$5 NLHE 6-max: Call down against aggressive villain?

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MattJM68

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This villain was fairly agro, let me know how you'd play this differently and what you think he has.


PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4


MP: 99 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 16)
Hero (CO): 497.8 BB
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 22.36, 3Bet Preflop: 1.45, Hands: 163)
SB: 99 BB (VPIP: 13.76, PFR: 7.41, 3Bet Preflop: 3.00, Hands: 191)
BB: 97.6 BB (VPIP: 39.13, PFR: 21.74, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
UTG: 188.2 BB (VPIP: 27.95, PFR: 20.09, 3Bet Preflop: 5.83, Hands: 233)


SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB


Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:heart: A:spade:


fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB


Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) 8:spade: J:club: 3:diamond:
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB raises to 12 BB, Hero calls 8 BB


Turn: (30.4 BB, 2 players) K:heart:
BB bets 14.6 BB, Hero calls 14.6 BB


River: (59.6 BB, 2 players) 8:heart:
BB bets 68 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 68 BB
 
WhereDidMyEVGo

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I'd expect to see 33 or J8 there tho you do have a J. You might be beating an occasional 10 9.
 
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MattJM68

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I'd expect to see 33 or J8 there tho you do have a J. You might be beating an occasional 10 9.
Here's my dilemma, against a normal player I'd lay this down fairly easily, but he was more than capable of running a bluff and he has narrowed his range so much that as you said it should just be full houses.
 
Vfranks

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Here's my dilemma, against a normal player I'd lay this down fairly easily, but he was more than capable of running a bluff and he has narrowed his range so much that as you said it should just be full houses.
How do you know all that after only 23 hands?

I was thinking J8 or 33 as well, but I guess it could be a bluff. I'd fold and wait for a better spot.
 
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How do you know all that after only 23 hands?
He'd shown some nonsense already.

I was thinking J8 or 33 as well, but I guess it could be a bluff. I'd fold and wait for a better spot.
Yeah so if we're only worrying about J8 or 33, give him T9, QT as bluffs then he has much more bluffs than value, right?
 
c9h13no3

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What's his aggression frequency? Include that “nonsense” so we know what you mean.
 
c9h13no3

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Fair point, but it's not something thats on my HUD.
Well this hand hinges only on your read. It could be terrible or great depending on what he's done post-flop in those 23 hands. And you've given us no data on that. All we have to go on is the 38/21 pre.

I suppose in a vacuum it's okay. I probably fold the river once he goes from keeping the bet size small to jamming, and idiots will play 8x this way fairly often. But reads could sway this big time, from fold the flop to call all the way down.
 
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Well this hand hinges only on your read. It could be terrible or great depending on what he's done post-flop in those 23 hands. And you've given us no data on that. All we have to go on is the 38/21 pre.

I suppose in a vacuum it's okay. I probably fold the river once he goes from keeping the bet size small to jamming, and idiots will play 8x this way fairly often. But reads could sway this big time, from fold the flop to call all the way down.

Ok I went through the archives, AFq = 71.43


Firstly can you explain the relevance of this stat as i've never used it and then how this affects your view on the hand, thanks.
 
c9h13no3

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Ok I went through the archives, AFq = 71.43


Firstly can you explain the relevance of this stat as i've never used it and then how this affects your view on the hand, thanks.
Wow, that's insanely high. Yeah, call down all day.

AFq = (Bets + Raises) / (Bets + Raises + Calls + Checks + Folds)

Essentially it's the first postflop aggression statistic to mean anything, because it takes into account every action your opponent has done postflop. Most players will run between 35%-50%. 71% is pretty crazy.

In 23 hands, he's played 9. So there's at least 9 actions in that sample size, probably many more if you've seen a showdown.

In this instance, I might click back the flop (min-raise), try to get the money in fast & get him to shove over your raise.
 
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Wow, that's insanely high. Yeah, call down all day.

AFq = (Bets + Raises) / (Bets + Raises + Calls + Checks + Folds)

Essentially it's the first postflop aggression statistic to mean anything, because it takes into account every action your opponent has done postflop. Most players will run between 35%-50%. 71% is pretty crazy.

In 23 hands, he's played 9. So there's at least 9 actions in that sample size, probably many more if you've seen a showdown.

In this instance, I might click back the flop (min-raise), try to get the money in fast & get him to shove over your raise.
In the end he showed, and I laughed for a few minutes, T5s. No clue what he was thinking, pure bluff I guess.
 
Bozovicdj

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Essentially it's the first postflop aggression statistic to mean anything, because it takes into account every action your opponent has done postflop. Most players will run between 35%-50%. 71% is pretty crazy.

I think that even 35-50 is pretty high. I can't remember on which poker site, but read that pros have AF at round 25% while 25-35% is pretty good, anything above is a bit loose so 71% is definitely crazy!
Would call this like you did, but keep in mind, you have low number of hands on your opponent. Try to include your statistics into consideration for opponents you had 100+ hands with.
 
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I think that even 35-50 is pretty high. I can't remember on which poker site, but read that pros have AF at round 25% while 25-35% is pretty good, anything above is a bit loose so 71% is definitely crazy!
Would call this like you did, but keep in mind, you have low number of hands on your opponent. Try to include your statistics into consideration for opponents you had 100+ hands with.

Yeah I normally do, economics student so ive had law of large numbers etc ingrained into me. I wasnt too bothered about his stats when i played this though, it was more based on the hands he'd previously played and his style.
 
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