This is a discussion on $5 NLHE 6-max: NL5 can I call big river bet? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; villain 21vp 8pr 88 hands, is my hand too strong to fold or i need to let this one go?
PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit -
Bet the turn. You want to bet for value, but if you're raised against an opponent like this you can let your hand go. As played, river check is good, and that would be a pretty standard fold for that sizing vs. this opponent.
He's not VBing Jx at that sizing and probably doesn't understand range betting. Most of his range is Jx, 6x, 33, and flush. Only 6x, and 33 would bet at this sizing, and flush on paired boards probably wouldn't as well. There's unlikely very few bluffs in his range also. So pretty std river check / fold.
re: Poker & $5 NLHE 6-max: NL5 can I call big river bet?
Pretty standard squeeze, unfortunately they both call.
I like the small C-bet especially against two opponents.
I will go against the flow here and say, I kind of like your check. I think, the flush is pretty relevant here, because its 3 low flush cards on the board, and you dont hold a flush card either. So there are quite a lot of flush combos, that can be in there even in a 3-bet pot. I also dont think, he is paying two more bets with worse, so you need to check somewhere, and why not just check now.
When he check behind, and the river card is a fairly brick 6, I think, you are likely to have the best hand. I think, he would mostly have bet a flush on the turn to try and get some value, and I dont think, he is likely to have a 6, that just made trips. Maybe he can have a few like 76s, but its fairly unlikely, that a tight guy like this will show up with A6 offsuit or something like that. I think, he has a J a lot, or maybe a pocket pair like 77-TT, and I prefer to put out a small bet like 35-40% pot for value to get called by these hands.
My plan here would be to bet-fold, because if a player like this raise you on the river, an overpair is almost never good. He will have a slowplayed flush at minimum, or even a full house. And when you check to him, and he bet almost full pot, its kind of the same situation really. He is not doing this for value with AJ, and a player like this is rarely bluffing. So as played you can check-fold, but I prefer a bet-fold on this runout, and when he check back the turn.
I hate big bets on the river. This makes you think for a long time about when the opponent got the best combination. I would make a test bet of 1/4 or 1/3 on the river in your case. This helps to get some value from the hands of a villain like AJ or KJ. And if you get a big re-raise on the river, it almost always means a better hand than we have.