$5 NLHE 6-max: Monotone board 2P

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braveslice

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Villain 10 hands, vpip 6/10, RFI 4/4, PFR 4/10, Afq 4/5, Notes: Too loose?

Q1: Do we raise flop CB?
Q2: If we raise CB -> we should get it in given opponent?
Q3: General comments

Hero stats: doesen't matter in this hand imo

Hand with similarities, but this time we don’t really have too many outs when behind: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-game-hand-analysis-50/2-nlhe-6-max-middle-set-402355/

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 9.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
SB: 258.2 BB (VPIP: 14.85, PFR: 14.85, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 102)
BB: 157.2 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 40)
UTG: 119 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
MP: 436 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
Hero (CO): 100.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 6 A

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) 6 4 A
MP bets 5.2 BB, Hero calls 5.2 BB

Turn: (17.8 BB, 2 players) J
MP bets 12.8 BB, Hero raises to 38.8 BB, MP calls 26 BB

River: (95.4 BB, 2 players) 5
MP checks, Hero bets 53.8 BB and is all-in, MP calls 53.8 BB
 
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TenJack

TenJack

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I think that with only 10 hands on villain, making any assumptions is sorta pointless. He might have picked up 6 decent hands. Who knows. Way to much could be going on. I agree with you that your stats are pretty irrelevant as well.

What a sick flop. I personally like to raise. He could certainly have the spades, (I think he probably still c-bets here with his flushes especially if he has been aggressive.) He can be just c-betting air, in which case we fold out and take the pot. (No point, imo, to let him try to bluff turn. If he has air he will probably shut down.) If he has something like AxKs, AxQs then a raise here is really good. We build a pot for when that spade doesn't hit, he is certainly not going anywhere, and by the time the river rolls around stacks will get in no problem.

He could have 44, maybe 66 or AA. That would suck but raising still is decent. We can bluff some spade turns, maybe even a 5.
 
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cs_rlewis

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This is a tough spot. I credit you for trying to get max value with a good hand.
You could play this hand a variety of ways.
On a monotone flop I'm happy to call down rather than raising since I have position.
Raising on the turn narrows villains range down to solid made hands and hands that are flushes or flush draws - hands that have good equity even against your two pair.
Not sure if ak or aq calls your river shove so your only beating weaker two pairs and losing to everything else. But at microstakes they can call you with top pair here so who knows.
 
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micromoi

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he could have AQ or AK and u can get value from those 2 hands but those are the only ones u may get value from. preflop, flop and turn looks fine to me, but the river bet is pushing too much, i would had checked back
 
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braveslice

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Thx for comments.

Hero had a note too saying villain probably is too loose, and combining this to stats I think we can be quite certain he is on wilder side compared to pool behavior.
 
Hujiko

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I like the turn bet as to charge flush draws. I think the river bet is debatable.

What hand range can he have considering that he called your re-raise on the turn?
Sets: 7 combos
1xAA, 3x44, 1x66 => 5 combos
3xJJ but would they cBet the flop lets count 2 combos JsJx => 2 combos
Flushes: 3 combos
Lets assume all broad way spades without the K as he did not bet the river. QJ, QT, JT
Worse 2 pair: 2 combos
Only A4s is likely and there are 2 unaccounted for
Better 2 pair: 6 combos
AJ is a hand that could be played this way 2x3 is 6 combos.
Top pair good kicker: ? combos

How many of top pair good kicker combos must call the river to make this a profitable bet on the river?
I count 16 combos that beat you and 2 that beat without the top pair good kicker combos. So you need 14 top pair good kicker combos to call you and arrive at the river and there are only 16 top pair good kicker combos unaccounted for.
One could even wonder if all AK and AQ combos will call your turn re-raise.

So I wonder if the river bet is +EV
 
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braveslice

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Hero was going for 3bet, then decided villain is wrong target for light, was going then to fold, but decided then that seeing flop with him is more important. Generally I do agree that 3bet or folding is standard.
 
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braveslice

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So I wonder if the river bet is +EV
Yeah, maybe not.
However, most better hands you listed would insta shove over hero’s turn raise. So there are not that many combos left. I got around 7 better combos at max. But yeah, it’s quite optimistic to find 8 combos that would call. If we give him all AK that is only 8 combos and thus for +EV we should assume he is willing to call also with AQ sometimes, similarly what cs_rlewis commented about calling with TP.
 
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Tuan

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I think raising on the turn is good when you know for sure he would bet twice with flush draw, other wise, you have to just play way a head or way behind. Why raise? Here, read his line carefully, first he raised preflop, then he bet around 80% on flop, and then he bet around 80% again on the turn...ask your self...with what kind of holding do I do this with? I would play it safe and call all three street even if the river is a spade because I don't have a spade in my hand means that he might have 2 spades in his hand; with A6, I have the A blocker so it make it less likely that he has AK...I would definitely not raise because if he has something like 1010, JJ, QQ, KK; he would continue to bet, why scare him away?
 
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braveslice

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I think river was too optimistic given broadway hits turn making calling with Ax hands too hard, combined with too little info about he villain.
 
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RunItOnce_James

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3 bet or fold preflop, you almost definitely can't make money flatting this preflop, especially at lower stakes where the rake punishes you more for flatting. Postflop I would probably just call larger bets like these, possibly make some raises if villain bet something like 1/3 pot, and bet if checked to on a non 4-flush board.
 
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braveslice

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3 bet or fold preflop, you almost definitely can't make money flatting this preflop, especially at lower stakes where the rake punishes you more for flatting
I wasn’t sure about this, so here data base:
Limit 5NL zoom, hero has: {A9-A2s}, hero calls preflop open, hero is not in the blinds, hero calls 144 times out of 3287
https://my.pcloud.com/publink/show?code=XZsQ9T7ZzhC2bUfBd7h6Ml2FG3DxE0AbC0k0



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