$5 NLHE 6-max: Getting away with top two on a bad river card?

B

beckyg89

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***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (poker stars)
$5.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, March 13, 02:36:11 ET 2016
Table Donati 9 (real money)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $7.17 USD ) - VPIP: 16, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 5.0, hands: 70
Seat 2: Player2 ( $16.93 USD ) - VPIP: 23, PFR: 18, 3B: 13, AF: 4.0, Hands: 44
Seat 3: Player3 ( $7.69 USD ) - VPIP: 20, PFR: 15, 3B: 0, AF: 0.5, Hands: 46
Seat 4: Player4 ( $24.09 USD ) - VPIP: 43, PFR: 14, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 7
Seat 5: Player5 ( $6.56 USD ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 10, 3B: 5, AF: 4.5, Hands: 67
Seat 6: Hero ( $6.03 USD ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 14, 3B: 7, AF: 1.9,
Player2 posts small blind [$0.02 USD].
Player3 posts big blind [$0.05 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ah Qd ]
Player4 folds
Player5 folds
Hero raises [$0.15 USD]
Player1 folds
Player2 raises [$0.48 USD]
Player3 folds
Hero calls [$0.35 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qh, 8c, Js ]
Player2 bets [$0.65 USD]
Hero calls [$0.65 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ As ]
Player2 bets [$1.46 USD]
Hero calls [$1.46 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 9s ]
Player2 bets [$3.46 USD]


I think I had to call flop and turn but this is a terrible river card as all things in the world got there do I just lay this down?
 
TimovieMan

TimovieMan

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His AF seems a little high (although, small sample). I'd be inclined to call. We're still good a decent % of the time, and it's great info on how/what he 3-bets and barrels 3 streets.
 
S

Sneaky Feet

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I think we can safely fold the river here. The way villain played this hand the least likely cards he has would be K10. JJ+, J10s+, KQo+ are all in his range and we only beat AKo, KK and KQo. My math could be wrong but it looks like a fold to me. I don't see Villain 3 barrelling with kings on this board either. It's close though.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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I'm folding preflop to a nitty player in this spot. People don't go crazy attacking CO steals.

And I'm calling the river. Only TT has a straight, and it's just such a great river to bluff.

EDIT - Mis-read villain's stats, do NOT fold preflop (and think about 4-betting and calling a shove). Shove the turn, call the river.
 
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