$5 NLHE Full Ring: Did I calculated the odds right?

OmarRD7

OmarRD7

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Hi there! Above is my hand. I think I calculated in the flop and Turn my flush odds properly, even when it was a huge pot.

So, I need your help to understand if my math are good or wrong. Also I want to know if shoving all in the flop maybe would made to the V fold and win NSD.

Please let me know your thoughts!
 
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c0rnBr34d

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Any reads on V? I would open 5x over two limpers. Depending on V stats I can call or fold to the 3 bet, if we were suited I think it's more of auto-defend. Flop is fine if we think he's wide. We need about 28% equity to call and we have that against any hand he has here even KK+, AK, and a made flush. The only weird thing is that we would probably never jam a flush here on the flop if we had it so I think our semi bluff would get more action than we like on the flop. We may min raise and jam turn or x and jam turn if we had a flush already. Problem is, we only have a 1/4 pot bet left on top of the turn bet so we have no fold equity and no made hand. With the added straight draw and the smaller turn bet I think we have to call down here. We need about 26% equity to continue on the turn and now the top of Vs range has us slightly on the wrong side of that but we are only really making a big mistake against a made flush by calling. I'm guessing V had something like AxQs and we got stacked. Not many great options with this run out and these stack depths though. To re-cap, I like a slightly larger open, we can fold some percentage to the 3 bet based on V stats. We can jam flop some percentage of the time here too but it just feels face up and fishy as we will get called by a lot of hands that beat us and fold out the air hands that we want him to continue to bet. So if we call pre and dont jam flop then I think the turn call is fine and I don't think we are deep enough to fold river after hitting the Ace.
 
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fundiver199

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Preflop
Larger open raise against 2 limpers. My standard is 5,5BB, and 5BB is the minimum. I would usually fold to the 3-bet, but it depends on Villain reads. The call in position is not terrible but probably slightly -EV against most opponents.

Flop
You definitely can not fold, but with this SPR calling with a draw will create rather awkward turn situations, unless you hit. I think, its easier and probably also slightly more profitable to simply ship it in and allow him the chance to make a folding mistake. It also makes sure, you get paid, when you get there, which can be an issue on a 4-flush board. Is he really gonna love stacking off, unless he have like exactly Qs? Probably not.

Turn
I guess, this is, what your question was mostly about, and no I dont think, you have the correct odds to continue, unless you think, you are sometimes ahead. Which seem very optimistic. Even if you assume, you will always get paid on the river, you need around 20% equity, which you probably dont quite have. If he has a flush, you only have 7 outs, if he has KK, you only have 8 outs, and you are gonna pay, if 2s hits. So as played this is pretty close, but I prefer a fold.

River
I think, this is also a fold. You are getting a good price, but he is never bluffing for that price, and you dont beat any value. You were trying to make a flush not top pair. Being unable to fold now is a further reason, why its better to ship it in on the flop. It protects you from making mistakes later.
 
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OmarRD7

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Any reads on V? I would open 5x over two limpers. Depending on V stats I can call or fold to the 3 bet, if we were suited I think it's more of auto-defend. Flop is fine if we think he's wide. We need about 28% equity to call and we have that against any hand he has here even KK+, AK, and a made flush. The only weird thing is that we would probably never jam a flush here on the flop if we had it so I think our semi bluff would get more action than we like on the flop. We may min raise and jam turn or x and jam turn if we had a flush already. Problem is, we only have a 1/4 pot bet left on top of the turn bet so we have no fold equity and no made hand. With the added straight draw and the smaller turn bet I think we have to call down here. We need about 26% equity to continue on the turn and now the top of Vs range has us slightly on the wrong side of that but we are only really making a big mistake against a made flush by calling. I'm guessing V had something like AxQs and we got stacked. Not many great options with this run out and these stack depths though. To re-cap, I like a slightly larger open, we can fold some percentage to the 3 bet based on V stats. We can jam flop some percentage of the time here too but it just feels face up and fishy as we will get called by a lot of hands that beat us and fold out the air hands that we want him to continue to bet. So if we call pre and dont jam flop then I think the turn call is fine and I don't think we are deep enough to fold river after hitting the Ace.

Preflop
Larger open raise against 2 limpers. My standard is 5,5BB, and 5BB is the minimum. I would usually fold to the 3-bet, but it depends on Villain reads. The call in position is not terrible but probably slightly -EV against most opponents.

Flop
You definitely can not fold, but with this SPR calling with a draw will create rather awkward turn situations, unless you hit. I think, its easier and probably also slightly more profitable to simply ship it in and allow him the chance to make a folding mistake. It also makes sure, you get paid, when you get there, which can be an issue on a 4-flush board. Is he really gonna love stacking off, unless he have like exactly Qs? Probably not.

Turn
I guess, this is, what your question was mostly about, and no I dont think, you have the correct odds to continue, unless you think, you are sometimes ahead. Which seem very optimistic. Even if you assume, you will always get paid on the river, you need around 20% equity, which you probably dont quite have. If he has a flush, you only have 7 outs, if he has KK, you only have 8 outs, and you are gonna pay, if 2s hits. So as played this is pretty close, but I prefer a fold.

River
I think, this is also a fold. You are getting a good price, but he is never bluffing for that price, and you dont beat any value. You were trying to make a flush not top pair. Being unable to fold now is a further reason, why its better to ship it in on the flop. It protects you from making mistakes later.


Thanks, guys! Those were my thought after review this hand deeply! I must raise in the flop. That would give me some strong appearance and fold equity vs the V, and maybe a free card in the Turn if he would X. Also, Call the Turn that was a luck testing play. I should fold or jam (preferably if I would Raise in the Flop but I did not). And the River Call was a money killer to me!

I'm really grateful for your time!
 
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fundiver199

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I must raise in the flop. That would give me some strong appearance and fold equity vs the V, and maybe a free card in the Turn if he would X.

After his C-bet there was only a pot sized bet left, so the only raise size, that makes sense, is to move all in.
 
OmarRD7

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After his C-bet there was only a pot sized bet left, so the only raise size, that makes sense, is to move all in.
Thanks, bro. It's true. Shove after his CBET would make him fold due to a flushed flop and my range calling 3bet give me a AQs appearance. I had to use it in my favor.

Thanks for your great advice
 
Aballinamion

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https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/824zp8umX

Hi there! Above is my hand. I think I calculated in the flop and Turn my flush odds properly, even when it was a huge pot.

So, I need your help to understand if my math are good or wrong. Also I want to know if shoving all in the flop maybe would made to the V fold and win NSD.

Please let me know your thoughts!

Hello OmarRD7, thank you very much for sharing with us!
Well dear mate, before saying anything about calculating pot odds, let's look into the overall scenario of the hand:
Two limpers behind and you raise for 4 blinds, okay? Then it comes the action to the Big Blind player who 3-bets to 3x: here you gotta really ask if you have odds to be calling down this 3-bet.
Because it is quite diferent when you raise preflop for example, to 3 blinds, and get a 3-bet of 9 blinds: The scenario of pot odds is completely different here, you already invested 4 blinds into the pot and have to pay more 20 blinds!
Unless the Big Blind player is the real squeezor preflop, and even so you gotta consider very much before calling down polarized bets like this with dominated hands such as AJ, AT, A9, KQ, KJ, etc.
I believe that players at the micros are very much polarized on their bets and when this guy goes for this sizing he has you already. If we had AJs, perhaps we would have the proper pot odds not only to be calling preflop, but jamming, since there are already a very interesting pot.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
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c0rnBr34d

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Turn
I guess, this is, what your question was mostly about, and no I dont think, you have the correct odds to continue, unless you think, you are sometimes ahead. Which seem very optimistic. Even if you assume, you will always get paid on the river, you need around 20% equity, which you probably dont quite have. If he has a flush, you only have 7 outs, if he has KK, you only have 8 outs, and you are gonna pay, if 2s hits. So as played this is pretty close, but I prefer a fold.

River
I think, this is also a fold. You are getting a good price, but he is never bluffing for that price, and you dont beat any value. You were trying to make a flush not top pair. Being unable to fold now is a further reason, why its better to ship it in on the flop. It protects you from making mistakes later.
fundiver, how are you coming up with the 20% number on the turn? The way I see it our $1.65 represents 26% of the pot so we need 26% equity which is even worse of a spot to be in. But if we look at hands in V's likely range here it's fairly close equity wise against almost everything except a made flush so I don't think calling or folding is too bad but it's clearly too late to shove.

vs AK we have 24% (but a good portion of this equity is chops)
vs KQ we have 33%
vs KxQs we have 31%
vs AA we have 24% (chop issues again)
vs KK we have 25%
vs QQs we have 32%
vs AQs we have 26% (chops issues again)
vs flush we have 15% (A and K blocked so combos limited in 3b pot)

So if we are using your threshold of 20% equity needed I don't see how we are ever folding turn unless we are ranging him with KK+, AK only. If we start to add KQ and QQs (which I think is reasonable) then this call is close but I don't think its bad. And this is all without any spew against a passive line.

Once we call turn I just think folding river here requires more reads than OP has provided and would be a huge mistake vs an unknown. We only need to be good 16% of the time. So if he jams his KQ here OOP then that's enough combos we beat to offset all his value and we have to call.
 
OmarRD7

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Hello OmarRD7, thank you very much for sharing with us!
Well dear mate, before saying anything about calculating pot odds, let's look into the overall scenario of the hand:
Two limpers behind and you raise for 4 blinds, okay? Then it comes the action to the Big Blind player who 3-bets to 3x: here you gotta really ask if you have odds to be calling down this 3-bet.
Because it is quite diferent when you raise preflop for example, to 3 blinds, and get a 3-bet of 9 blinds: The scenario of pot odds is completely different here, you already invested 4 blinds into the pot and have to pay more 20 blinds!
Unless the Big Blind player is the real squeezor preflop, and even so you gotta consider very much before calling down polarized bets like this with dominated hands such as AJ, AT, A9, KQ, KJ, etc.
I believe that players at the micros are very much polarized on their bets and when this guy goes for this sizing he has you already. If we had AJs, perhaps we would have the proper pot odds not only to be calling preflop, but jamming, since there are already a very interesting pot.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
My friend! Always a good advice!

So, what you're saying is, unless this V were so much squeezer, better would be fold, right?

AJo wasn't enough to call 20 BB more, even IP. I thought it was.

Also, when you said jamming with AJs, you mean a 4bet shove in preflop? Or jamming in the flop?
 
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fundiver199

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fundiver, how are you coming up with the 20% number on the turn? The way I see it our $1.65 represents 26% of the pot so we need 26% equity which is even worse of a spot to be in. But if we look at hands in V's likely range here it's fairly close equity wise against almost everything except a made flush so I don't think calling or folding is too bad but it's clearly too late to shove.

vs AK we have 24% (but a good portion of this equity is chops)
vs KQ we have 33%
vs KxQs we have 31%
vs AA we have 24% (chop issues again)
vs KK we have 25%
vs QQs we have 32%
vs AQs we have 26% (chops issues again)
vs flush we have 15% (A and K blocked so combos limited in 3b pot)

So if we are using your threshold of 20% equity needed I don't see how we are ever folding turn unless we are ranging him with KK+, AK only. If we start to add KQ and QQs (which I think is reasonable) then this call is close but I don't think its bad. And this is all without any spew against a passive line.


Once we call turn I just think folding river here requires more reads than OP has provided and would be a huge mistake vs an unknown. We only need to be good 16% of the time. So if he jams his KQ here OOP then that's enough combos we beat to offset all his value and we have to call.

I missed the fact, hero had a gutshot to a wheel. That does indeed make the turn a call, even though it will often just result in a chopped pot against AK or AA. I still prefer to just ship the flop though. And I also prefer folding to the 3-bet.

So in reality the turn decision is irrelevant, because the earlier streets were not played in an optimal way. This is something, you see in a lot of hand reviews. People have questions about the turn or river, but the more important decisions were actually those preflop or on the flop.

In this hand just fold to the 3-bet and take that 4BB loss. It does a lot of things, which are great for our overall game. If we are 4-tabling, it allows us to focus on hands on other tables, where hopefully we are involved with fish and with initiative.

If we call this 3-bet with a hand like AJ, we are per definition bluff catching. This flop was pretty easy, but much more often we flop a pair, and then we are still bluff catching. So we spend a lot of brain power trying to figure out, if we should call one street, two streets or maybe all the way down. And at best its very marginally profitable.

It also increase our variance, and we pay more rake. So there are so many benefits to just making a simple and definitive decision early on by pressing that "fold" button, when someone starts to fight back at us. The same also goes for being raised on the flop or turn.

And we dont need to worry about getting exploited at 5NL or even at 25NL. The player pool on pokerstars is just so huge these days, that even HUD-users dont have enough data to figure out, if you are slightly overfolding is certain spots. So just focus on the fish and get out most of the time, when someone starts to fight back like this. Usually it is, just what it looks like. His range in this spot is probably AA, KK and AK, and that is pretty much it.
 
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Aballinamion

Aballinamion

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My friend! Always a good advice!

So, what you're saying is, unless this V were so much squeezer, better would be fold, right?

AJo wasn't enough to call 20 BB more, even IP. I thought it was.

Also, when you said jamming with AJs, you mean a 4bet shove in preflop? Or jamming in the flop?

Yes, unless you have information that V is 3-betting/Squeezing over the top, a fold seems more adequate.
Actually, there where not an increase of 20 blinds, I made a calculation mistake because I thought this was 2 NLHE, even so the increase is for more 12 blinds, if I am not mistaken, because I suck at math.
When Villain 3-bets/Squeezes too much and put a polarized sizing like this preflop there is no reason to be 4-betting but going all-in once and for all and I believe the suited combos are way much better for this function.
When you call the shove OTF is also an option, since you are blocking AA and the nut flush.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
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