AK is unlikely as this guy 3bets whenever he can. KQ is possible. AQ for chop. Beaten by JT.

Yatahay Network - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): 195.4 BB
CO: 106 BB
BTN: 105.6 BB
SB: 130 BB
BB: 144 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♦ Q♣

Hero raises to 3.4 BB, CO calls 3.4 BB, BTN calls 3.4 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (11.6 BB, 3 players) A♣ Q♦ K♦
Hero bets 5.8 BB, CO raises to 11.6 BB, fold, Hero calls 5.8 BB

Turn: (34.8 BB, 2 players) 7♥
Hero checks, CO bets 17.4 BB, Hero calls 17.4 BB

River: (69.6 BB, 2 players) 5♠
Hero checks, CO bets 52.2 BB, Hero calls 52.2 BB

If this guy is aggressive and is capable of raising draws, I'd probably call this. He might do this with FDs, FDs + gutshot, AQ,JT, maybe even some weak gutshots like Jx/Tx

This is a rough spot as we have a strong hand but it is the bottom of the range of strong hands with it only beating KQ in the strong range. I would need to know more about villain and what their tendencies are post flop to really make a good educated guess as to what we should do here. I will go along with you that if they seem to like to 3 bet pre then they would be 3 betting AK. The problem I see is that depending on their post flop habits, they raised flop and we called, they bet turn and we called, why would they be bluffing the river when we raised pre and called two streets of action? I could always be wrong but I am would not be putting them on a flush draw that missed because I think they would think they are not getting enough folds. I will discount AK as mentioned earlier. We also have the Ace of diamonds which should negate some of their bluff range of two diamond hands. Not sure how many missed flush draws they would have that get to this point without the ace of diamonds. Without knowing tendencies of villain I feel like this is a mid level ace hand (A10 or AJ in particular) that they are turning into a bluff, KQ, or J10. I lean towards calling this hand because I think if they had the nuts by the turn they would have bet slightly bigger on the turn to be able to pot sized shove on the river. Maybe I am giving them to much thinking credit and villain wasnt thinking about that. I am going call here and really hoping that it is not J10 that they have.

Originally Posted by 300HPGOD

This is a rough spot

Absolutely agree. I dont see, which hands we lose to, other than JT, since both AK and QQ+ would usually 3-bet preflop. JT should only be JTs, if he is kind of reasonable. But if he is bad, there are 16 combos of JT, which is quite a lot, and this is the realistic worst case. It also seem like a crazy spot for him to be bluffing, since Hero can have all the sets and two pair on this board.

If we look at distribution, then we do have better hands than this to call with. Calling with a set or AK is better just for the case, we are wrong, and he actually did play AK this way. Its also better to not have Ad, since that would allow him to turn a suited rag ace like A2s-A4s into a bluff. So on balance I think, I would lean towards letting this hand go on the river.

Originally Posted by 300HPGOD

I lean towards calling this hand because I think if they had the nuts by the turn they would have bet slightly bigger on the turn to be able to pot sized shove on the river. Maybe I am giving them to much thinking credit and villain wasnt thinking about that.

I kind of tend to see it the other way around. If we look at Villains actions, then he min-raised on the flop, he bet 50% pot on the turn, and he bet 75% pot on the river. This almost certainly means, he was clicking the preset bet slicer buttons. And especially if he also did this fast, it is indicative of a multitabling regular, who has a very easy decision. And when do we have an easy decision in poker to bet or raise? When we have the nuts.

I do think, that if he was bluffing here, he would first of all want to go a little bigger on the earlier streets rather than almost begging hero to stick around. And then on the river he would need to stop and think about it a bit. Which might then also give him time to manually adjust his bet sizing and perhaps move all in for maximum fold equity. To me the 75% pot river bet looks like "how much can I get him to pay" rather than "what is the optimal bluffing size". But maybe I am overthinking this as well

Everything is fine except for the river. River is a c/f for that sizing. Guy is realizing you have a strong Ax, probably two pair or better and is hoping to max value. It's very unlikely KQ or AQ is betting for this sizing. And it's also unlikely he has a missed draw by just min raising the flop. That's more indicative on average of a strong hand at these stakes.

This is one of those rare hands where it's just not played well by your opponent and he's telling you he has a really strong hand. I'd just believe him that his range is nut heavy w/ almost no bluffs and maybe a couple of badly played chops.

Based on pf action, we should be safe ruling out better 2 pairs and sets. Leaving an optimistic KQ and the dreaded JT.

But again...this is $5 NL and we can't always be sure our villains are playing rational, solid poker.

I would probably curse/fold the river, but I don't think calling there is terrible either.

Originally Posted by fundiver199

I kind of tend to see it the other way around. If we look at Villains actions, then he min-raised on the flop, he bet 50% pot on the turn, and he bet 75% pot on the river. This almost certainly means, he was clicking the preset bet slicer buttons. And especially if he also did this fast, it is indicative of a multitabling regular, who has a very easy decision. And when do we have an easy decision in poker to bet or raise? When we have the nuts.

I do think, that if he was bluffing here, he would first of all want to go a little bigger on the earlier streets rather than almost begging hero to stick around. And then on the river he would need to stop and think about it a bit. Which might then also give him time to manually adjust his bet sizing and perhaps move all in for maximum fold equity. To me the 75% pot river bet looks like "how much can I get him to pay" rather than "what is the optimal bluffing size". But maybe I am overthinking this as well

I know exactly what you're saying here, thats why this is such a rough spot. There are many things in this hand that are leading me to believe they are not bluffing the river such as we have the ace of diamonds that blocks a lot of diamond combos and we raised pre and called two streets of action. Whats tearing me though is that if (this is where if I am wrong it changes the whole hand) we believe villain 3 bets with AK and QQ+ then what is beating us here? Nothing except J10 and we have to feel like villain would be playing KQ in the exact way they played this hand. They would put us on Ax and they would feel the x is not a king or Queen because they have blockers to both. This is a really good hand to post and even though my post says Im calling and I still believe this is a call, I more than get yours and others take on this that it is a fold. Its a situation where if I am right on the 3 bet pre range that villain has so little that could beat us but also would/should be bluffing so little here. Interesting hand and a great one for discussion.

Originally Posted by 300HPGOD

Nothing except J10 and we have to feel like villain would be playing KQ in the exact way they played this hand.

Playing KQ in this way would be a massive overplay considering, that Hero is the preflop raiser and has all the AK/AQ in the world in his range. Overplays do happen of course, but they are not something, we should assume by default. They are more part of that 5% of random stuff, we always add to Villains range, because we never quite know, what people are up to.

Hello, IMO hero played good this hand. Yes opponent showed a strong. I agree with guys that hands like QQ+ and Ak he would 3bet pre flop. On the turn and on the river came cards that change nothing. So I don't see any reason to fold two pair from the flop. Sometimes opponent will have some hands JT, but it happens very rarely. The turn and the river cards seems to be safe. For me it is hard decision on the river, but I think that we can't fold two pair from the flop and on this board. GL