$5 NLHE 6-max: How was this spot for a river bluff to steal the pot?

[JackOscar]

I have some SDV sure, but it's so minimal here that I'd call this a pure bluff since villain should have very little air in his range by this point. Our own range pre-flop looks like this: https://i.imgur.com/URxAOJ6.png And since I'm folding A2s-A4s, A8s on the flop we are quite literally at the bottom of our range (could've probably folded this to his likely range-bet on the flop with that in mind to be honest) so if we're having any bluffs here at all this is it. We have a lot of pure value hands to balance it out with as well since so much of our range got there on the turn or river. Villain also capped his range on the turn while our check-back was pretty procedural still leaving all the nutted hands in our range. We also block Ts9s as well as 89s (but he would've bet the turn with that so not as consequential).

I think KTs (KsTx would've been even better but not in our range) is also a clear bluff here (blocks KQ,KJ). AsT with the nut flush blocker as well as blocking AQ,AJ probably has little enough SDV to make it into a bluff as well.


888Poker Snap, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

Djig1t (UTG): $5.00 (100 bb)
Rosie498 (MP): $5.00 (100 bb)
sanukmaak (CO): $7.70 (154 bb)
PokerLady15 (BU): $7.16 (143 bb)
JackOscar95 (SB): $5.60 (112 bb)
DeSqueezeMe (BB): $12.55 (251 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero (JackOscar95) is SB with 9♥ 9♠
3 players fold, PokerLady15 (BU) raises to $0.10, JackOscar95 (SB) 3-bets to $0.35, 1 fold, PokerLady15 (BU) calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.75) 2♦ T♣ Q♠ (2 players)
JackOscar95 (SB) checks, PokerLady15 (BU) bets $0.30, JackOscar95 (SB) calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.35) J♠ (2 players)
JackOscar95 (SB) checks, PokerLady15 (BU) checks

River: ($1.35) 7♠ (2 players)
JackOscar95 (SB) bets $1.12, PokerLady15 (BU) calls $1.12

Total pot: $3.59 (Rake: $0.21)

Showdown:
JackOscar95 (SB) shows 9♥ 9♠ (a pair of Nines)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 55%, Flop: 11%, Turn: 16%, River: 0%)

PokerLady15 (BU) shows Q♥ K♦ (a pair of Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 45%, Flop: 89%, Turn: 84%, River: 100%)

PokerLady15 (BU) wins $3.38

 

[gustav197poker]

I agree with your analysis. The question we must ask ourselves is, do we think there are enough bluffs in the V for that fold his hands on the river? Recall that in this 3-bet pot, Villain has led the flop with her donk bet. What hands the villain could that flop bet? Could this V really bet low-medium pockets here? In the flop bet we can add in RV 6-6; 7-7 +? In that case 9-9 would be a value neutralized by 7-7 and 8-8, since these combinations of rank V are blocking J7 and Q8. We must always try to protect our mid-range value, especially when the board texture is not favorable for us as in this case. That is why we should bet on the flop, a small bet of 1/3 is enough to achieve fold equity.
On the turn the check line definitely favors the V range. We now have negative equity against the BTN range. This situation becomes even more unfavorable on the river. We have no power to cheat, even a hand as poor as 7-8 could make us folding here.
One thing to keep in mind is that micro-staked villains generally have very little bluff range. So this type of leadership bet on the flop will essentially represent a value bet. And on a mid-high board like this, it should be an alert to adjust our attack range and only do it with stronger hands. How the river was played should be x / f although the ideal is to fold on the flop to NL5, if before we not bet first.
Greetings.

 

[JackOscar]

I agree with your analysis. The question we must ask ourselves is, do we think there are enough bluffs in the V for that fold his hands on the river? Recall that in this 3-bet pot, Villain has led the flop with her donk bet. What hands the villain could that flop bet? Could this V really bet low-medium pockets here? In the flop bet we can add in RV 6-6; 7-7 +? In that case 9-9 would be a value neutralized by 7-7 and 8-8, since these combinations of rank V are blocking J7 and Q8. We must always try to protect our mid-range value, especially when the board texture is not favorable for us as in this case. That is why we should bet on the flop, a small bet of 1/3 is enough to achieve fold equity.
On the turn the check line definitely favors the V range. We now have negative equity against the BTN range. This situation becomes even more unfavorable on the river. We have no power to cheat, even a hand as poor as 7-8 could make us folding here.
One thing to keep in mind is that micro-staked villains generally have very little bluff range. So this type of leadership bet on the flop will essentially represent a value bet. And on a mid-high board like this, it should be an alert to adjust our attack range and only do it with stronger hands. How the river was played should be x / f although the ideal is to fold on the flop to NL5, if before we not bet first.
Greetings.

Thank you that is very interesting analysis

"What hands the villain could that flop bet? Could this V really bet low-medium pockets here? In the flop bet we can add in RV 6-6; 7-7 +? In that case 9-9 would be a value neutralized by 7-7 and 8-8, since these combinations of rank V are blocking J7 and Q8. "


Can you explain what this means a bit more, sounds very interesting but I don't quite understand.

 

[gustav197poker]

Thank you that is very interesting analysis

"What hands the villain could that flop bet? Could this V really bet low-medium pockets here? In the flop bet we can add in RV 6-6; 7-7 +? In that case 9-9 would be a value neutralized by 7-7 and 8-8, since these combinations of rank V are blocking J7 and Q8. "


Can you explain what this means a bit more, sounds very interesting but I don't quite understand.

I meant that if we think that this v is wide enough in its range (rare in micro stakes) we should assign some low and medium pockets to it. Among them are 7-7 and 8-8 that harm our hand 9-9, because they have better connectivity with the values ​​of the board. Villain could represent Q8s with his flop bet. And for that case we must have at least one J in our range to balance ourselves and block QJs and JTs at the villain's rank.
Sorry for my answer, I shouldn't recommend any of this as this is a micro stakes hand. I think you should only consider the fold on the flop. Any additional guesswork could hurt you a lot, because micro stakes players don't have definite bluff ranges. It really will not be profitable for you to convert dominated value hands into bluffs, most of the time you will be called for better hands.

 

[JackOscar]

I meant that if we think that this v is wide enough in its range (rare in micro stakes) we should assign some low and medium pockets to it. Among them are 7-7 and 8-8 that harm our hand 9-9, because they have better connectivity with the values ​​of the board. Villain could represent Q8s with his flop bet. And for that case we must have at least one J in our range to balance ourselves and block QJs and JTs at the villain's rank.
Sorry for my answer, I shouldn't recommend any of this as this is a micro stakes hand. I think you should only consider the fold on the flop. Any additional guesswork could hurt you a lot, because micro stakes players don't have definite bluff ranges. It really will not be profitable for you to convert dominated value hands into bluffs, most of the time you will be called for better hands.

No, that's okay I am very interested in these thought processes. I care much more about learning theoretically correct poker than I do exploiting micro stakes, I'm just putting in hands to compliment my studying.

 

[fundiver199]

I guess, this is ok, since you can credibly rep AK, which rivered a straight, and some hands that backdoored into a flush. That being said I also agree with your own assessment, that the flop is probably just a check-fold. This was not a good flop for 99, and even a hand like AJ has 10 outs against you now. So even when he is semi-bluffing, you are rarely doing better than flipping, and you cant really defend well against further aggression. For me its ok to take, what looked like a decent spot to resteal, and then just shut it down, when the resteal failed, and there is no clear way for you to make money postflop.