$5 NLHE 6-max: Facing a Raise after hit my Set on a thought Turn Card!

[Phoenix2223]

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 146.6 BB
UTG: 64.8 BB
Hero (MP): 192 BB
CO: 192 BB
BTN: 108 BB (VPIP: 24.05, PFR: 15.19, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 79)
SB: 83.6 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♠ K♣

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.6 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) 9♥ 3♠ Q♠
SB checks, Hero bets 7.2 BB, BTN calls 7.2 BB, fold

Turn: (24.4 BB, 2 players) K♥
Hero bets 15.6 BB, BTN raises to 31.2 BB, Hero ???

Ok, I'm only beaten by JT on this Turn. The only reliable info about this Villain is that He is a Reg. My problem is:
Q1: What range do you think he is Raising me here? Only JT? Or the other possible Sets, Two pairs like Q9,or even some Strong Combo Draw like AhQh?
Q2: What line do you think is the best here? Call Turn and Call a possible River Shove? 3Bet Shove on the Turn? or any other?

 

[braveslice]

Q1: JT{6}, 99{1}, 33{1}, KQ{1}, QQ+AA{1}, AK{1} + some other weird stuff{2}

Min raises by tighter player are mostly nuts, but here it's hard to have real nuts given flush draws, so maybe he is not very refined after all (also hinted vpip/pfr differense) weak-tight-reg? So his range is a bit wider than just nuts because he sometimes does not want to do what he knows he should do and so he does them badly. Even though my range analysis says differently I would instinctively say that 2 out of 3 times he has a JT here, and if we up JT to max combos 16 that indeed would be the case.

Against JhTh a set of kings still has 20% equity, JTo 23%

imo , villain is weak tight so we have two plans: simplest plan #1 is GII, second #2 call and fold river if no full house, or call weak bet. Plan #2 is doable because it seems villain likes small bets, also chance that board gets 3 to flush is 50% making it scary for the villain. Selecting plan #1 sounds a bit more streamlined though =)

#1 Hero shoves 81bb, villain calls, to win a pot of 218 bb, villain has JT 2/3rd of the time.
EV_jt= 0.22*137 – 0.78*81 = -33bb
EV_nojt = 0.8*137 -0.2*81 = 93.4

EV_tot = -2/3*33 + 1/3*93 = 9 bb

So we can select plan #1 because it’s more poker like solution and seems to yield positive (or at least zero) EV. But it seems that this spot is probably about zero ev what ever we decide to do, from folding to shoving. It would be fun to be able to calculate plan #2 to get some reference, because even though it sounds fun plan, weak tight players might be even funnier.

 

[Sidetracked]

I think shoving the turn is fine.

 

[Andrew Popov]

I think you don’t have to fold on this turn anyway.
You have excellent chances that the villain is playing the younger set, or something like AK. Call or reraise - any line has the right to sell, but you probably wouldn't want to see a bad river, so reraising or pushing would be best.

 

[John A]

Call, evaluate river. I don't hate a shove either. But calling always allows your opponent to make a mistake here, which is what you want.