This is a discussion on $5 NLHE 6-max: AK | Should we fold OTT? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Thoughts?
Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 6 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker
UTG: $5.00 (100 bb)
MP: $4.00 (80 bb)
CO: $5.00 (100 bb)
I think, you played this fine, and I actually love, that you raised the flop. I think, you are way ahead of his donking range, he only started with 60BB, and he is almost certainly a fish. So lets play a bit pot in position with our TPTK. If he outflopped you with his A2 or 22, good for him. He can have a ton of draws as well or top pair with a worse kicker.
On the turn I kind of hate, that he donk bet again after getting raised on the flop, because it is typically a very strong line. But there is only a little over a pot sized bet left, and while you lose to a flush now, you beat his two pair. So I dont think, I could lay this down either.
Just a bit of a cooler spot, and all, you need to ask yourself, is, if he ever lay down top two, when he has the AK, and you have a flush? And I think, the answer is obvious. No fish in the history of poker has ever folded a hand that big for 60BB at 5NL. So in the long run this is just a wash.
That's pretty gross. Initially I was trying to come up with exploitative turn folds but all the big hearts are out there and he should never make it to the turn with JT. We should only be loosing to 22 and a hand full of suited connectors and gappers some of which should have folded to our well played flop raise. I think there are enough 2 pair combos we beat and pair plus heart draw combos that we probably cant get away. Sometimes they just get there and we are too strong to fold.