$5 NLHE 6-max: Wath is his X rangue F?

[freddydr87]

First off all i have to say that i have played this hand the worse possivel way,not for excuse my self but that month awy from tables have make me louse the abilitie to make good reads on vilains rangues and spetially to louse the abilitie to make good desitions at table.
Vilain seems to be a regular(fold a lot on 3bet but 4bet and 5bet alot off his premiuns). he has:
VPIP 23 PFR 20 3bet 6.5 Cbet 43 in 391 hands(thouse are the most important ones)
I saw him calling a 4bet shove with JJ so he like to stack him self louse,i could have 4bet jam this hand and this analisis wouldnt have excisted.
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/6qKRXZb
My biguest doud heare is wath is he checking on this flop? he has an 43% cbet so he ussually dont cbet much.
I guess his 3bet rangue is more or less like this.

In this flop he hasnt inpact much,only have Top Set(JJ) some Tpair and some overpair,his rangue is full off A high hands and pokect pairs Bellow.
When i mark all hands with some streng(Set,Overpair,Tpair a PP below) it is 44% off the 3bet rangue,is more or less wath he usually Cbets so i guess he is Cbetting all and cheking his Ahigh hands wich are a 39% off his rangue(i kew he is a regular but i never though not even once that he could be valancing his rangue,i though that 45% cbet was a weakness i could exploit)

But when he call on the flop now i have to start figuring out wath he x/calls me with, Tset is a very good hand to do so because he is blocking all possibles tpairs i could have,he might do it with AA or KK iff he thinks im very agro and wanths to trap me and he could x/call with AK and AQ(he has less combos off this since im bloquing them) he has 2 overs and backdoor strait.

But heare comes the biguest mistake the fishy play, why going all in heare? so bad muve he only will call me with AA,KK and the set off JJ and would fold all his overcards,i should have x behind,his overcards didnt have to much equity.

He would have bet me river,probably not shove since he had to make a big overbet but he could do so and i had a very hard call river,but maibe he bets small and i would have save a lot off BB and that is the key in cash,minimize louses and maximize incomings.
Even iff he ever call me with Tpair im way behind him.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

If you see he calls 4 bets with JJ that is more motivation for you to 4 bet here. You want him to call with JJ here for all the times he doesn't flop a set. Also you are raising from the BTN so your range should be wide and he should be 3 betting wide as a result. Also your 4 bet doesn't need to be a jam. You're both plenty deep. You can 4 bet to $1.25 in position and if he flats that further defines his range. If he 5 bets then it'll be a jam and we can eval vs his stats if we want to stack off or make a tight fold.

Second point, why are we giving him a 10% 3B range when his actual stat is 6.5%? Just curious about this estimation. I guess it could stand to reason that vs an UTG raise he would 3B smaller than 6.5% and against a BTN raise use a larger range but it can be hard to quantify exactly.

Third point is bet sizing and it's not just the turn. In a 3 bet pot after he checks I really don't like Hero's bet sizing. I would be looking at his fold to flop / turn / river stats and making a MUCH smaller bet. Somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 pot depending on how sticky V is. We have position and a monster, there are no draws to charge on this dry board so we are usually way ahead or way behind here. Since it's already a 3 bet pot and we aren't positive which category we are in I think the general consensus here is to bet small. We don't want him to fold his AK, AQ, TT, by blasting flop this large. We also don't want to build a huge pot against his AA, KK, JJ. If we bet about $.40 on the flop then $1.20 OTT and get called twice we can set ourselves up to lose the min. If he leads river after that action we might be able to get away depending on stats / reads. And if he checks river our value bet would be amazingly thin. Pretty much only AJ can call 3 streets and lose. But we have to also think that he is cbetting AJ at some frequency so we can even count all of the AJ combos. Realistically he should be folding AJ to 3 barrels here anyways so what hands can we bet and get called by that we beat as there were no flush or straight draws on the flop that we could have as bluffs that missed by the river. I think we can check back this river a fair amount if it plays out that way.

I'd be curious to see what our checking frequency with QQ is on the river with this run out if anyone has a solver they can run it through. After all, it is only one pair and we are in a 3 bet pot. Also curious to see what our calling frequency is if V all of the sudden leads river.