$5 NLHE 6-max: QQ in a 4-bet pot NL5z

[Hermus]

GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 6 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat

UTG: $5.00 (100 bb)
MP: $4.93 (99 bb)
CO: $5.07 (101 bb)
BU: $5.82 (116 bb)
SB (Hero): $11.77 (235 bb)
BB: $2.00 (40 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero is SB with Q♥ Q♣
1 fold, MP raises to $0.15, 2 players fold, Hero 3-bets to $0.60, 1 fold, MP 4-bets to $1.40, Hero calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.85) 7♥ 5♠ 7♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $1, Hero raises to $10.37 (all-in), MP calls $2.53 (all-in)

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Got villain tagged as the typical tag/nit fish over a small sample size (>50 hands). Can we 5-bet shove pre against that player type? Ultimately ended up calling because I don't think villain is 4-bet bluffing ever.

Flop comes all low cards two-tone and villain leads out for a dollar. This is the spot where I really don't have a clue. Villain will have KK+ a good chunk of the time I think. I more or less accepted that I'm getting stacked against a better pocket pair and decided to shove mainly for protection against AsKs and maybe the occasional AxKx. Does that make any sense or do we just call it down hoping villain overplays? Do we ever get paid by worse overpairs like JJ and TT?

 

[GreenDaddy1]

Do we really need to be protecting ourselves against AK once we see this flop?

Surely we want him to overplay it, keep drawing to the rare flush or hoping for another A or K to hit etc, and get his stack that way, rather than think he will call off here vs the jam often enough? Even with a flush draw for one combo we're a very decent favourite on this flop vs AK - about 73% favourite in fact.

I think we win the minimum against AK often with the jam, but we've already accepted we are losing the maximum if he has KK+. That doesn't add up for me. We want to try to win the maximum from all his combos of AK to balance out what we lose from all the combos of KK+. Not only that, but the rare times he might have JJ, TT or a bluff (which I appreciate he may have none of if the read is correct) we're also probably folding those out with the jam too rather than letting villain hang themselves.


Another question too, for better poker minds than mine: If we are convinced villain range here is definitely reduced to AA, KK & AK, can we just fold pre? How can we argue that either calling and trying to make the best of it post flop, or jamming it all in pre, is plus ev? I suspect that long term the times we do get paid off by AK through either strategy is not enough for us to come out ahead.

 

[Casey55]

When villain puts nearly 1/3 of his stack in pre Idk if he plans on folding much post-flop, if the guy is a nitty tight player maybe we can let QQ go since it blocks AQ, it seems very likely his range is AA or KK, if his range is AA or KK we are crushed and can possibly get away with an exploitative fold?

As played I would call flop and potentially fold to turn or river depending on what happens. Its kind of sick because after the flop call the pot will be 4.85 and V will have roughly 2.50 left behind giving us amazing pot odds, but if we think our hand is no good amazing pot odds won’t help

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I kind of think, calling is the worst of all three options here. Its creates an awkward situation, where we are out of position with a very low SPR, and we are only really happy, if we flop a set. On low boards like this we have reverse implied odds against AA and KK, and we are probably not getting a ton of value from worse. And on boards with an A or K, we probably just end up giving up and not getting to showdown.

So I would either fold or jam here, and if he is really on the nitty side perhaps not even always 4-betting AK, then folding is fine. It might be slightly exploitable, but a nitty 5NL players is not going to know how to exploit you. There are lots of players at these stakes, where a 4-bet or 5-bet is almost always KK or AA. And then we can just fold, unless we have one of those hands ourselfes. But if we are not sure, then just get it in now and be done. If he has it, he has it, and if he actually fold a hand like AK to a 5-bet, thats a great result for us.

Flop
As played I would also check-jam now. I dont think, check-calling induce a lot of bluffs, and with around a half pot sized bet left, he is getting close to correct odds to call with AK. So we dont actually even care, if he call or fold with that hand. Whereas if we check-call, we are realistically just giving AK two free cards to draw out on us.

Of course we are always getting snapped by KK, AA and AK of spades, and he probably rarely have JJ or TT. But if we think, he range is massively weighted towards KK and AA, and that he would check back AK on a flop like this, then I would much rather have folded preflop. Because then we are really only hoping to flop a set, and if we are only hoping to flop a set, there is no real difference between 22 and QQ.

 

[loafaBREAD]

You are OOP vs a 4-bet from EP. Assuming V has no bluffs QQ is still a shove pre.

Money in the middle: $2.07
You risk $4.40 to win V's $5 + the $2.07

You have to be good 38% of the time to break even.

If he calls with AK, AA, and KK, you have 39.6% against his range

 

[Noroma]

I mean, to be honest by just cold calling QQ's you are hoping for a flop below Queens. He is most likely 4betting with a range of KK+ and AKs, maybe AKo? OOP he most likely flats some of the hands that you talk about.

The problem with flatting queens OOP with his stack is that if a board comes with an A or a K on it, then you will be playing blind. Would you ever fold to a raise if that was the case? And the board comes below a queen, would he get out of the way with Ace kings? By flatting out of position you either have to make a hero fold / hero call, or you risk him folding worse hands. I think we just shove OOP and pray he has AK or worse, even though we are likely beat. With the SPR this low, you pretty much a very small margin of outplay postflop, and if he has Kings or aces, you are still getting it in if the board comes low -But you may risk him folding AK hands that missed.

I think as played, we most likely just call him down, because in that case we at least have a chance that he could be bluffing some of his hands, but also I don't mind just shoving here? I mean you are out of position, so come turn and he doesn't improve, he may be inclined to check behind. So if you call, then you probably want to make a blocker bet on the turn? I think OOP this is just a shove