. I like his bet sizing on the turn and the river. Definately the right amount to get some action from TPTK or anything better.
 
JenksVIP

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Im Raising all day long. I think they are just trying to push you off the hand. Why bet out at it on the river? only thing i think is a bluff
 
hott_estelle

hott_estelle

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He limped and then just check called the flop. He's not afraid of the king and for some reason he takes control of the betting when the duece falls on the turn. There are no flopped draws so it's unlikey that he would have hung around with A2s and A7s wouldn't have reacted that way to the turned duece. Pocket 7's is the only thing that makes sense to me. Dueces too but not likely. 77 is a limping hand and also a hand that might be dragged a bit when it sets up. If that's it then the duece virtually sealed it for him. I like his bet sizing on the turn and the river. Definately the right amount to get some action from TPTK or anything better.

So can you fold here FD? Do you fold or call?
 
J

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There is no read on this player i'm assuming since you don't mention anything about him. I think you have to at least call here. If he does have 77 then he played it bizarre by check/calling the flop, and then taking over betting on the turn, which makes me lean toward thinking he doesn't have it, nor does he have 22 for same reason. 66 wouldn't explain his betting pattern either. With K2 I think he would of check/raised the flop. I just have a feeling you have him beat here, unless he has A2 which kind of makes him a poor player, possible since you have no read. KQ, KJ seem more likely to me, or perhaps AK.
 
hott_estelle

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No didn't have any reads on him, but a few hands before some guy was calling him the fish at the table. But I don't go off of other people's reads.
 
Four Dogs

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So can you fold here FD? Do you fold or call?
You know what they say about TPTK. They give implied odds, they don't get them. I have a sick feeling about this one. I'd have to let it go. I guess it could be a bluff, but if it is, it's a bad one. Certainly not up to my high standards.:rolleyes:
 
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blankoblanco

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Im Raising all day long. I think they are just trying to push you off the hand. Why bet out at it on the river? only thing i think is a bluff

Your first sentence conflicts completely with the rest. If you think they're bluffing, what are we raising for? A bluff can't call. A raise is incredibly reckless. We push out almost any hand we beat, get called by every hand that beats us. That's called losing money.
 
MrDaMan

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There's a majr leak in my game that I try to pay attention too and that's not believing someone when they bet... I think theyre trying to bluff me.

By my first read of the hand history that's my impression, this player has a few chips and is playing a little loose and aggressive, he's trying to push you a new player to see if you'll allow him to keep control of the game.

But he's UTG what's he going to call a 2.00 pre-flop bet with? There's not enough information on this player to work with but my gut feeling is he's playing "lucky" and called with a x/2 sooted. I re-raise the turn and find out if he's got the nut or just balls. If he re-raises I probably fold there, if he calls I hope he checks the river and check it down. If he bets .. I probably fold.

At these low limit tables I get people calling raises all the time just because they want to bust someone with a premium hand with a mediocre hand. From what little information I see here I think he's one of these kinds of players. Great to have at your table over the long haul once you know their style but hard to read if you just sat down.

Yeah I might spend 16 bucks to get that info on him and add him to my "free money" list. If that's what he had .. on the other hand pocket 7's, 2's or K/Q whatever it is is a possibility ... other pocket pair? 10/10 or J/J?

On the other hand I've been busted by this kind of thing before, it depends on my luck/swing/reads if it's good I call, if it's not I fold and look for a better hand/flop combination while observing this player for future referance.

What did he have? Did you play it out?
 
Four Dogs

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Holy cow! You get all of that from one hand? Are you a Gypsy?
 
hott_estelle

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Results

PokerStars Game #9508735233: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/04/19 - 20:48:25 (ET)
Table 'Alnilam III' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: xxJimmyMacxx ($48.25 in chips)
Seat 2: Shylove ($50 in chips)
Seat 3: Redflash6913 ($60.45 in chips)
Seat 4: lahita ($56.85 in chips)
Seat 5: fishhunt2005 ($10.65 in chips)
Seat 6: joosebucklol ($76.65 in chips)
Seat 7: hott_estelle ($49.50 in chips)
Seat 8: Xian_Hua ($29.25 in chips)
Seat 9: Mirigom ($8.25 in chips)
xxJimmyMacxx: posts small blind $0.25
Shylove: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hott_estelle [Kd Ac]
Redflash6913: calls $0.50
lahita: calls $0.50
fishhunt2005: folds
joosebucklol: calls $0.50
hott_estelle: raises $2 to $2.50 (standard raise here, don't fear much behind me, joose could limp with anything, but raise is right play here for sure)
Xian_Hua: folds
Mirigom: folds
xxJimmyMacxx: folds
Shylove: folds
Redflash6913: calls $2 (3 callers, didn't really expect all the limpers to call, maybe should have raised a bit more)
lahita: calls $2
joosebucklol: calls $2
*** FLOP *** [Kc 2h 7s]
Redflash6913: checks
lahita: checks
joosebucklol: checks
hott_estelle: bets $4.50
Redflash6913: calls $4.50 (when he called I thought maybe KQ, KJ even or QQ/JJ or possibly slow playing 22/77)
lahita: folds
joosebucklol said, "my poor browdawg sooners left"
joosebucklol said, "i miss that ****"
joosebucklol: folds
*** TURN *** [Kc 2h 7s] [2s]
Redflash6913: bets $8 (bets out to me, 22 is doubtful now, still possibly 77 as the only hand here, I really don't have KK or AA in here, because I think he reraises preflop over the top of me with AA or KK, because he doesn't want to make it a 4-way pot, so at this point only really fearing 77, which I didn't think he had)
hott_estelle: calls $8
*** RIVER *** [Kc 2h 7s 2s] [6c]
Redflash6913: bets $16 (read commentary below from me, on what I think he had, or well didn't have, and why I called)
hott_estelle said, "i really cant see pocket 7s"
hott_estelle said, "definitely not AA"
hott_estelle said, "not A2"
hott_estelle said, "i hav to see"
hott_estelle: calls $16
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Redflash6913: shows [Ah As] (two pair, Aces and Deuces)
hott_estelle: mucks hand
hott_estelle said, "ooo, so nice of you"
Redflash6913 collected $64.75 from pot
hott_estelle said, "that was weird"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $67.75 | Rake $3
Board [Kc 2h 7s 2s 6c]
Seat 1: xxJimmyMacxx (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: Shylove (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Redflash6913 showed [Ah As] and won ($64.75) with two pair, Aces and Deuces
Seat 4: lahita folded on the Flop
Seat 5: fishhunt2005 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: joosebucklol folded on the Flop
Seat 7: hott_estelle mucked [Kd Ac]
Seat 8: Xian_Hua folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Mirigom (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
 
NineLions

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I'm curious Estelle; did you play with him long enough after this to find out whether he continued to make unusual plays, or was this somewhat isolated? An instance of "mixing it up"?
 
calibanboy

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Interesting Hand.

When I Saw his repetitive 1/2 pot bets I put him on the same hand as you ( AK ), or AA. ( eg overpair ).

Reasonable value bets as he knows he is very probably ahead ( or at least equal if AK ).

I would have called out of curiosity for the same reason you did. I have seen lots of Muppets keep betting Q,Q at these stakes. They do not want to believe that they are beaten as when they were dealt the whole cards they think they are going to win and just keep beting regardless.
 
hott_estelle

hott_estelle

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LOL, no idea how that angry smily face got there, really. Accidently must have clicked it. I'm not mad at all, lol.

Interesting Hand.

When I Saw his repetitive 1/2 pot bets I put him on the same hand as you ( AK ), or AA. ( eg overpair ).

Reasonable value bets as he knows he is very probably ahead ( or at least equal if AK ).

I would have called out of curiosity for the same reason you did. I have seen lots of Muppets keep betting Q,Q at these stakes. They do not want to believe that they are beaten as when they were dealt the whole cards they think they are going to win and just keep beting regardless.

After I post you reply to what you think he had?? Bit of a results oriented answer isn't it??
 
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calibanboy

calibanboy

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After I post you reply to what you think he had?? Bit of a results oriented answer isn't it??

Hello,

I am based in the UK - this is the first time I have seen this hand when I woke up this morning.

I read the hand at the top, made my mind up and then read the rest of it and posted.

My initial though was AK - with both AA and QQ a possibility as I said.

I also stated I would have called - how can this be results orientated?
 
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