This is a discussion on $5 NLHE 6-max: AKs | Can we lay down TPTK ? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Is this a lay down?
Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 6 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker
UTG: $5.00 (100 bb)
MP: $6.78 (136 bb)
In my experience when people go bet/3-bet postflop, they usually have some nutted combo. The raise size is also pretty big, so laying down TPTK isn't that big of a deal here, as you could have a bunch of better hands here.
However I'd question a couple different things here:
1. Calling the flop with AK, while definitely profitable, can put you in a tough spot on a lot of turns - you're not happy to see any club, K, 9 or 8 (last two improve A9 + A8/J9 - some of the most likely hands that we are ahead of now) - and that's already like 40% of the deck. Also BTN can easily raise here with both value and bluffs, as both SB and your ranges don't look super-nutted (SB is supposed to check/raise here with nuts, expecting a high betting frequency from PFR).
Personally I'd much prefer raising here, because the opponents are pretty likely to re-raise if they have us beat (which is fine, flopping TPTK while behind is always going to cost at least some money), and call with a wide array of weaker hands that have equity against us - flush draws, Ax, hands like QJs.
Then if turn brings a brick you can get another bet in, and shut down on the river.
2. On the turn raise size is way too small. First of all, he's getting amazing odds.
The other thing is that your raise looks really weak, and he could decide to just ship it with AJ, because you don't look too strong and he was afraid to play river. Just make it like $0.9-$1, get real value, and if he re-raises, it's an easy fold.
It's somewhat weird to discuss a spot that should theoretically never happen, but my logic here is based on my experience that these donk-bettors tend to split their range very face-up after being raised - re-raising nuts and some combo-draws, calling middle-strength hands and folding weakest ones.
this raise in the turn that you make is only good if you have a straight with KJ or even AQ, in my opinion
and i think if you only pay the turn bet (even it is a donk bet), you would have a better chance to win in the river, the pot in the river would be $1.14 , SB can be semi bluffing with a strong flush draw with Kc (yes, he can have KcJ, and you is beat) and probably he won't shove if a blank card hits
I agree with the others, that when a bad player underbet the pot and then come over the top with a big 3-bet after getting raised, he usually has the nuts. He go small, because he dont want to lose his customer. But when he then get raised, he feel, his opponents has something, and then he go for maximum value. A few other points:
1) Why are we raising so small preflop? Its almost a mini-raise. Is that really the best size at 5NL? Especially with a value hand like this?
2) As others have said, we could consider raising the donk bet on the flop. We at least have a gutterball, when we are behind, so we are never like completely dead.
3) If we are going to raise turn, it has to be bigger.