$5 NLHE 6-max: Good KK fold vs 4bet allin?

[OmarRD7]

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/624HWKAJb

Hi there again This time I folded against a 4bet allin because I thought that some one (either SB or BB) could have AA. Also I thought that if it was the case that I was playing vs gambler fishes I didn't want to put all my money in a roulette vs 2 of them with KK.

Or do you think that I should call allin even if they are just gamblers and go allin against worst pocket pairs than KK? What is the best play in the long run?

 

[Sidetracked]

I don't think I would ever fold KK preflop at a $5 NL 6 max table.

I've only ever folded KK preflop once, and I was playing $200 NL 6 max on Full Tilt pre Black Friday. I had over 5,000 hands on the villain and his 3 bet % was 0 over that sample. I raised with KK UTG, he 3 bet, I 4 bet, and he 5 bet jammed. I folded, and he actually showed me his AA.

Without very, very specific reads like that, I would never have folded my KK.

 

[mktpppr]

Hi,

Readless we must 5bet jam pre, as stated above, without specific reads over a large sample, KK is just too good for action as played.

Also, raise to 4x, which is standard bet-sizing in this spot.

edit: also, as played, BB's 4bet jam looks weak-ish, he should make it $1.85-2.22 with AA, its close

 

[jaworek1405]

Hello, I agree with guys, I also call this allin with KK, with KK I can call even two allins. I read some article about poker and I read that hands pocket KK against one player with pocket AA it happens very rarely, about 5% time. So I think that in this situation it is worth to risk and we can go allin pre flop even against two players. Besides if you go allin in this situation you show very strong hand, very strong move. If I have KK and my opponent has AA we shouldn't worry about it, because it happens sometimes, it is poker. GL

 

[c0rnBr34d]

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/624HWKAJb

Hi there again This time I folded against a 4bet allin because I thought that some one (either SB or BB) could have AA. Also I thought that if it was the case that I was playing vs gambler fishes I didn't want to put all my money in a roulette vs 2 of them with KK.

Or do you think that I should call allin even if they are just gamblers and go allin against worst pocket pairs than KK? What is the best play in the long run?

This is a good question to be asking. As others have said, this should have been at least a call if not a re-jam. Even though we would have lost this time. Let's think about how this plays "most of the time". We CAN fold if we have an extreme situation like Sidetracked noted where we have 5k hands of history with a guy that never 3 bets and all of the sudden they are 4 or 5 bet jamming. But in general, the most common situations here are that you'll be against:
1 - A big Ace and an under pair (This is what we have here with AKs and 88)
2 - Two big Aces (Maybe both AJ+)
3 - Two under pairs (QQ and JJ for example)
4 - An over pair and an under pair (AA and 88 for example)

When we talk about the long run I think it's good to consider expected value or "EV". I'll run two of these scenarios for reference and you can do the rest yourself if you like. If we ever run into two under pairs here it would be an absolute travesty to fold as calling will be literally printing money and we never want to miss these opportunities. And even in the "worst case scenario" we are making a much smaller mistake by calling than we are by folding. Let's look at some numbers to illustrate:

Our scenario. Against AKss and 88ch our KKcd has about 50% equity pre flop. That means if we re-jam and get called by the AKs we will win 50% of the time. If the AKs folds their equity it's even better but they likely wont. So how do we know if this play makes money in the long run?

EV = (Amount when winning * equity) - (Amount when losing * 1-equity)
EV = (($19.78 - .90 rake)*50%) - ($7.71*50%)
EV = $9.44 - $3.855 = $5.585 (111 BB)
So every time you are in this spot, your expected value over the long run is that you will win more than 111 BB! Let that sink in. They are trying to give you more than a buy in on average here. We want to be taking these spots. Sometimes you will actually lose the 154 BB, sometimes you will win the 377 BB, but if you're in this spot a thousand times you will average a huge win of over 111 BB each time (on average).

Now lets look at the "worst case" for comparison against AA and 88 we have about 27% equity:
EV = (($19.78 - .90)*27%) - ($7.71*73%)
EV = $5.09 - $5.62 = - $0.53 (-10 BB)

So while this is a long term losing play. We are still only loosing 10 BB in this spot on average which is a mistake. But a MUCH smaller mistake than folding when we are expected to win 111 BB on average. So long story short, we have to be ABSOLUTELY sure one of these guys has AA before we make this fold. And this is very hard to do at 5NL with 154 BB effective stacks. Get it in and "gamble". Getting it in with AA is also technically a gamble as no hand is 100% pre flop. You just have better odds and higher EV.

Stack size is also important here if we are worried about one of the players being tight. If the tight guy is the short stack and he shows AA but we know the loose guy will still call with the larger stack and 88 then my over simplified math tilts even more in our favor because we win the side pot so often and even though we only have 27% in the main pot when we win we get the triple up which is powerful and means we have to win less often to be profitable. Just do two EV calculations to better understand this scenario. One for the main pot and one of the side pot when short stack has AA and larger stack has 88 (or any under pair).
EV main pot = (($12.86 - .58)*27%) - ($4.27*73%) = $3.31 - $3.11 = $.20 = +4 BB
EV side = (($6.92 - .31)*80%) - ($3.46*20%) = $5.288 - .692 = $4.59 = +91 BB
EV total = +95 BB (almost as good as the original scenario!)

And none of these are the best case scenario where they both have under pairs. There your EV is just through the roof.

 

[vsawake01]

Wonderful explanation. True for all hands. I think I should be an example.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

After that super long post I realized the real "worst case" scenario is actually if SB folds and we end up heads up with KK vs AA in a smaller pot. But I still don't think adding this last scenario as a possibility changes things. I also ignored "ties" in the equity calcs above so they may be a tad high but you get the idea. We are almost never putting opponents on a range of exactly 6 combos pre flop. And against any reasonable range we are in a +EV spot so I stand by the call or even re-raise stance since folding post flop in a 0.27 SPR pot is kind of silly even if the Ace hits. So here's the new worst case when the SB player 3B / folds and BB has jammed the AA. This ignores the 0.45% of the time we chop and both lose 4 BB to the rake since that outcome is so rare that it does not impact the dollar or BB amount at all (when the board runs out a 9 high straight for example):
EV = (($9.33 - 0.42)*18%) - ($4.27*81.5%) = $1.60 - $3.48 = -$1.88 = -37.6 BB

Losing 37.6 BB on average is indeed pretty bad. But you can still see it's not nearly as bad as folding when the EV is +110 BB. Also, as stated above, we aren't playing against one guy heads up with AA. We are playing against two guys who both have ranges that can contain AA. But even if they do, getting it in CAN sometimes be +EV depending on who has the AA as shown above. So in the long run we can expect to be profitable stacking off here.

 

[OmarRD7]

After that super long post I realized the real "worst case" scenario is actually if SB folds and we end up heads up with KK vs AA in a smaller pot. But I still don't think adding this last scenario as a possibility changes things. I also ignored "ties" in the equity calcs above so they may be a tad high but you get the idea. We are almost never putting opponents on a range of exactly 6 combos pre flop. And against any reasonable range we are in a +EV spot so I stand by the call or even re-raise stance since folding post flop in a 0.27 SPR pot is kind of silly even if the Ace hits. So here's the new worst case when the SB player 3B / folds and BB has jammed the AA. This ignores the 0.45% of the time we chop and both lose 4 BB to the rake since that outcome is so rare that it does not impact the dollar or BB amount at all (when the board runs out a 9 high straight for example):
EV = (($9.33 - 0.42)*18%) - ($4.27*81.5%) = $1.60 - $3.48 = -$1.88 = -37.6 BB

Losing 37.6 BB on average is indeed pretty bad. But you can still see it's not nearly as bad as folding when the EV is +110 BB. Also, as stated above, we aren't playing against one guy heads up with AA. We are playing against two guys who both have ranges that can contain AA. But even if they do, getting it in CAN sometimes be +EV depending on who has the AA as shown above. So in the long run we can expect to be profitable stacking off here.

This is a good question to be asking. As others have said, this should have been at least a call if not a re-jam. Even though we would have lost this time. Let's think about how this plays "most of the time". We CAN fold if we have an extreme situation like Sidetracked noted where we have 5k hands of history with a guy that never 3 bets and all of the sudden they are 4 or 5 bet jamming. But in general, the most common situations here are that you'll be against:
1 - A big Ace and an under pair (This is what we have here with AKs and 88)
2 - Two big Aces (Maybe both AJ+)
3 - Two under pairs (QQ and JJ for example)
4 - An over pair and an under pair (AA and 88 for example)

When we talk about the long run I think it's good to consider expected value or "EV". I'll run two of these scenarios for reference and you can do the rest yourself if you like. If we ever run into two under pairs here it would be an absolute travesty to fold as calling will be literally printing money and we never want to miss these opportunities. And even in the "worst case scenario" we are making a much smaller mistake by calling than we are by folding. Let's look at some numbers to illustrate:

Our scenario. Against AKss and 88ch our KKcd has about 50% equity pre flop. That means if we re-jam and get called by the AKs we will win 50% of the time. If the AKs folds their equity it's even better but they likely wont. So how do we know if this play makes money in the long run?

EV = (Amount when winning * equity) - (Amount when losing * 1-equity)
EV = (($19.78 - .90 rake)*50%) - ($7.71*50%)
EV = $9.44 - $3.855 = $5.585 (111 BB)
So every time you are in this spot, your expected value over the long run is that you will win more than 111 BB! Let that sink in. They are trying to give you more than a buy in on average here. We want to be taking these spots. Sometimes you will actually lose the 154 BB, sometimes you will win the 377 BB, but if you're in this spot a thousand times you will average a huge win of over 111 BB each time (on average).

Now lets look at the "worst case" for comparison against AA and 88 we have about 27% equity:
EV = (($19.78 - .90)*27%) - ($7.71*73%)
EV = $5.09 - $5.62 = - $0.53 (-10 BB)

So while this is a long term losing play. We are still only loosing 10 BB in this spot on average which is a mistake. But a MUCH smaller mistake than folding when we are expected to win 111 BB on average. So long story short, we have to be ABSOLUTELY sure one of these guys has AA before we make this fold. And this is very hard to do at 5NL with 154 BB effective stacks. Get it in and "gamble". Getting it in with AA is also technically a gamble as no hand is 100% pre flop. You just have better odds and higher EV.

Stack size is also important here if we are worried about one of the players being tight. If the tight guy is the short stack and he shows AA but we know the loose guy will still call with the larger stack and 88 then my over simplified math tilts even more in our favor because we win the side pot so often and even though we only have 27% in the main pot when we win we get the triple up which is powerful and means we have to win less often to be profitable. Just do two EV calculations to better understand this scenario. One for the main pot and one of the side pot when short stack has AA and larger stack has 88 (or any under pair).
EV main pot = (($12.86 - .58)*27%) - ($4.27*73%) = $3.31 - $3.11 = $.20 = +4 BB
EV side = (($6.92 - .31)*80%) - ($3.46*20%) = $5.288 - .692 = $4.59 = +91 BB
EV total = +95 BB (almost as good as the original scenario!)

And none of these are the best case scenario where they both have under pairs. There your EV is just through the roof.

My friend! It was an amazing explanation. I'm really grateful. I even put it in my bookmarks to always keep it in hand to remember it and apply this to other hands.

It clearly answers my question. Thanks a lot!