$5 NLHE 6-max: Do you call river?

[freddydr87]

Vilain has 26/16 with 5 3bet and 30 Cbet but only in 200 hands(not a good sample).
When he checks flop with soo manny draws i dont think he has a Tpair,so i think his rangue is full off middlepair from 88 to JJ(QQ and KK i block them but he could have them too).
So when the river comes i think i have the bets hand probably 80% off the time(taking out all fulls).
Wath do you think,i should have folded? or was a clouse call?
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/5qB1dYG

 

[Hermus]

Since you're opening with a very wide range he can also 3 bet with a wider range, possibly A6s A7s, but most likely all his big aces and small suited connected aces and some suited kings.

Check on the turn OOP with a low c-bet percentage might also mean that he's trapping with his best made hands a lot. After you relax the assumption that checking the flop means he has only marginal pairs in his range it turns out you're in terrible shape with KQs.

You're not getting great odds (25%) to chase your draw and with a paired board you might be drawing dead. If you make a flush you'll get paid by any ace so I don't mind the turn call but folding is probably not terrible.

Picking up some showdown value on the river after your opponent took a weird line and you're not sure what he has is always a sucky situation. He's probably not betting middle pairs though since he's happy to go to showdown with them cheaply. Could we find enough bluffs in his range to justify a call here? I don't really think so. Maybe 98s is in there that could take this line but I'm not sure he'd 3bet that. Maybe JT and T9 of spades but that are only 2 combo's. I think this is a fold.

Hindsight is 20/20 so in the hand it's not that easy to reach the conclusion that he's showing up with a lot of aces after checking the flop, but now you know for that particular player so you can make a note. If other players with similar c-bet stats also check back premium made hands OOP, well that's a pattern and try to exploit!

 

[Lina1020]

I think he's been throwing around when he's back, but on the river anyway, it's very likely he's got an ace on the opposition.

 

[greatgame230]

I start taking into account what you assume the villain has, I mean a medium pair +88 after a 3 bet you do not think it would be up to him to do a cbet to have a complete reading of the hand I would have wondered on the turn when the villain makes his bet what was the benefit of checking the flop on his part (which I think was a bad move on his part) is a wide range but you should take into account IMO that he must have an A it is more likely that a medium pair the river call was not bad with that board and analyzing a hand is much simpler when we can see it in the forum, it is much more difficult to read it when the hand is being played

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard open and standard defend against 3-bet given your position on the table. Even though his overall 3-bet is just 5%, it should be much higher, when he is restealing from small blind against a BTN open.

Flop
When he check, I would put him mostly on showdown value type hands like 88-KK and AX with a bad kicker, and since you flopped the nut flushdraw this is a great spot to put those hands under pressure. So my plan here is to bet with my semi-bluff and depending on the runout maybe barrel all three streets to really put him to the test.

Turn
As played a clear call.

River
Calling with a draw and then instead improving to a second pair type hand is always a bit of a sucky spot. We would almost rather have seen a brick on the river, because then at least our decision would be very easy. Its always very difficult to not be results oriented, when we know, what he had. But I am trying my hardest here, and I think, you can fold for the following reasons:

1) A 3-betting range is typically very AX heavy, so even with AA on the board and after checking the flop he can absolutely have some AX here. AK is not a hand, I would expect him to slowplay, but any of the suited wheel aces or even hands like A8o, which people might occationally resteal, makes a lot of sense for him to play like this. They are not good enough to go for 3 streets of value, so he check the flop for deception and pot control, and then he go for value on the turn and river, when he improve to trips.

2) You block the main missed draw, which is spades. This makes it less likely, he is bluffing.

3) He is betting relatively large. I would definitely be more into calling this, if he went for half pot or less.

The main argument for calling is, that it is somewhat difficult to come up with better hands, that you would check back on the flop. So from a GTO perspective this is probably a correct call, but in the micros I dont think, its a big issue to be overfolding in certain spots.

Also had you bet the flop, then this hand would be protected by having been played the same way as your AX, and there would not be the same GTO "obligation" to call him on the river. Maybe he would have check-raised flop, you would have called, he would have jammed turn, and you would have folded.

 

[Aballinamion]

Vilain has 26/16 with 5 3bet and 30 Cbet but only in 200 hands(not a good sample).
When he checks flop with soo manny draws i dont think he has a Tpair,so i think his rangue is full off middlepair from 88 to JJ(QQ and KK i block them but he could have them too).
So when the river comes i think i have the bets hand probably 80% off the time(taking out all fulls).
Wath do you think,i should have folded? or was a clouse call?
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/5qB1dYG

We have a very nice hand in position. We need to be 4-betting these combos in a decent frequency, where BTN vs SB spots. Unless our adversary is the real nitty one, and even so sometimes we are 4-betting because some nitties are able to fold hands like AQ, AJ, and sometimes even some low-mid pocket pair.

When you do call 3-bet preflop, even in position, you cannot try to represent too much postflop, simple.

The postflop

The Flop

Nasty. I think we should be c-betting this flop more often than checking, we have a perfect semi-bluff (Back Door Royal Flush) and we should try to bluff it from time to time.

The Turn

I don't like this call OTT, because now our odds are not so good as they were OTF, and now we are entering into a dangerous situation by calling. When we call, Villain has AK, AQ, AJ, although we are removing, it doesn't mean Villain will never have this hands, and Villain made a 3-bet preflop, so we are paying an X ammount on the turn for about 20% equity to see a river that we don't know if we do hit a flush nuts if we are going to be ahead.

The River

Since we got so far, now it is impossible to fold our hand, and given the friendly price SB gave us, it must have us beat to the death. But we cannot fold, because we created this path/hand by our own will.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[BatOneHat]

LAG

it looks like you have him pegged as a very LAG player. I think your instincts are sound and you need to call some river bets. He will not be so eager to make these bets once you have won a few hands.

 

[eetenor]

Vilain has 26/16 with 5 3bet and 30 Cbet but only in 200 hands(not a good sample).
When he checks flop with soo manny draws i dont think he has a Tpair,so i think his rangue is full off middlepair from 88 to JJ(QQ and KK i block them but he could have them too).
So when the river comes i think i have the bets hand probably 80% off the time(taking out all fulls).
Wath do you think,i should have folded? or was a clouse call?
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/5qB1dYG

Thank U 4 Posting

I am watching one street at a time.

Preflop our V is in SB and 3 bets us and has 26/16. These stats suggest a very tight range in this spot. We have only a few hands but we need to be cautious in this spot especially with KQ as AQ AK AA which are all in V's range and we are not going to get stacks in feeling great with one pair..
It is not likely we are being 3 bet by QJ or KJ for instance.

Flop
V checks V will check AA 66 77 so we cannot rule those hands out. Maybe they check AK AQ AJ but should they with the 2 flush spot?
We check. If V is checking KK QQ JJ 1010 99 88 do we ever want to small bet this flop, representing the Ax we could easily have. Do we want to win this pot with Khigh? Will your player pool fold under pairs? If yes than we want to be betting with position and a backup flush draw to hit or win without a hit.

Turn
How fast did this V bet this? Also they are giving good odds to call so if they are value betting JJ 1010 this is bad sizing, We are getting 31% vs JJ. Also what do they think calls a value bet? This sizing suggests not minding getting called.
Knowing this I would still be very suspicious. I also know that I may be drawing dead on this turn. We call and make a river read here that is the plan.

There is no way to be any more than 50% certain a flush wins for us vs this V on this turn. So it is a literal coin flip decision on the river with this data if we make a flush.

River

Ohh this sucks.
Do you have river stats?
Ok with no stats we use player pool tendencies.
How often is this a bluff? QQ turned their hand into a bluff Y?
If you missed the flush draw you are not calling if you have JJ you should not call.
At your stake level most players payoff with the K but you have the most likely 3bet from SB flush draw hand so V is not bluffing a missed draw that often.
If QQ bet the turn why is it not check bluff catching river? Or at least check see what u do or check -check raise bluff?
Does QQ expect a call from JJ for that sizing on that board?
AQ on the other hand might expect a call from a K or a worse A expecting AK to have 4 bet pre.

All this said if this V had none of these thoughts than this could be a bluff with 33

You should have slow played your Ax hands in this spot, is that true for your player pool?
What does this V think you will fold here that is ahead of the V's QQ?
Is it not more common to expect calls in this spot than folds in your player pool?

Results

As I predicted tight range preflop
As I predicted checking flop for value.
As I predicted not trying to get you to fold turn with that sizing.
As I predicted not a bluff on the river but a nut big bet.

This V may have made the sizing wrong on the river. Think about why it is the wrong sizing and quote and reply with your thinking and I will tell you what I think.

Going deeper into a hand like this helps us grow faster.

Hope this helps

 

[1player2]

Vilain has 26/16 with 5 3bet and 30 Cbet but only in 200 hands(not a good sample).
When he checks flop with soo manny draws i dont think he has a Tpair,so i think his rangue is full off middlepair from 88 to JJ(QQ and KK i block them but he could have them too).
So when the river comes i think i have the bets hand probably 80% off the time(taking out all fulls).
Wath do you think,i should have folded? or was a clouse call?
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/5qB1dYG

Thanks for your post.


I would have hero called here as well. I put him on a lower pocket pair.


Good luck to all