$5 NLHE 6-max: Paired board, reraised on the river

[GreenDaddy1]

$5 NLHE 6-max: Paired board, reraised on the river

Had to post this because... well, you do the analysis and then once you're done with that see the result.

Background, this is towards end of a frustrating up and down 10nl session on both snap and regular tables. I don't normally get to play this time of day (midday and early afternoon UK time) and was surprised by the number of fish around. Had been up a bit then got into some nasty river spots where I struggled to lay down, flush over straight, straight over set, that sort of thing. So, when I go for thin value here and get raised I am thinking ugh not again.

Anyway, villain looked bad, so I had to call. Was playing 42/8, so I actually had them on quite a tight range to be open raising and calling the 3 bet. Paired board on the turn was concerning so I just went for the pot control check, would have hated to be raised. When it checks through to river and I hit the nut straight I can't just sit back here, have to get some value.

I think normally I'd have snapped this off given villain's stats, but on the back of two similar spots where I lost I was really talking myself out of it and ran the clock down pretty concerned. Should really have tried to get his last 15bb or so in too to be honest!



Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 118.6 BB
SB: 114.8 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 78.2 BB
MP: 76.9 BB
CO: 96.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♦ Q♦

UTG raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, UTG calls 8 BB

Flop: (24.5 BB, 2 players) T♦ 9♣ J♣
Hero bets 8 BB, UTG calls 8 BB

Turn: (40.5 BB, 2 players) T♠
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: (40.5 BB, 2 players) K♦
Hero bets 17.3 BB, UTG raises to 43.2 BB, Hero calls 25.9 BB

Spoiler

UTG shows 8♥ 3♥ (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 35%, Flop 31%, Turn 23%)
Hero shows A♦ Q♦ (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 65%, Flop 69%, Turn 77%)
Hero wins 120.6 BB

ARE YOU KIDDING ME? WHAT WAS I WORRYING ABOUT

 

[Redman1902]

I wouldn't worry too much about being behind on the river. hands that beat you on the river would also be aggressive on the turn in my opinion (value + protection against your strong range and since the board still offers some draws).

Therefore, apart from TT, I would consider the pairs 99,JJ as unlikely. I would also eliminate KK because of preflop.

I would also not put him on too many bluffs, since there won't be many missed draws since they all connect in some way with the board.

I would put him mainly on ~AK, KJ, Qx type of hands (that would call a 3bet preflop). With the Kx hands, I wouldn't be sure if he would raise them again.

 

[Redman1902]

Okay, of course I would not have expected this result. Looks like a tilt (or multiple tilts) to me, because your opponent has very little fold equity on the river on this board.

If you hypothetically knew he would be tilting and could have ATC, it wouldn't change a lot on your river decision, except that he would have had more Qx hands that would call your shove.

 

[loafaBREAD]

Preflop sizing is actually nice, though you could throw another bb or two on there if you feel like it. V isn't folding so it depends on how you feel playing oop post-flop.

V flatting the flop as a fish I think discounts most of his 2 pair/ sets. I think you need to check this board a fair amount, even v a fish, since vs are likely to overplay/spew/protection bet WAY to large with mediocre hands in this spot. But betting 1/2 pot is fine too!

Turn check is fine, glad to see V check back.

River is interesting. Vs a fish there is some logic in straight up jamming here, as you unblock Kx and V would have all kinds of Kx here. Most vs even flat AK utg vs a 3-bet anyway, and this is the type of player to pay you off.

Vs a good opponent you could block bet, call this spot. I'd discount most sets from V here , so don't be too mubsy vs a fish. The only way to beat the rake at 10nl is to absolutely take these fish for every penny...!

The spoiler.... yea, no amount of analysis will help you understand that.

Well played!

 

[eetenor]

Had to post this because... well, you do the analysis and then once you're done with that see the result.

Background, this is towards end of a frustrating up and down 10nl session on both snap and regular tables. I don't normally get to play this time of day (midday and early afternoon UK time) and was surprised by the number of fish around. Had been up a bit then got into some nasty river spots where I struggled to lay down, flush over straight, straight over set, that sort of thing. So, when I go for thin value here and get raised I am thinking ugh not again.

Anyway, villain looked bad, so I had to call. Was playing 42/8, so I actually had them on quite a tight range to be open raising and calling the 3 bet. Paired board on the turn was concerning so I just went for the pot control check, would have hated to be raised. When it checks through to river and I hit the nut straight I can't just sit back here, have to get some value.

I think normally I'd have snapped this off given villain's stats, but on the back of two similar spots where I lost I was really talking myself out of it and ran the clock down pretty concerned. Should really have tried to get his last 15bb or so in too to be honest!



Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 118.6 BB
SB: 114.8 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 78.2 BB
MP: 76.9 BB
CO: 96.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♦ Q♦

UTG raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, UTG calls 8 BB

Flop: (24.5 BB, 2 players) T♦ 9♣ J♣
Hero bets 8 BB, UTG calls 8 BB

Turn: (40.5 BB, 2 players) T♠
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: (40.5 BB, 2 players) K♦
Hero bets 17.3 BB, UTG raises to 43.2 BB, Hero calls 25.9 BB

Spoiler

UTG shows 8♥ 3♥ (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 35%, Flop 31%, Turn 23%)
Hero shows A♦ Q♦ (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 65%, Flop 69%, Turn 77%)
Hero wins 120.6 BB

ARE YOU KIDDING ME? WHAT WAS I WORRYING ABOUT

Thank you for posting

Wow 83 lol.

Ok it appears that 4bb open was an indicator sizing we want to note that and start looking at other players to see if they are doing the same thing.

As played I would wonder if your flop sizing does not effect the range we would hope it would vs your player pool?
Some times small sizing triggers aggression vs weaker players

In this spot had the V raised flop they could have shoved turn and made us fold. Not this V but others. SPR possibility as no reason for UTG to not raise all their sets here.
A decent player might suspect you have fewer KQ and bluff this board when you small bet.
How often are you 3x raising with KQ from BB? the smaller flop bet will want to include KQ in that range vs UTG open.
GTO ranges deep cash has us folding half our KQ off to UTG and calling 75% KQS raising the rest.

As to the river call not shove weak V often under value their big hands trapping until the river so as played is fine. Your V are so weak that they can be raising wow 83 lol however because they accidentally balance their river ranges we want save those last few chips just incase. When getting full value we want to think about where our value hand falls in relation to best hand.
TT is quads 100% possible as played KK 75% possible JJ 100% 99 100%
Based on GTO UTG action vs BB 3 bet deep cash. KK 4 bets pre 25% of the time.


In this spot shoving does nothing as they fold their 83 anyway.

You may want to review V hands and see how often they polarize that raise on river I think you will find that most V will call trip tens and below vs your river lead on this type of board.

Hope this helps