$5 NLHE Full Ring: It looks stupid, but maybe I should fold this river??

[Tricky123bet]

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 11.93, PFR: 9.55, 3Bet Preflop: 3.42, hands: 935)
MP: 180.4 BB
MP+1: 112.4 BB (VPIP: 10.98, PFR: 7.32, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 84)
MP+2: 40 BB (VPIP: 27.54, PFR: 21.74, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 72)
CO: 118 BB (VPIP: 57.69, PFR: 9.62, 3Bet Preflop: 10.71, Hands: 55)
BTN: 35.4 BB (VPIP: 8.82, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 104)
SB: 103.4 BB (VPIP: 15.84, PFR: 11.88, 3Bet Preflop: 6.82, Hands: 2,405)
Hero (BB): 188.4 BB
UTG: 50 BB (VPIP: 17.45, PFR: 12.75, 3Bet Preflop: 3.80, Hands: 517)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K<font color='black'>♠</font> 5<font color='black'>♣</font>

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero checks

Flop: (2.4 BB, 2 players) T<font color='red'>♦</font> 3<font color='red'>♥</font> 6<font color='black'>♣</font>
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (2.4 BB, 2 players) 2<font color='black'>♠</font>
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (2.4 BB, 2 players) 4<font color='red'>♦</font>
Hero bets 2 BB, CO raises to 117 BB and is all-in, Hero ??

Fold the river? What?

No, I'm serious, but tell me why I think bet-folding with the second-nut straight could be the right play, and give your reasoning behind why that might be right.

 

[No1eJoker]

Very interesting hand, the opponent does not have flush, not have full, only he can have a high straight than yours if he has 5 7, but I think probably he is not have and he has a straight like you 2-6! Did you call??

 

[Tricky123bet]

Hmm, don't know why postflop cards show up like that. Makes it very hard to read out the board.

Board is Td 3h 6c 2s 4d to make it easier for you.

 

[Diegol]

Call every day twice the sundays, you are beat by just 12 combos of 5 7 and winning against all his bluffs and he could have any hand in the deck

 

[froggeedogs]

call with this hand, most he has is two pair in my opinion. how did it turn out?

 

[braveslice]

Rake is around 5% so even if you chop you lose more than win by calling. He has max 12 combos 57, let say two sets 6 combos, I think this is a fold. Not sure though, don't you have any post flop stats?

 

[Tricky123bet]

Rake is around 5% so even if you chop you lose more than win by calling. He has max 12 combos 57, let say two sets 6 combos, I think this is a fold. Not sure though, don't you have any post flop stats?

Exactly. That's what I discovered when I looked at the hand afterwards. Rake is something that you seldom have to consider, but in this case it has a huge impact.

He ended up having A5, so we chopped, but the rake taken from the pot made me lose 8c on the river call.
He has a vpip of over 50, and a low pfr, so it's pretty safe to assume he is a fish. So I bet to get value from lots of top/second pair hands and two pair combos he could have. When he shoves his entire stack into such a small pot I expect him to have a 5 in his hand almost always, thinking "oh, I have a straight, let's ship it in". His stats indicate that 57o is definitely in his limping range (I had seen him do a lot of limping in LP as well as EP, even over the pretty small sample of hands). When it comes to sets, I think he could have at most 12 sets with 22-44 and 66 (not TT, I think that would raise preflop), since fish like to slowplay sets all the way, meaning they can check all streets, hoping their opponent will bet so they can make a big raise. But would they raise all-in with sets OTR? I am putting at most 4 combos of sets into that range. And could fish do this with two pair? I don't think so at least.
So I will lose my stack to 57 more often than I will stack sets. And the most common in between case when we chop the pot, which actually ends up losing me money due to rake, will make calling a -$EV play with the second nut straight.
Not often these spots happen. But it's something to consider, and it's indeed one of the most interesting hands I've analyzed lately.

 

[Aces2w1n]

This opponent u call... cuz hes dumb enough to have bluffs or be tlting bad.

 

[Tricky123bet]

This opponent u call... cuz hes dumb enough to have bluffs or be tlting bad.

He is a passive fish though, so I would say it's rare that he would actually ever bluff. Two pair is possible, but I think he is way more likely to call those. But with a set or 5x hands a passive fish doesn't know what the right play is and just says "lulz, I have a straight, all-in".
It's a close spot imo.