$5 NLHE 6-max: BB v CO 2 pair river donk?

[loafaBREAD]

I think a river lead is fine here, but I think I should have made it smaller... like 3/4 or 2/3 maybe. Even if he just calls with AK, KJ (k of spades) and AQ I think it is profitable. V can't raise since we also have way better hands.

Let me know if my thinking is correct:

Yatahay Network - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players


CO: 112.6 BB
BTN: 167.6 BB
SB: 100.4 BB
Hero (BB): 101.4 BB
UTG: 194.8 BB
MP: 100.6 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q:heart: T:heart:

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) 2:club: T:spade: 4:spade:
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (6.4 BB, 2 players) A:spade:
Hero checks, CO bets 4.2 BB, Hero calls 4.2 BB

River: (14.8 BB, 2 players) Q:club:
Hero bets 16 BB, CO calls 16 BB

 

[300HPGOD]

It going to depend on how villain perceives our overbet lead. The answer to that might be impossible to know in game but if they see an overbet as super strength you can get them to fold out better hands like better two pairs and maybe even small flushes depending on villain. If they see it as just a large bet than I am not sure what worse calls you other than AK. You said that villain cant raise us since we could have a stronger hand. That is true if they have two pair or even KJ for the straight but they could have nut flush here (they dont which we know now with results but we didnt know that when we led here). I think leading this big allows villain to play more perfectly against us assuming they are a player who can fold top pair. We are either overbetting leading into a flush or getting folds from hands that are good but worse than ours.

I am a little torn on leading vs not leading since I like bluff catching in this spot but our hand might be a little too good to risk a check back so I would lead here sometimes and check other times depending on how aggro my opponent is. I think its a bet fold though when we get raised so in the end I would check more and bluff catch vs leading out here.

I know a lot of players could call down here with hands that would make you say wtf but I would not count on that and would rather go the route that I think gets best value most of the time and that would be 60% ish lead bet or a check to induce a bluff or let Ax fire one more into the pot.

 

[SPYDER1998]

If you think your opponent is a fish that loves his top pair it's ok to donk overbet the river but you can also check raise because your opponent is almost 100% will bet the river by 1/2 or 2/3 pot or even more where you can MINRAISE for you to get a high chance of call.

but if your opponent is a REG, they can easily fold top pair on a donk overbet lead. because you almost no BLUFF with that move.

and if you get raised after the donk lead, you should FOLD on that spot i think

 

[John A]

Not a fan. And I'm probably c/fing the turn unless my opponent is a total donk because KJ and air are probably betting this flop a ton, and Ax is checking behind a large %. As played, I think we get WAY more value out of c/cing then leading. And overbetting in this spot is a big mistake. You're forcing your opponent to only make good decisions, which is the opposite of what you want to do in poker.

But it's 5nl, so who knows.

 

[Alex_Ogienko]

On the river, a check-raise looks preferable. Thus, we get more value from the hands of the Ax.

 

[jaworek1405]

Hello, I agree with hero that bet on the river could be a little smaller. Hero made a little risky move, because of complete the flush on the river. As played - check on the flop seems as a standard game, the turn card - I think we shouldn't afraid the one over card against our pair, so I also play check/call the turn to see what happend on the river. I afraid sometimes the flush on the river, but I think that on the big blind range is many suited connector hands and we can try to represent the flush on the river, so I play on the river about 67% of the pot and I hope that he won't raise me. GL

 

[gustav197poker]

I aggre with John A. The turn is pretty good for rank V and bad for us. All his Axs checked on the flop. As played, we get the maximum value with x / c OTR. But another alternative before the river is x / r OTT when villain is competent. Because the CO should fold a significant part of his dominated draws / hands. And we would represent at least 2 pairs, with our raise range.
Greetings.