$5 NLHE Full Ring: Flopped a set, nit cbets

J

Jreece18

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888 Poker - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 46.2 BB (VPIP: 39.22, PFR: 1.96, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 51)
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 67.6 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
UTG+1: 60 BB (VPIP: 10.23, PFR: 7.95, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 89)
MP: 109.2 BB (VPIP: 10.67, PFR: 5.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 76)
Hero (MP+1): 100 BB
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.52, PFR: 10.31, 3Bet Preflop: 3.87, Hands: 982)
BTN: 40 BB (VPIP: 5.26, PFR: 5.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 38)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 2:heart: 2:spade:

fold, UTG+1 raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (10.4 BB, 3 players) 2:club: 6:diamond: 3:club:
UTG+1 bets 7.8 BB, Hero ???

Am I right to call here?
 
DrazaFFT

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Boy its been a while since i tried to discuss hands so go easy on me ;)

ill try to make it short, his open is screaming TT+ AKs or tighter (love having position awareness stat too, it shows me does he widen up later or not), anyway id raise him here, with 60bb he is either bad or mid stacker both scenarios would jam overpair or 2overs+FD with the difference where bad player would stack off even worse there (good midstacker stackin overpair or 2 overs +fd is ok move there btw), if Co setmined and hit set too, well thats life but point is if there is a place to get paid for your sets, its 2nl and 5nl, so id say raise and call if CO folds if you raise and co jams, then its bit difficult and possible behind but still hard not to stack off
 
Diegol

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Boy its been a while since i tried to discuss hands so go easy on me ;)

ill try to make it short, his open is screaming TT+ AKs or tighter (love having position awareness stat too, it shows me does he widen up later or not), anyway id raise him here, with 60bb he is either bad or mid stacker both scenarios would jam overpair or 2overs+FD with the difference where bad player would stack off even worse there (good midstacker stackin overpair or 2 overs +fd is ok move there btw), if Co setmined and hit set too, well thats life but point is if there is a place to get paid for your sets, its 2nl and 5nl, so id say raise and call if CO folds if you raise and co jams, then its bit difficult and possible behind but still hard not to stack off
Exactly what he say, you are in a great spot becouse he hardly will put you in that hand and all he want is to get value of his hand,what i like to do here is check call check call and jam the river, if he had an overpair he will pay and if he had lets say AK, not that much people do the 3rd barrel
 
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Jreece18

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Feel like I'm slightly too passive postflop atm. Thanks
 
Q

QA77

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Its fine to call or raise here. Sometimes you are up against a big hand and lose value by caling and letting a club or 4 card straight on board. I would lean towards caling against an aggressive player and raising against tight players.
 
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braveslice

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I agree with with @DrazaFFT, and in generalization with @QA77 with the note that on very dry board better get it in always.

Calling 22 against 60big blinds I probably would not do from your position, so little money behind. I guess it’s not a mistake, but I would guess break even spot.
 
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braveslice

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I did mean non dry, Wet, in above. Sry.
 
IPlay

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Pretty easy flop raise, too many turns are going to scare off villain and you can make villain think you have a mid PP like 88-1010. Which, while raising these hands here are not great I think enough players do it at this stake that you are going to stack his premiums almost always.
 
Beanfacekilla

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I guess you can raise to around 20-25 BB here on the flop. But we are assuming this dude is such a nit that he won't cbet bluff? Like what are we worried about here? That he has a flush draw? Bad cards are any 4, any 5, and any club. That's only what 17 cards out of 47 unseen cards?


I don't mind raising here, only because of the dude in CO though. If it were HU, I might just flat. Heck I might even flat even with CO there. However, I think raising is probably better given the stakes.... I would assume people call too much. Just don't blow him out of the hand with some absurd raise...
 
Beanfacekilla

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Calling 22 against 60big blinds I probably would not do from your position, so little money behind. I guess it’s not a mistake, but I would guess break even spot.

It's a 3 BB raise. He also has position. That's 19:1 implied odds, for a hand that flops a set roughly 1 in 8 times. How is this not +EV? Especially if most in this thread are saying PFR is a super nit, raise flop cause he has such a strong range, etc. It sounds like a recipe for a great spot to setmine. We have position, and a read by OP and stats that dude is super nit right?

If I thought the PFR literally had over pairs and overs with FD that much, and he isn't folding that range, and he just goes broke post, why wouldn't we setmine here? More than enough IO in my opinion.
 
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braveslice

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, why wouldn't we setmine here? More than enough IO in my opinion.

The odds are there, but position is MP+1, 4 players left to raise. I mean yes if yo have good chances to see the flop then why not.
 
Beanfacekilla

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The odds are there, but position is MP+1, 4 players left to raise. I mean yes if yo have good chances to see the flop then why not.

It is $5 NL? These people aren't 3b and 4b like wizards pre are they?
 
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braveslice

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You are right, I was too zoom 6max zoom orientated, this table probably is more passive.

I just remember that in regular 2NL (I guess 5NL too) people liked (2 years ago?) to raise small a lot with very bad hands like A5s and similar, to make pot larger when they hit their flush. But given the stats of villains this is not the case here.

I don't have database, but set mining can't be super profitable? Profitable yes. So if we cut 40% of starting stack that might do quite bad.
 
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O

oops944

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Simply put it's more like a win-win for me

I'd freaking raise BB call and see what he or she has. This isn't the most unluckiest hand. I'm pretty sure I'd get a fold and celebrate or win the pot and celebrate. Simply put it's more like a win-win for me :)
 
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braveslice

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I don't have database, but set mining can't be super profitable? Profitable yes. So if we cut 40% of starting stack that might do quite bad.

Database says it's 3 times more profitable to call small stacks than full stacks in 5NL zoom 6max. Only 25 hands, but still...
 
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braveslice

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Against UTG open call from MP 6max, closest I got to the situation here.
 
Trillian

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Shouldn't we play aggressive and make the turn card more expensive on such a wet board?
 
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JKo2theQQ

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This looks like a really good spot for you. The villain leading out on the flop shouldn't concern you much. With a villain this tight, it's highly unlikely he got any piece of the flop. He would lead out with all pairs and would probably lead with all big aces assuming you missed the flop as well. Even with the clubs on the flop we are never folding or checking (if it's checked to us). Unfortunately, the villain is super tight so it might be hard to get paid off. The real hope here is that he has something like AA-99. Such a tight player likely shuts down to much resistance with hands like AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ unless he holds 2 clubs. Calling may even be a little better than raising here. If a brick comes on the turn, he might fire again thinking you are drawing. However, both calling and raising fine.
 
No1eJoker

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Maybe is better call and see the turn he probably waits for flush , if come clubs you are in critical situation, he maybe have a flush!!
 
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SafetyMark

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Why is it so unreasonable for him to have A4cc or even A5cc here?
Isn't that exactly the play he'd make on this flop?

Isn't the only other reasonable thought is overpair to make the flush draw pay? If he's really bad enough to cbet the 2 overs FD, even nutted, he's now got 8 outs that don't kill on the turn.

So if the range is A4cc, A5cc, 88-AAxc, AXcc, 66 (which is wider than I'd put him on) what are you worried about? Literally exactly one of those combos has you beat right now, make the rest of them pay either for making a bad call to a 2 outer or non-kill 8 outs. Get it in.
 
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