$5 NLHE Full Ring: TPGK facing river bet

[siwanat99]

should I fold river? I don't see many hands that I can beat him KT and miss flush
If river is not 9 and it's blank card will u call I lose to KJ K9 QT sometime AK
or I should check OTT I'm so bad at Top pair

CO : Vpip 28 PFR 7 AF 1
https://upswingpoker.com/hand/?pokeit=624veVosS

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard open. We get three callers. Not quite as standard, but not uncommon for micro stake games either.

Flop
Top pair second kicker on a moderately draw heavy board. This might look like a super standard spot to C-bet for value, but we need to realise, that when 4 players saw the flop, the pot can quickly get very large, and we dont have a hand, that like to play a large pot multiway. So I actually think, checking is the best play here, but a small C-bet is certainly not terrible.

Turn
Only one player called on the flop, but unfortunately it was the one with position on you. Fairly brick turn card, as played 100% standard spot to continue betting for value against his draws, worse KX etc.

River
The first decision is, do we check or bet for value? And I actually think, its pretty close. He is semi-loose passive, so maybe he will actually pay a small river bet with enough worse hands to compensate for the times, he has you beat. Its certainly fine also to check though, and against a player like this, who makes a substantial river bet, I also think, its fine to fold. Your hand is clearly only a bluff catcher, he is not betting for value with anything worse, and passive players tend to not bluff very often.

 

[kkonicke]

I tend to agree with most of above, but I lean towards a call here. The hands I think villain can have here are K9, 99, QT, and all flush draws. Those are the only realistic hands I see that a value bet makes sense. I don't think he'd slowplay a set or top 2 for this long given the board, I think you'd get some action on the turn or sooner.

As for hands you beat, missed flush draws are about it. I think all flush draws have to play check/call the whole way in his position. On the flop, he wants all the callers if possible because his odds of winning don't really change much based on the number of callers...assuming he has flush draw. On the turn, you show to have a pretty strong hand and it's unlikely he's going to push you off your Kx...so he has minimal fold equity with a check raise so a call makes sense. When you check the river, it blows the door wide open for him to try and steal. I think there are enough bluffs here that you can make this call.

 

[Sidetracked]

As played, I think a check/call on the river is better than a check fold. After betting 2 streets, then checking the river, he could easily bet with worse just because you have now showed weakness.

 

[Aballinamion]

UTG x Multiple Callers

should I fold river? I don't see many hands that I can beat him KT and miss flush
If river is not 9 and it's blank card will u call I lose to KJ K9 QT sometime AK
or I should check OTT I'm so bad at Top pair

CO : Vpip 28 PFR 7 AF 1
https://upswingpoker.com/hand/?pokeit=624veVosS

Hello there siwanat99, thank you for sharing your hand.
Your preflop raise is fine, having knowledge of the table.
When CO, SB and BB call your raise, it is better to rethink your overall strategy (usually c-betting flop, in the case of a heads-up, either if we were in position or out of position).
For instance, if only CO calls we can safely go for a 1/2 pot bet, for value and protection, because the flop is too drawie/connected.
If only one player in the blinds call, we have position now and having information that they pay too much in the flop, or if they fold too much to c-bet to adjust the proper postflop action. Knowing that they pay too much, I could go for a 1/2 pot flop and 60-75% in turns that are good for my range.

The postflop problems of a c-bet for value in a 4-handed pot:

This is a very tricky flop for us, when we have so many callers involved in the hand. Are we really sure that if we bet this flop is a bet for value?
Although this flop seems good for our range, because now we will have almost all the combos of AA, KK, JJ, AK, AJ, KJ and KQ.
However, these player could easily have broadways in their ranges that decided to call here, given that UTG has a very strong range.
Anyways, I don't believe a c-bet here is so good, given that the pot is already too big and we are still out of position in relation to the CO player.
We are betting nearly 1/2 pot here to be in very complicated turn scenarios:

A) When it completes another Diamond
B) When it completes another overcard: Tx, Jx, Qx, Ax, 9x, 8x.

There are several turns that are going to good for our range. But these elements quoted in object B, such as Tx, Jx, Ax, 9x, 8x and sometimes the King of Diamonds that give us a trips and completes a flush and the Queen of Diamonds that give us top two pair and completes a flush. Complicated and hard scenario to play, at minimum.

The Turn is a good card for our range!

For our lucky, only the CO continues our c-bet. And the 4 of Hearts makes our lives a little easier since it didn't complete anything that we don't block. I like the size you used, and we can use it this size here both for value and for bluff when you have:

AA, KK, JJ, KJ, KQ, AT, AQ, AJ, AK, and of course the combo OESD+FD.

I like this bet of 70% both for value as for bluff in situations like this. The best bluff we could have here it would be AQdd that will have both straight and flush draw and we could be bluffing here with a huge equity in many rivers.

The River sucks!

As I said before, the 9x is not a good card for our range. Okay, we are blocking some of its straights because we have a Qh on our range, but this is 5 NLHE guys! Almost a 100% of times this guy will show AK (that it decided to call versus UTG), KJ, K9, J9, 54s, 55, 44, if the CO is a really weak player it also will show K5s, J5s, and K4s, K5s. Once in a while CO will have QT.
However, the player in the CO still can have a lot of missed draws of diamonds, worst kings and air bluffs. This is a very close spot, and with some little reading of the opponent is a sure call.
Remember the odds: we need to be right here only 1 out of 3 times for our call to be profitable. Unless the CO player is a NIT with a very low aggression factor, I believe it is a very hard, but close call in this river, even when it completes the 9x.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[fundiver199]

Against aggressive players I agree with those, who suggest to check-call the river. However VPIP 28 / PFR 7 / AF 1 is a semi-loose passive bad reg, and these players tend to be very straight forward. For starters he is the kind of guy, who can also have AK here, because he did not 3-bet pre, he can have all 12 combos of QT, because he call bad offsuit hands etc.

 

[siwanat99]

OTF If I'm last to act and they check to me should I bet ? maybe small c-bet
I agree that check/call is good but this time I think my mistake is making the pot large I
if there's only one caller I can call bluff cheaper but this time is too expensive
and I agree with fundiver with passive players tend to not bluff very often

and they don't bet too big with TPNK thank you so much everyone

 

[Casey55]

I like a good raise on the flop, so many draws to get value from, I like 2/3 pot on flop and re-evaluate on turn , if we get check raised on the flop we can make a decision based on the size and villains likely range possibly folding , but I would want to extract value on this board I think half pot not creating fold equity if 1 player calls the rest get better pot odds. If we get called and turn is sketchy we can check and see what transpires possibly folding if we think we are behind or calling if we get good odds. I don’t think villain has 2 pairs or sets in his range I would expect him to raise flop or turn, river maybe better to lead out half pot and fold to a raise but I understand why you checked