The Leveling Wars, Episode IV: UTG vs UTG+1 Cold Calling Range
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 19/14/2
PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
UTG+1: 100 BB
MP: 114.2 BB
CO: 100.2 BB
BTN: 96.4 BB
SB: 92.6 BB
BB: 45.2 BB
Hero (UTG): 113.6 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J
♥ A
♣
Hero raises to 4 BB,
UTG+1 calls 4 BB,
fold,
fold,
fold,
fold, BB calls 3 BB
Flop: (12.4 BB, 3 players) 5
♦ 6
♥ A
♠
BB checks,
Hero bets 7 BB,
UTG+1 calls 7 BB,
fold
Turn: (26.4 BB, 2 players) 4
♣
Hero checks,
UTG+1 bets 13 BB,
Hero calls 13 BB
River: (52.4 BB, 2 players) A
♥
Hero checks,
UTG+1 bets 25 BB,
Thakns for adviced!
Hello there Mcclares, thanks a lot for sharing your hand with us.
Now, let's go for the subject itself: this is a full ring table, and as @gustav197poker said, players are too much polarized: there are tons of NITs and Whales around with very non-sense unbalanced preflop and postflop ranges.
However, having only this information it doesn't help us at all: for example, the player in the UTG+1 called preflop, but you have to know how many hands played with him/her and what is the Call Open % of this Villain (How many times in % form does Villain cold calls UTG+1 vs MP).
I say right off the bat that this Villain seems the standard Tight Passive: VPIP 19, PFR 14 and AF 2. However this information doesn't help us either. I believe that when this player calls, it is way too strong, because there are 5 players left to act!
Some TAGs will widen their ranges in spots like this because there is a recreational player sitting in the Big Blind and other in the Small Blind position, as you described SB had 92.6 blinds ES, and BB had 45.2 blinds ES.
But when I say "widen", I mean that it is going to call you with more pocket pairs than usual and overall, strong hands.
What a Passive Tight is calling preflop from UTG+1?
It is way too strong and we don't expect here, in a high frequency, that UTG+1 to call with some random aces, such as A9, or AT, even AJ is way too weak. Now this is the point of the hand: we have 12 combos of AJo preflop and this is a Full Ring table. If we begin to open all of the 12 combos of AJo preflop we are just getting way too loose, because AJ will not play very good out of position, specially when a Passive Tight player calls you IP.
So, UTG+1 is calling here with AQ, AK, sometimes KQ, KJ, although they are very easy folds from EP after somebody raises, and it will call you, maybe, with all of the pocket pairs.
What happens is that the player with a broken stack enter the pot, and maybe that was the plan of UTG+1 and we go to a 3-way pot:
The Flop:
Remember that you've opened 4x preflop which is a pretty fair size. Remember that both UTG+1 and BB called and the flop is a little bit bigger than a single raised pot.
Considering that we play most of times with 100 blinds of effective stack, and on the flop the pot is 12.4, this means that most of times here we already invested 12% of our stack already on the flop and if we go for larger sizings here the pot will be way to big on the turn and we are going to have serious problems to leave some hands, when we hit them, such as:
A) TPGK, TP2K and TPTK
B) Two Pair, or Top Two Pair
C) Trips
So, you bet a little more than 1/2 pot here, being out of position with 100% of our range.
What can happen here is very simple, UTG+1 and BB can check-raise you here, representing A5, A6 (BB's range), 55, 66 and maybe a trap, AA, AQ, AK (UTG+1's range).
Yes, some players can call here with AA knowing that the fishes in the blinds could Squeeze or Call and make a lot of errors postflop.
There is a good chance that UTG+1 doesn't even have any Ax, because of the removal, but this is micro-stakes and definitely,
everything is possible.
Other hands that could be check-raising for bluff here are 87, 43, 32, on BB's range, and when BB does it raise you on the flop you are in a very tough situation.
Both betting 1/3 here and checking are okay lines, because we are not really sure about the value of TP3K on a flop like this.
The Turn
BB folds and the 4c completes a sequence that almost never UTG+1 will have. You check and UTG+1 bets, and now this is a very hard call for us: there aren't too many bluffs on UTG+1's ranges right now, no flush draw, this sequence doesn't connect to the range that calls from that position, so it lasts pure air bluffs, which a passive tag will have none, and the value hands, that are mostly sets with pocket pairs, such as 55, 66, 44 and in a very low frequency, AA. Yup, it sucks but it will happen in a low frequency ratio.
Besides Villain can show here AQ and AK and depending how much it calls preflop some A4s, A5s, that has two pair now. (we don't know the stat Call Open).
So, we see that
UTG+1 doesn't have many bluffs (or any bluffs!) and the hands that UTG+1 bets here are mostly beating our range: very hard to believe that a TAG player would be betting here some crazy KK, QQ, TT, 99, it doesn't happen, unless this is a whale one, because the Ace in the Flop connects too strong with Hero/UTG's range which can have AK, AQ, AJ, and even AA, so it doesn't make sense for those hands to bet turn, they should be checking giving they have a lot of showdown value and UTG could be "
bluffing" here in a low frequency some JJ, for example, trying to represent the Ace on the flop. (When you bet 1/2 pot flop you are representing mostly you Ax range).
What is our overall plan here when we do call a 1/2 pot bet on the turn? To continue paying on which rivers? When it comes another ace are we going for stacks? When it comes a King are we going? When it comes a Jack and we complete two pair are we going for stacks?
And all of the other rivers that will suck for us, if UTG+1 bets are we really calling because "our hand is still too strong and we have
odds"..??
The River Deception
It seems that this river is fantastic, however, when UTG+1 sends 1/2 pot again, instead of checking its range, we should be folding here! Very easy fold, this is a mistake that almost 95% of the players commit at lower limits (from 2 NLHE to 200 NLHE),
"because now I have a trips, no way I am gonna fold this, etc, etc, etc"
It seems a very easy call right? we have to pay only 25 blinds for a pot of over 102 blinds, so the math is easy, we only need to be right here 1 out of 4 times.
The
pot odds are very clear: we have odds here if we believe that UTG+1 has on its range more than 25% of bluffs on a river like this, and then you gotta make your homework of counting the combos you believe UTG+1 get on a river like this and see:
If you believe that UTG+1 has more than 25% of bluffs (because of the rake UTG+1 needs to have at least 28% of bluffs here), your call is breakeven.
We never raise this river because is the real big mistake of all:
UTG+1 can plays close to perfection and folds all of its bluffs and second hands, even KK, QQ and only continue paying with hands that have you beat such as Sets and Two Pair and AQ and AK.
Players at the micros are simply not bluffing enough on rivers like this to make our call profitable, so it is a very easy fold.
Until the river we have invested only 24 blinds. Now we have to invest more 25 for a pot that we know that once in a while, Passive TAG will show some KK.
Regards;
Carlos 'Aballinamion'
Barbosa
