This is a discussion on $5 NLHE 6-max: my foolish hand QJs blaphing within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; snowie say this move is "correct".
But I don't think so.
I think I should have had more respect for 5nl unknown players.
I think FE was zero.
With a 12-out draw I would check-raise here. Most people C-bet to much on a K high board or in fact most boards, and you can put hands like A high or second pair in a pretty miserable spot. Check-calling is obviously also a +EV play though. The only really bad decision would be to check-fold.
The turn completes 87 and puts out a new flushdraw, but most of all its a blank, so I dont understand the decision to change your strategy now? You have less equity than on the flop, and his range is also much stronger, since people often use a "1-and-done" C-betting strategy. So as played I would just check-call again and then probably donk lead the river, if I made my hand. However you check-raised, and now he 3-bet for half his stack. This mean, he is never folding, so your 4-bet jam is only getting money in behind. Instead its a close decision between folding and calling with intention to donk jam the river, if you make your hand.
re: Poker & $5 NLHE 6-max: my foolish hand QJs blaphing
It's not clear why we're raising the turn? Check-raising the flop or check-calling the turn looks better here. After re-raising our opponent, it is already clear that he is ready to play for the stack.
UTG shows 9♣ 9♥ (three of a kind, Nines)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 52%, Flop: 67%, Turn: 77%, River: 100%)
UTG wins $10.87
Thank U 4 Posting
On the flop you have much more equity vs the V's made hand range than on the turn.
Vs 99 we have 32.9% flop equity which drops to 22.7% on the turn.
Vs AsKs it is 12.5% flop 6% turn
So why not attack the flop?
Your raise sizing on turn is interesting what hands did you think would fold?
Was it your plan to bluff missed rivers? Why would you think that would work vs an unknown player?
When you check raise turn for that sizing - pot 2.07- call is .75 2.76 -1 odds -you need to know you have to bluff river to win- very few V are folding much of their range to that bet.
So when your V click backs 3 bets why are we stacking off?
We can call here getting -pot 4.27 -1.45 getting 33.9% to call and be making no mistake,
Vs the very tight range an unknown has with this turn action.
Why a tight range?
What bluffs- min 3 bet this turn?
What Kx wants to reopen betting on that turn?
What V in your player pool play AA like this?
What V raise fold here?
On the river if you call V has SPR .5 what player makes that bluff?
How do they get you to fold 2 pair on the river?
Why min r bluff 10s8s? As8s? those are the best semi bluffs but why min 3 bet bluff?
What V bluffs this turn when this is your range advantage -nut advantage run out and you check raise turn? The turn check raise in a small stakes game is considered mostly nut type hands.
So what should we consider the click back 3 bet in this same spot?
I would not be surprised that 99% of your player pool cannot in an "unknown situation" -if you do not know them -they do not know you well enough to make an incredible 3 bet bluff turn -jam river get you to fold 2 pair genuis play.
The standard range is AKs KK 99 66 8s7s 87off at this level of play. Vs that range we call and get paid when the flush comes more than enough to make it the correct play. We of course have to lead river.
Flop: Either check-call or check raise would be fine. As fundiver199 said, UTG could stab here with A high at very high frequency and you get decent fold equity.
Turn:it is a good card for your range and indeed you could donk. Check is fine and UTG double barrel range is stronger and more polarized on this runout. Unless you believe UTG double barrel too much, your check-raise frequency should reduce compared with flop. Not to say you cannot check-raise with this combo but check-call should normally be a much higher frequency play.
As played, I don't think you re-jam has fold equity here as micro players are unlikely creative enough to come up with 3bet air bluff using this sizing. Even if they have "bluff" like A4hh, you should be better off calling the 3bet and re-evaluate river.
As a few people on this thread have said, this hand would have worked really well as a check-raise after the flop given your odds of winning the hand if you were behind on the flop. I don't know if I would raise on the turn in that position given that a couple of the villains potential hands complete. A re-raise on the turn doesn't seem to be for value because at this point he is not calling you with nothing, so I can't say I'm entirely sure with what you are trying to accomplish with it. However I guess the only nice thing about having all the money in at that point is that you will either hit or not and you don' have to make any tough river decisions had you have hit. Overall a check-raise on the flop and shutting down on the turn if you dont hit seems like the appropriate play for this hand. Best of luck to you!
Hello, I play this hand a little differently. With draw for 12 outs I'm not convicted to play this hand aggressively, because we are deep stack and I don't want to stack off on all my chips. So as played - pre flop it is a standard defend to raise 3x on the big blinds. On the flop and on the turn I prefer this hand playing passively, because we are out of position. As you can see on the turn opponent decided 3bet you and I agree with guys who thinks that on the turn he probably never fold his hand. So on the turn we can call his 3bet and we can see what will come up on the river and if the river card doesn't help us I think we can fold and we can save some money. If we call the turn and later fold on the river we lose about 50% of the stack, so maybe it is not bad option. GL