$5 NLHE 6-max: Do I 3barrle with draw

[braveslice]

Hello,


Villain only 10 hands, but he seems to be very aggressive but not stupid.

Q1: I gave his pair of weakish K. Should I try to make him fold river, if we know he has exactly that.
Q2: General comments.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 176.2 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
SB: 194.6 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 30.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
BB: 89.4 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
UTG: 135.8 BB (VPIP: 24.60, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 4.44, Hands: 127)
MP: 112.6 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 23.81, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 22)
Hero (CO): 137.6 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 5:heart: A:heart:

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.6 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) 8:heart: K:heart: 7:diamond:
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 4.4 BB, SB calls 4.4 BB, fold

Turn: (17.8 BB, 2 players) Q:spade:
SB checks, Hero bets 9.6 BB, SB calls 9.6 BB

River: (37 BB, 2 players) 4:diamond:
SB checks, Hero checks

 

[Gabe16]

I tend to not bluff rivers with missed fd’s. We block hands that villain can call with and fold, I’d also bet turn bigger.

 

[braveslice]

Yeah, I agree turn was too small good point. (size looks a bit better in dollars but not really) But let say you would know he has Kx (weak one) would you still bluff?

 

[Gabe16]

Villain dependent. I’d overbet if so though! 1.5psb. If villain folds at a decent frequency then why not.

 

[quant1986]

I am inclined to give up here as I have weaker hands to bluff with like T9s.JTs



Would doubt if you can make KJ,KT fold as there are simply too many busted draws and the bet size needs to be quite big as well. But why not if you know exactly this villain overfold to large bet.

 

[cs_rlewis]

In general I would say on this board runout I would not triple barrel.
Ranges from the cut off are a bit wider so we do have better hands in our range to choose from such as missed straight draws. If you were in the hj or utg I would be more inclined to triple barrel.
If you know your range really well though you could bluff with a higher than pot size bet because I'd guess there are a lot of bluffs in your range.

 

[John A]

Don't bet the turn. If you're betting the turn, your plan should be that you're tripling. But as played, there's still some busted straight draws your beat, and unlikely they are folding Kx if they called 2 streets, so best to check river.

 

[Figaroo2]

Agree with turn check, we dont want to get raised on the turn and have to fold away our substantial equity.
As played river is a brick, if he's called the turn he should be calling river with everything but his busted draws and your Ace beats those so just check it down. Also you don't know enough about him to know if he lays down on the river

 

[braveslice]

Thank you very much of quality answers.

I though betting turn is given. I mean a) we have equity b) we have plenty of fold equity c) we have minimal current showdown equity

If we get raised OTT we could just call, villain raises 30bb, pot odds 30% we have about 15% direct -> we need to win ~12bb extra on average for break even, given we have position that should be doable.

What I’m missing?

Either we I) we don't have fold equity for some reason or II) we actually have reasonable current showdown equity. (or both obviously =D )

 

[Figaroo2]

Ok ask yourself what hands are just calling preflop in the SB that would call a turn barrel?
My experience is that the range will be something like 56s (gets there), 9Ts, flush draws and made hands Kx, 2pair or sets. pair&backdoors would call flop but many would fold the turn not getting the right odds and being oop.
Say he has 89, he calls flop but should be letting it go on the turn.
So essentially on the end you are either ahead of his draws or are beaten so there is little point betting. You might get a hand like a weak K to fold to an overbet but are a lot of weak kings calling preflop in the SB? Mostly its KQ KJs KTs which are going to call a fair amount on that runout.
To fire the 3rd you ideally want a good scare card to rep flushes and straights and you got a brick. You can only rep 56 AK KK or AA on that runout, a very small number of hands.

 

[vax1op369]

At lower stakes even higher stakes players over value top hand he may have something like k 10 KJ or worse KQ and just found two pair on river. Prob would have checked turn if you hit flush bet if not check again.

 

[micromoi]

u did check the turn so u already told him that u missed the flop and the turn, the 4 is a blank there is no reason to go after this hand he might call with any pair here even 22

 

[braveslice]

@Fig, what you say makes a lot of sense. Do you have (or anyone else) a comment to why not to barrel?

@micromoi, hero did not check turn.

 

[Hujiko]

When he calls you on the flop he must have something either a draw or a pair. There are a lot of draws available but as it concerns low cards T9 or 65 it is not likely that all these hands called. Only the suite ones and then even 65s from the SB could fold and T9 could be 3 bet. So would say on average only 4 drawing combos against a lot of Kx hands and certainly KQ can also come unsuited. He can also have flush draws but as the A and K are accounted for there are not many left that would make the call preflop. Against a Kx hand you have about zero folding equity on the turn and should be prepared to fire another barrel on the river to get a fold. Would not recommend that on the played level as people tend to get very sticky with top pair.

So in my opinion your fold equity on the turn is just not enough.

 

[braveslice]

@Hujiko, my train of though was about same than you have, even the ranges were somewhat same. However, I did come to opposite conclusion =) I guess I need to do some boring study work about this, even though his range pre can be so different from person to person.

I was thinking he won't fold K, but that is given on the turn, but he mostly fold everything else and and also we get easy river without need to fold best hand.

 

[braveslice]

GTO+ suggest (mind you this not the same than making prober analysis) that we can bet or check the turn (2/3 bet, 1/3 check). It’s also suggesting we have around 29% equity ott and villain is supposed to fold only little like 25%. Also it suggest we can call a not large raise ott.

For river it suggests a check with 14% equity. This sounds like the reason given in answer in this topic, we still have some equity in addition that villain most likely don’t fold his most likely hand. (I was hoping a miracle answer here, I checked, but was wondering if he could have something so weak that he just has to fold so that is why the question)

Now it gto+ suggests we bet mostly ott and call raise, but same time it says villain is only folding so little. So I’m quite much even more confused about turn bet =) Only possible explanation thus far has been in my last post, where I suggested that we can buy a free river and gto values that hight. But this sounds dubious.

 

[Hujiko]

GTO+ suggest (mind you this not the same than making prober analysis) that we can bet or check the turn (2/3 bet, 1/3 check). It’s also suggesting we have around 29% equity ott and villain is supposed to fold only little like 25%. Also it suggest we can call a not large raise ott.

Problem with GTO is that it is concerned with balancing, but why the slightly higher betting frequency?

Looking at it again a turn bet might even be a better/valid choice as your not likely to get reraised here (AK or KK, AA would have 3 bet preflop most of the time). Also betting on the turn gives you credit for holding a Kx type of hand and not a flush draw meaning that if an A or flush comes on the river you will get paid by Kx hands (we already concluded that people tend to call to much with these type of hands).

Be aware however that GTO will base it results on perfect GTO counter play and thus maybe more turn folds then human might make such as maybe folding K9, KT with the 9,T of hearts as that blocks some of your possible draws or folding T9 with one heart in it for some percentage and then there are the middle pairs.
From what I see in the stats of player son my level (50-100NL) they tend to fold more on the flop and in some situations less on the turn then GTO recommends.