$5 NLHE 6-max: AKo BTN EV play or trapped by T9o?

OmarRD7

OmarRD7

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Hi there. Above hand I played against a nuts player. In 22 hands he recorded 48 VPIP and 28 PFR.

He OC in UTG against my AKo in BTN. I think that that 3bet PF size was good. Also, double barrel 1/2 in the flop and turn was ok. Because I quick calculated that I beat a lot of hands both flop and turn, even when the 8 in turn doesn't help me. Also I was expecting from the very beginning a XC-XC-B all-in in river play from the V.

I made some calculations and In the flop I have this range equity against a range that I put the V:



Equity Win Tie Hand Range

81.7921% 79.6976% 2.0945% [ KcAd ]

18.2079% 16.1134% 2.0945% [ AA(100), A2s+(100), ATo+(100), KJs+(100), KQo(100), QTs+(100), QJo(100), J9s+(100), JTo(100), T9s(100), T9o(100), 99(100), 98s(100), 98o(100), 87s(100), 87o(100), 76s(100) ]

And in the turn against the same range:


Equity Win Tie Hand Range

68.6333% 66.5785% 2.0548% [ KcAd ]

31.3667% 29.312% 2.0548% [ AA(100), A2s+(100), ATo+(100), KJs+(100), KQo(100), QTs+(100), QJo(100), J9s+(100), JTo(100), T9s(100), T9o(100), 99(100), 98s(100), 98o(100), 87s(100), 87o(100), 76s(100) ]

And finally in the river:


Equity Win Tie Hand Range

86.3309% 84.8921% 1.4388% [ KcAd ]

13.6691% 12.2302% 1.4388% [ AA(100), A2s+(100), ATo+(100), KJs+(100), KQo(100), QTs+(100), QJo(100), J9s+(100), JTo(100), T9s(100), T9o(100), 99(100), 98s(100), 98o(100), 87s(100), 87o(100), 76s(100) ]

So, the Turn was the most scared or weak street against my range but, the F and R was pretty good for me.

So, please help me letting me know if I played EV+ and it was just bad beat or... I made my calculations badly.
 
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gustav197poker

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In general you have played the hand well. Regarding the stats, generally a big difference between VPIP and PFR implies a very wide range of play with excessive cold calls. This means that V can filter out many speculative hands in postflop and leave those that suit him best based on the texture of the board.
For example, here a V with a tighter range should not have many combos: 9T, since most players will put you in your range many strong hands betting big size on the flop. Among them the Axs.
The turn is a street that proportionally impacts both ranges. Because once we could ever we could have played like this with a hand like: K9s, etc. That is, when you are looking to polarize your range with a larger bet size, you don't just represent strong values in your range.
Ideally it is preferable not to have the A of diamond in this texture, because now we could get more value from worse hands and we would know that MP would be less likely to have 2 pair or sets.
Therefore in this case OTT it is preferable to bet a smaller size, against a looser range.
As played, OTR is a call primarily due to the fact that we have committed to the pot. If we had opted for a more balanced line, we would possibly have a little more room for postflop decisions.
However, this does not mean that you have played badly. In fact, against weak opponents you will very often beat worse hands.
However, if your villain understands of ranges he knows that he can choose this line OTR only with sets or better hands.
Greetings.
 
F

fundiver199

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Preflop and flop
Not much to say here, pretty standard.

Turn
This was not the greatest turn card, since it does put out some straight and two pair combos, that he could have like 54s, 87s, 86s. It also creates a situation, where a decent amount of river cards will put out a 1-liner to a straight. So we could check back for pot control here and turn it into a 2 street hand, and against better opponents that would probably be my preferred line. But against someone like this I have no problem still being in stack-off mode, since he will likely stack off any top pair and a lot of other stuff as well.

River
You made your decision on the turn, and you are obviously not folding top pair now having already put in way more than half the effective stack. If he had check-jammed the turn instead, you would also have to call.

Results
So he called your 3-bet OOP with T9o, called a big flop C-bet with just a naked gutshot, and then hit his miracle card on the turn. This obviously suck, but you need to remember, that poker is a long term game, and the chance of nailing a gutshot on the turn is less than 10%. So even if he win your entire stack, every time he hit it, he was still not getting correct odds to call.

This is just one of those bad beats from a bad player, that we need to suck up. Reload, give him the "fish" label, look to get on as many of his tables as possible in the future, and continue to valuebet him relentlessly but dont bluff. Then you will eventually get all your money back and a lot more. If not from him exactly then from other players with a similar style :)
 
OmarRD7

OmarRD7

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In general you have played the hand well. Regarding the stats, generally a big difference between VPIP and PFR implies a very wide range of play with excessive cold calls. This means that V can filter out many speculative hands in postflop and leave those that suit him best based on the texture of the board.
For example, here a V with a tighter range should not have many combos: 9T, since most players will put you in your range many strong hands betting big size on the flop. Among them the Axs.
The turn is a street that proportionally impacts both ranges. Because once we could ever we could have played like this with a hand like: K9s, etc. That is, when you are looking to polarize your range with a larger bet size, you don't just represent strong values in your range.
Ideally it is preferable not to have the A of diamond in this texture, because now we could get more value from worse hands and we would know that MP would be less likely to have 2 pair or sets.
Therefore in this case OTT it is preferable to bet a smaller size, against a looser range.
As played, OTR is a call primarily due to the fact that we have committed to the pot. If we had opted for a more balanced line, we would possibly have a little more room for postflop decisions.
However, this does not mean that you have played badly. In fact, against weak opponents you will very often beat worse hands.
However, if your villain understands of ranges he knows that he can choose this line OTR only with sets or better hands.
Greetings.

Hi, gustav! Thanks for your help again. So my takeaway for your reply is:

All my streets play are pretty standard. The only thing that I could do better is a smaller bet OTT due the 8, specially against better opponents. Maybe 1/4 pot? And in the river call his jam? Please let me know your answer.

Preflop and flop
Not much to say here, pretty standard.

Turn
This was not the greatest turn card, since it does put out some straight and two pair combos, that he could have like 54s, 87s, 86s. It also creates a situation, where a decent amount of river cards will put out a 1-liner to a straight. So we could check back for pot control here and turn it into a 2 street hand, and against better opponents that would probably be my preferred line. But against someone like this I have no problem still being in stack-off mode, since he will likely stack off any top pair and a lot of other stuff as well.

River
You made your decision on the turn, and you are obviously not folding top pair now having already put in way more than half the effective stack. If he had check-jammed the turn instead, you would also have to call.

Results
So he called your 3-bet OOP with T9o, called a big flop C-bet with just a naked gutshot, and then hit his miracle card on the turn. This obviously suck, but you need to remember, that poker is a long term game, and the chance of nailing a gutshot on the turn is less than 10%. So even if he win your entire stack, every time he hit it, he was still not getting correct odds to call.

This is just one of those bad beats from a bad player, that we need to suck up. Reload, give him the "fish" label, look to get on as many of his tables as possible in the future, and continue to valuebet him relentlessly but dont bluff. Then you will eventually get all your money back and a lot more. If not from him exactly then from other players with a similar style :)

Hi fundiriver! Yeah! I thought like you, in the long term, my standard play is EV and the V just got big luck, even a good river for me with top two pair. I'll keep in mind that against better opponents is better X back in that kind of turn. The thing in this hand is that he is maniac player, so... jamming is everything he does. Thanks for your reply detailing different outcomes but same result. That was very helpful.
 
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gustav197poker

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Hi, gustav! Thanks for your help again. So my takeaway for your reply is:

All my streets play are pretty standard. The only thing that I could do better is a smaller bet OTT due the 8, specially against better opponents. Maybe 1/4 pot? And in the river call his jam? Please let me know your answer.


The turn can be bet low or checked with a diamond blocker.
Calling OTR is reasonable against this opponent. This V played like 11 times in 22 hands. Which could be classified as a weak player or fish, or a tilted player waiting for his miraculous hand.
 
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Lochika

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The pre flop and flop decisions was pretty standard.
I think that on the turn you could argue for check and small bet both. On the one hand, betting against loose opponent like this could generate a lot of value since he have a lot of marginal one pair hands that he now have to call with (K7s, k6s, Q6s, Q7s, T8s, 89s etc...).
On the other hand, against tighter player that will show to the turn with a stronger range I love more a check.
The river decision is very easy to my opinion, there is no point on raising since we are getting called only when we are beat, and folding is two weak.
In stakes like this I might consider folding just if I know that the player never bluffs.:)
 
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