$5 NLHE 6-max: Did I mistake the implied odds?

[OmarRD7]

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/1e5o1gcn

Hi poker friends! Long time had passed when I posted here.

I need help to understand if my shove play in the turn was right. I did it because I thought I had a good implied odds if either V call me.

But please, let me know your thoughts about it.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
3-bet is fine with this hand. Out of position sizing could be a little bigger like 55-60c.

Flop
C-bet is standard, sizing is fine.

Turn
When they both call, I think, its highly likely, at least one of them flopped an overpair, and I dont think, I can get that kind of hand to fold. So at this point I would slow down and check and basically hope, that they somehow check behind, or that they give me a price, I can call. Instead you bet very small, which is sometimes called a "blocker bet". I dont think, they are ever going to fold to this sizing, and I also think, an overpair will raise all day, so I really dont like this bet.

You do in fact get raised, and now you move all in. Here there seem to be some confusion about terminology, because you talk about implied odds. But implied odds is the money, you will win or lose on future betting rounds, so when you move all in, there are no implied odds.

The reason to move all-in is for fold equity, and since the guy has committed most of his stack already, I would expect very little fold equity, even though this time he actually did fold. Which can only mean, that he either misclicked or timed out, or he was on an absolute stone bluff, which makes no sense for him to have after overcalling the flop bet.

But anyways I would not jam here, because I think, the vast majority of the time you are just putting your last 30BB in behind. I would however call, because assuming, that BB fold, which I would expect him to do most of the time, you are paying around 2$ to win a pot of 8,5$, so you need less than 20% equity, and with a 12 out draw, this is more than good enough even just in direct odds. I also think, you can play the river very well by essentially folding, when you miss and getting paid, when you hit.

Results
This is just a really bizarre hand with the way, everyone played it. BTN apparently raising the turn without even having a decent draw, BB slowplaying top set, and you making some weird blocker bet on the turn. At the end of the day the flop was just a classic set-up though, and its completely standard to go broke with your hand, when you dont improve.

 

[eetenor]

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/1e5o1gcn

Hi poker friends! Long time had passed when I posted here.

I need help to understand if my shove play in the turn was right. I did it because I thought I had a good implied odds if either V call me.

But please, let me know your thoughts about it.

Thank you for posting.

It is most likely you will be called by the turn raiser but truly we would prefer to be called by both players. You are close to having the right odds if the V raises turn with 1 pair but only 1 pair if the other V folds.

That being the case with this drawing hand we can call to get the over call giving us the proper odds no matter how strong V2 is.


You may consider reviewing your bet sizing here. A2 SB when choosing a raise size wants some folds from BU. BU range may be more clearly defined as well by SB raise sizing.

Preflop 3x allows BTN to call most of their range even when the BB folds. The BB may expect that call and calls a wider range as well.

Therefore 4x may be the better sizing from the SB.

On the flop you bet .55 giving the BB 4.45-1 on a call the BTN now gets 5.45-1
If you had AcAs would you choose the same bet size?
Might we not want to win the pot with A high if so are we choosing a size that lets us do this OOP
Does this sizing define our V's ranges for us?

Think about your turn sizing and how it relates to your full range. Is this the most EV sizing? Does it open us up to bluffs? Does it cap our range? Does it put our stack at risk?
Does it give us a good river shove sizing when the flush comes in? Would our V expect us to shove the flush card for full pot when called by 2 players without the flush?

Hope this helps

 

[fundiver199]

you are paying around 2$ to win a pot of 8,5$, so you need less than 20% equity

Made a math error here. Should have "less than 25% equity", but with a 12 out draw, thats still good enough. Of course you only have 10 outs against a set, but I dont expect to be against a set all the time.

 

[OmarRD7]

Preflop
3-bet is fine with this hand. Out of position sizing could be a little bigger like 55-60c.

Flop
C-bet is standard, sizing is fine.

Turn
When they both call, I think, its highly likely, at least one of them flopped an overpair, and I dont think, I can get that kind of hand to fold. So at this point I would slow down and check and basically hope, that they somehow check behind, or that they give me a price, I can call. Instead you bet very small, which is sometimes called a "blocker bet". I dont think, they are ever going to fold to this sizing, and I also think, an overpair will raise all day, so I really don't like this bet.

You do in fact get raised, and now you move all in. Here there seem to be some confusion about terminology, because you talk about implied odds. But implied odds is the money, you will win or lose on future betting rounds, so when you move all in, there are no implied odds.

The reason to move all-in is for fold equity, and since the guy has committed most of his stack already, I would expect very little fold equity, even though this time he actually did fold. Which can only mean, that he either misclicked or timed out, or he was on an absolute stone bluff, which makes no sense for him to have after overcalling the flop bet.

But anyways I would not jam here, because I think, the vast majority of the time you are just putting your last 30BB in behind. I would however call, because assuming, that BB fold, which I would expect him to do most of the time, you are paying around 2$ to win a pot of 8,5$, so you need less than 20% equity, and with a 12 out draw, this is more than good enough even just in direct odds. I also think, you can play the river very well by essentially folding, when you miss and getting paid, when you hit.

Results
This is just a really bizarre hand with the way, everyone played it. BTN apparently raising the turn without even having a decent draw, BB slowplaying top set, and you making some weird blocker bet on the turn. At the end of the day the flop was just a classic set-up though, and its completely standard to go broke with your hand, when you dont improve.

Made a math error here. Should have "less than 25% equity", but with a 12 out draw, that's still good enough. Of course you only have 10 outs against a set, but I don't expect to be against a set all the time.

Hi! I liked the way you explained it. Thanks for your time.

So I keep this takeaways:
-Raise bigger at SB with A2s vs BTN because I want to either BB or BTN fold, or both.
-Good CBET and size.
-Bad jam at turn. Implied odds doesn't applied when I go to all-in.
-Better play would be call with good enough odds (2$ for 8$ pot and 12 outs for flush), and fold in river if miss flush.

Please, let me know if I get it properly. And again, thanks!

 

[fundiver199]

Hi! I liked the way you explained it. Thanks for your time.

So I keep this takeaways:
-Raise bigger at SB with A2s vs BTN because I want to either BB or BTN fold, or both.
-Good CBET and size.
-Bad jam at turn. Implied odds doesn't applied when I go to all-in.
-Better play would be call with good enough odds (2$ for 8$ pot and 12 outs for flush), and fold in river if miss flush.

Please, let me know if I get it properly. And again, thanks!

Exactly. Of course this time BB would probably have sprung his trap and moved in on the turn forcing you to call it off, but him waking up with a set after playing it so passively is definitely not the typical outcome. Much more typical is BB folding, and then you can fold the river unimproved, because its highly unlikely, BTN will attempt to bluff you, when he have so little left behind.