$5 NLHE 6-max: Wath did he checks?

freddydr87

freddydr87

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This one i very interesting
Vilain has VPIP(30) PFR(27) 3bet(16) and Cbet(42)(i didnt luck that one in real time wile playing the hand big mistake)
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/5qHLUBS
So vilain is a very louse player,but not very agro, he continue 42%,on tur 33 and in river 99,that means that he bets all he hits on flop,on turn he bets with the stronguest ones and iff he bets turn he will do so river. But this was not the case,it was the oposit. When i start studiying the hand i was wonthering, wath does he checks? them i see his stats and realise that he bets all made hads(more or less) and probably some strong draws.
So i filter all hands that hit something in that board and guees wath, it was around his 42 cbet.
37PYW.png

So he checks all the rest off garbage hands he has lesf in his rangue(some off them still with some equity and equity is money that belongs to you)
37PYV.png

This is very strait foward as it is a vilain from a micro stage,regular from other stakes will be mixing up his bet and check in a way no one cant exploit them when they check.
Also only value hand he could be checking there is TT,with a top set is harther to stract value since is hard for my rangue to have something to call with(only the flushdraws and some poket pair below.
So when i bet him on turn i spect him to be folding a lot but the hands that in some way have impruve,and that is his backdoors flushdraws and i also spet him to call with his OESD.
37PYY.png

In the river it was beater or to x/call trying to get value from some garbage he could still have or bet 1/3 or 1/4 and fold to the raise,that way u can starct value from lets say he x/c with a GS and now has a Tpair Q, and you can fold because he will be raising only the backoor flushes he caugh on river. Iff he raise me with his miss OESD i have a lucrative call,i have 20,4 pot odds and i have 22% equity(iff he bluffes with his A9s). But honestly i cant see him,or almost anyone bluffing thouse hands in that spot.
37PYX.png

I guees i need to reinstall my ACR because my fold button isnt working.
But i wanth to know wath do you guis will think he had at the moment he checks the flop(remenber he dont have an standart cbet off 60 to 70%)
 
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1player2

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Hello,

I would have taken a similar line. Once you miss the flush and get 3 bet jammed on after the river card you are very unlikely to have the winner. Trying to find a fold with top top would be difficult but he was calling the turn bet for a reason. Good luck
 
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300HPGOD

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With villain being a frequent 3 bettor based on stats a call here is just fine. I usually would not like to see a 3 bet from my opponent in these spots where I am out of position but since they do it so much I would not be as scared of it and would leave their range more open than I would a normal 3 bettor.

On the flop I would be fist pumping when villain checks behind. Yes we could hope for a bet and then check raise them with our hand but I never mind seeing a card for free when I am drawing. On the turn I dont think I would lead out, I think I lean towards check calling here and just letting whatever villain has stay in the hand and potentially bluff at it. That is a passive line for sure but I am not scared of their range yet. I would think a pair that hit the board would have bet the flop with the two spades out there and the connectivity and I dont believe any pair JJ+ would check behind there either. The river is or course an interesting card as most rivers are since it gives us top pair top kicker but also completes a diamond draw which is possible since I am putting villain on a fairly wide range here. I would definitely bet as you did here but I would never be betting 3/4ths pot. Villain is only going to call that sizing (or raise) with stuff that beats you. As I mentioned before, villain has done nothing to show me that they have any strength here so I want to make a bet that they could call (we arent bluffing here but are thinking we are betting for value). Since we are betting for value against perceived weakness we should be going small here, somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.05 give or take. As played when the villain jams I am folding here without much thought. Could be a bluff for sure but I dont like it that now all the sudden they wake up right when the flush completes and if I was not putting them on a pair during the flop and turn there must be something that was keeping them in the hand and the diamonds could be just that.
 
freddydr87

freddydr87

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With villain being a frequent 3 bettor based on stats a call here is just fine. I usually would not like to see a 3 bet from my opponent in these spots where I am out of position but since they do it so much I would not be as scared of it and would leave their range more open than I would a normal 3 bettor.

On the flop I would be fist pumping when villain checks behind. Yes we could hope for a bet and then check raise them with our hand but I never mind seeing a card for free when I am drawing. On the turn I dont think I would lead out, I think I lean towards check calling here and just letting whatever villain has stay in the hand and potentially bluff at it. That is a passive line for sure but I am not scared of their range yet. I would think a pair that hit the board would have bet the flop with the two spades out there and the connectivity and I dont believe any pair JJ+ would check behind there either. The river is or course an interesting card as most rivers are since it gives us top pair top kicker but also completes a diamond draw which is possible since I am putting villain on a fairly wide range here. I would definitely bet as you did here but I would never be betting 3/4ths pot. Villain is only going to call that sizing (or raise) with stuff that beats you. As I mentioned before, villain has done nothing to show me that they have any strength here so I want to make a bet that they could call (we arent bluffing here but are thinking we are betting for value). Since we are betting for value against perceived weakness we should be going small here, somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.05 give or take. As played when the villain jams I am folding here without much thought. Could be a bluff for sure but I dont like it that now all the sudden they wake up right when the flush completes and if I was not putting them on a pair during the flop and turn there must be something that was keeping them in the hand and the diamonds could be just that.
Very interesting analisis,thanks, i made several mistakes here,first didnt look at the cbet stat,wish would have tell me that he was checking all his garbage,and them on river i didnt realise that his garbage now has a lot off flushes he hit runner runner, iff i would have been 100% focused i would have beted 1/4 or 1/3 pot, as you say, max and folding to any raise.
 
freddydr87

freddydr87

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Hello,

I would have taken a similar line. Once you miss the flush and get 3 bet jammed on after the river card you are very unlikely to have the winner. Trying to find a fold with top top would be difficult but he was calling the turn bet for a reason. Good luck
Thanks man,yea thats right it was an easy fold river.
 
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