$5 NLHE 6-max: QQ on QKA board

[nml]

Villain is on the button: 13/11, kinda passive over about a 50 hand sample. $8.44 stack

Hero in BB with QsQd. $5.99 stack

Folds to villain, who raises to .11
SB folds, hero raises to .40
Villain reraises to $1.15
Hero calls

Flop is KhQhAs

Hero checks
Villain bets $1.70 into a $2.32 pot
Hero?

Basically it comes down to whether or not I give him credit for the AA or KK. That he has been fairly passive makes me want to give him credit for it, but I had also been reraising quite a bit from the blinds, and definitely not the first time to him. Obviously AK is in play here too, maybe AQ, maybe AJ or AT of hearts? Can’t see JT here

Too nitty to fold? I suppose you could call but I think it’s a shove/fold situation, to me

 

[Jblocher1]

You have to ship it I'm never folding here. He has enough AK to make it good IMO

 

[TenJack]

His stack size means it is all going in, he has almost a third into the pot here. So i agree, jam or fold. To many bad turn cards, such as a J or a T, especially Jh or Th that you might have to fold to if you just flat.

This just sounds like a cooler to me, i'm not good enough to fold this without any other info. I jam with 3rd set.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

So at a glance with combo work, there are 6 combos of sets (which beat us and we have 1 out against), and 9 combos of AK (which we're ahead of, but have 6 outs to improve to better vs us). (This would be a worst case scenario where AQ is never in his range.)

If that's his whole range, and he never folds AK to a jam, we just go with it. We're actually ahead of that range. So you'd need a pretty strong read that he's not capable of 4betting AK pre (which would be very rare, and we can't really know in 50 hands), so just go with it.

It's actually a really important lesson here that while this is a necessary and fairly profitable spot to get it in against that range (KK+/AK), we will be up against a better hand 40% OF THE TIME.

Subjectively, this will FEEL like a mistake in game when we get shown KK+. It's only human to feel that way when we see the result because we are very good at assigning reason to outcomes. It's important that we examine these moments and start to get confident in our process and realize that despite losing, we are still printing EV by putting the money in here. NH.

 

[nml]

Thanks for the responses guys. My first instinct was to fold and just give him credit for the AA/KK, but I thought it out and felt like there was enough in his range to shove


Of course he flipped over AA, but still

 

[Jooseme]

Folding

I think I'd make the call for future information

Villain is on the button: 13/11, kinda passive over about a 50 hand sample. $8.44 stack

Hero in BB with QsQd. $5.99 stack

Folds to villain, who raises to .11
SB folds, hero raises to .40
Villain reraises to $1.15
Hero calls

Flop is KhQhAs

Hero checks
Villain bets $1.70 into a $2.32 pot
Hero?

Basically it comes down to whether or not I give him credit for the AA or KK. That he has been fairly passive makes me want to give him credit for it, but I had also been reraising quite a bit from the blinds, and definitely not the first time to him. Obviously AK is in play here too, maybe AQ, maybe AJ or AT of hearts? Can’t see JT here

Too nitty to fold? I suppose you could call but I think it’s a shove/fold situation, to me

 

[elflake]

A tough fold simply because there are so many hands he could have that you have beat. As Doyle famously said, "If you flop a set and lose, and don't lose you whole stack, you played it wrong". A re-raise to 21 BBs does scream big hand, but many players would do that with less than Ks or As.