$5 NLHE 6-max: AA good folded in R? (very wet board)

OmarRD7

OmarRD7

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Hi there, poker friends! Please, let see this hand with me and give me any advice and opinion.


Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.05(BB)
BTN ($1.71) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]
SB ($11.01) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | hands: 3]
BB ($5) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 2]
UTG ($5.23) [VPIP: 18.6% | PFR: 17.1% | AGG: 57.1% | 3-Bet: 10.7% | Hands: 70]
HJ ($5) [VPIP: 11.1% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 25% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 19]
HERO ($12.39) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 15% | AGG: 43.3% | 3-Bet: 5.1% | Hands: 5506]

Dealt to Hero: A A

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.25, BTN Calls $0.25, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.20

Hero SPR on Flop: [1.9 effective]
Flop ($0.77): 6 T 7
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.45 (Rem. Stack: 11.69), BTN Folds, BB Calls $0.45 (Rem. Stack: 4.30)

Turn ($1.67): 6 T 7 J
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.70 (Rem. Stack: 10.99), BB Calls $0.70 (Rem. Stack: 3.60)

River ($3.07): 6 T 7 J T
BB Bets $3.60 (allin), HERO Folds

BB wins: $2.94

I played aggressively a AA, but folded in R, because the board texture in the very F was very wet for and very loose-caller wide range player like the villain.:mad: I think he could be bluffing, yes, but also it's very likely he got straight (with 98 pocket) or even more likely a 3 of a kind with 66-JJ pocket pairs, that is very frequent PF call in this players.:mad:

Also the poker hud tells me that my equity in R was 68% vs 32% for villain, due to his very wide range.

So, I don't think it was a bad fold. My main question is: was my way of play this hand and river fold a suitable way of play in time?

I'm looking forward for your replies! Thanks!:D
 
F

feisas7991

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dunno whats up with 4x open, could be fine or not, you may want to take a look into it.
flop sizing is probably fine, though could bet slightly bigger.
On the turn you basically done charging their gutshots and all the nonsense they have and want to start building the pot, so for that reason i would bet around 1.15.
Other than that everything seems fine.
Hope this helps and Good Luck!
 
S

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5X open is a bit much. Standard these days seems to be between 2.5 and 3X.

Flop and turn are OK. River is a bad card, but vs a short stack fishy player, I may lean towards a call there. I don't think your fold is bad, though.
 
jordanbillie

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I agree with a slightly larger turn bet.

As played, I snap fold the river as you played it.
 
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gustav197poker

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Your opening was too big. Against that PFR a villain can think fundamentally 2 things. Regular exploitative game or loose and exploitable opening.
Either way, the 1st and 2nd barrel were more standard. Which is a bit contradictory with the first definition. Because a regular player, usually bet harder on those barrels (especially on the turn, where you can make a great blocking bet).
That's why I think that on the river, you have reduced potential, since the donk shove reduces even more the strength of your range.
On the other hand, you have a large aggressiveness factor, so you should try to reduce It a bit, so that your range of values, can have better conversion capacity in bluff catchers.
Obviously you put it in a fine line, on which the fold was the closest possibility.
Regards.
 
Q

quant1986

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Preflop: 5x definitely too big for online game, maybe ok as exploitative play


Flop: This flop is very wet and the cbet frequency should be low. If you do cbet,a larger sizing is better.

Turn: Probably more favorable to BB range, and I am more inclined to check-back here. Would only cbet large if BB is particularly sticky

River: Probably not many natural bluffs. Aggressive villains may have already raised the flop or turn with KsQs, 87, 54s, AsXs. Doubt villain would turn 76s into a bluff. So I would fold in this spot especially you double barrel.
 
TheDude6622

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Totally agree with the consensus that the pre-flop bet was way too large, makes the rest of the betting seem very odd.

On the river, I would have called. It feels like they are betting big on their missed flush draw. If they got lucky and hit their 10, so be it and we pay it off. I just feel our hand is a little too strong to fold in this situation.

If you look at a high stakes hand that basically had this situation as well, Dwan absolutely destroyed Greenstein and Eastgate. The bets basically told Dwan what Barry and Peter had and utilized that to make a huge bluff.
 
0815am

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Most has been stated already. I wouldn’t consider high stakes as a reference. It just doesn’t apply. Villain98% of the time - or more - playing their hand not their range.
In addition they are usually passive. So if villain wakes up and openshoves a river I would fold almost always on this board.

Assuming we have a T, it would be interesting do discuss which Ten we still would call.
 
John A

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Turn bet could size up. River a fold is ok, it's pretty close.

What site was this on just as an fyi?
 
T

TheDev

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With I high pocket pair, especially AA, I prefer to bet big preflop or even re raise to ensure I'm minimizing players in. With a hand like AA or KK you want to be playing heads up. More players, more likely someone hits and runs your pocket studs.
 
Aballinamion

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Capped x dynamic ranges

Hi there, poker friends! Please, let see this hand with me and give me any advice and opinion.


Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.05(BB)
BTN ($1.71) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]
SB ($11.01) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 3]
BB ($5) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 2]
UTG ($5.23) [VPIP: 18.6% | PFR: 17.1% | AGG: 57.1% | 3-Bet: 10.7% | Hands: 70]
HJ ($5) [VPIP: 11.1% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 25% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 19]
HERO ($12.39) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 15% | AGG: 43.3% | 3-Bet: 5.1% | Hands: 5506]

Dealt to Hero: A A

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.25, BTN Calls $0.25, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.20

Hero SPR on Flop: [1.9 effective]
Flop ($0.77): 6 T 7
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.45 (Rem. Stack: 11.69), BTN Folds, BB Calls $0.45 (Rem. Stack: 4.30)

Turn ($1.67): 6 T 7 J
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.70 (Rem. Stack: 10.99), BB Calls $0.70 (Rem. Stack: 3.60)

River ($3.07): 6 T 7 J T
BB Bets $3.60 (allin), HERO Folds

BB wins: $2.94

I played aggressively a AA, but folded in R, because the board texture in the very F was very wet for and very loose-caller wide range player like the villain.:mad: I think he could be bluffing, yes, but also it's very likely he got straight (with 98 pocket) or even more likely a 3 of a kind with 66-JJ pocket pairs, that is very frequent PF call in this players.:mad:

Also the poker hud tells me that my equity in R was 68% vs 32% for villain, due to his very wide range.

So, I don't think it was a bad fold. My main question is: was my way of play this hand and river fold a suitable way of play in time?

I'm looking forward for your replies! Thanks!:D

Hi there OmarRD7, thank you for posting and sharing your hand! Very nice hand!

The first thing I would like to say is that we should play accordingly to the pool: I can see that you have played only two hands with the V in the Big Blind, but it seems that it just called 50% preflop.
When you see players ahead that love very much to call preflop to hit their exquisite equities, make a bigger preflop raise, without risk of they fold too much (the risk here is that they call too much, so we want to inflate the pot ASAP to play against a player like this one). However, expect a bigger sample of hands before making decisions.
In Position we can make a 3x raise, 3,5x, if the player really loves to call we can raise even 4x or 4.5x, because this guy is not likely to make a preflop 3bet and because it defends the Big Blind versus Button in a high frequency, something like 40%, 50% or more.
What I say it is not a mistake at all to raise 5x or even more preflop when you know you have a calling station ahead. We don't need to play GTO against players who barely read their hole cards! What happens when we raise low sizings against fishes ahead (both passive and aggressive ones):
A) To call you preflop with a wider range, including a bunch of suited connectors, low and mid pairs, and bluff you out of pot and many scenarios, where we would be out of position in relation to the player in the BTN, and we might risk thinking that the Big Blind may have a capped range, but the Big Blind will show more a dynamic range than a capped one.

B) When we give such a good price for a player in position, for the times we raise just 2x or 2.5x, we are opening the door for more 3bets lights because many players will see smaller raises and a weak point that can be explored, and it makes logic, because we can only continue in a 3bet preflop with the same hands that we could be 4betting or jamming, and those we can't find most of times.

I know that in the specific scenario you had AA from the CO, but from the CO your range is never capped, your range from the CO is dynamic which turns the reading and the exploration postflop completely different. We can have AA, KK, AK from the CO, but we also have a lot of J9s, KTs, 98s, 22, 44, 77, etc.
When you raise preflop 2.5x from the CO you will have in your range:

all the pocket pairs: 22+ (5.88%)+

a bunch of suited connectors: AKs, KQs, QJs, JTs, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s (3.32%)+

a lot of suited aces, strong suited broadways, off suited broadways, some strong off suited aces, etc: AQs-A2s, KJs-K9s, QTs-Q8s, J9s-J8s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo (14.78%)

Thus, we observe how dynamic our range from the CO can be in single raised pot. It is the same for the Big Blind's defense range, it will be very, very large depending on some players.

When do we face players we don't know:

For as boring as it seems, when we are in a cash table against a player that we barely know it, a player that will have a sample of 0 and 10 hands played. It is a very short number for decision making.
IMO, the best solution when we are playing against an unkown, is to treat it like a good regular. We gotta respect our adversaries, specially when we have no information about it.
Assuming that this player also have no information of our game it is a little bit strange when this players bets or re-raises us, because we are completely in the dark. (how can I guy in the dark could be trying to bluff us out of the pot?)

Flop situation:

Flop ($0.77): 6♣ T♠ 7♠

There were 15 blinds in the pot and you bet 9 blinds ? What do you want to represent here, and when you bet so big in the flop which hands do you believe could be paying you?
Because the Big Blind called, our range from the CO most of times is very weak, and with our 18-23% range from the CO we are not always C-betting more than 1/2 pot in a kindda drawie and wet flop like this one. We bet mor than 1/2 pot when we are sure the player in the BB is a calling-station that will defend anything it hits and will try to float us out of the pot with crap.
This flop connects both to the CO's range and the BB's range which will have a lot of pocket pairs and suited connectors.
I believe 1/2 pot here will work just fine, for value and for protection, because many turns and rivers are not going to be good, and if we put a lot of blinds in the flop, we are almost commiting ourselves to the river. It is going to be hard to fold pocket aces in many rivers, when you bet so strong in the flop. (assuming Villain is a good regular, not a recreational).
There are other reasons that makes me not c-bet flop more than 1/2 here:

A) We are deep stacked and V. is just 100 BB. If we bet too much flop/turn we will be commited with a very strong value hand.
B) We don't know anything about our opponent, so why risk that much when we don't have the nuts? If you had pocket T's in this situation, which would be nuts, even so it would be hard to play many turns and river that could connect to BB's defending range.
C) As John Anhalt states in his book "Polished Poker Vol 1" (available here at the forum: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/polished-poker-vol-i-study-group-227214//)
there are some players that we call "flush chasers, OESD chasers, gutshot chasers, etc"
At the micro stakes there are thousands of players which will never fold a flush draw flop/turn and many will go all in river trying to represent their missed draw. :eek:
We want the pot to grow postflop because we have a very strong value hand, but by the same token, we don't want the pot to grow too much out of proportion, in some board textures, because we know that it will be hard to leave our hand, and when we leave the hand we will feel like we should have called.
The Jack of Diamonds in the Turn is a real strange card for our range now, because it connects too much the board, making the reading extremely difficult. For many reasons I would be checking this turn, so I would not give my opponent the rope to hang me.
IF we make the pot grow again here, it will be very strange if Villain float us with a all-in river. Now, following a rational line of game, betting 1/2 pot flop for value and protection it's okay, but the J in the turn connects the board even more, because we were losing for some combos of 98 in the flop, and we continue to lose for these combos at the turn. But in the turn some levelers are going to float us a lot with strong broadways that connects to this turn. We will never now if V. really has Tx in its range or some weak Jack that it decided to flop river because CO has a weaker range in this scenario most of times. :confused:
It is not because that we have AA, KK, QQ, JJ in a low board that we should be C-betting a lot here. Remember we will have many bluffs on our range when we open raise from CO and C-bet a drawie flop with a double barrel turn: we will never have TT, JJ, 98 on our range, because if we had these hands we would make a more soft line postlfop, to induce Villain's bluffs to level against our range and we trap them. I hope it helps you!
Are you sure that folding in a spot where you are winning 68% of times is plus EV?

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
Last edited:
OmarRD7

OmarRD7

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With I high pocket pair, especially AA, I prefer to bet big preflop or even re raise to ensure I'm minimizing players in. With a hand like AA or KK you want to be playing heads up. More players, more likely someone hits and runs your pocket studs.


That's what I like to do as well. I play in low stakes, there's a lot fishy players that call too much in PF with mucked hands (77-22 pocket pairs and similar hands). For that reason I don't share the opinion that my PF raise was too big.

Hi there OmarRD7, thank you for posting and sharing your hand! Very nice hand!

The first thing I would like to say is that we should play accordingly to the pool: I can see that you have played only two hands with the V in the Big Blind, but it seems that it just called 50% preflop.
When you see players ahead that love very much to call preflop to hit their exquisite equities, make a bigger preflop raise, without risk of they fold too much (the risk here is that they call too much, so we want to inflate the pot ASAP to play against a player like this one). However, expect a bigger sample of hands before making decisions.
In Position we can make a 3x raise, 3,5x, if the player really loves to call we can raise even 4x or 4.5x, because this guy is not likely to make a preflop 3bet and because it defends the Big Blind versus Button in a high frequency, something like 40%, 50% or more.
What I say it is not a mistake at all to raise 5x or even more preflop when you know you have a calling station ahead. We don't need to play GTO against players who barely read their hole cards! What happens when we raise low sizings against fishes ahead (both passive and aggressive ones):
A) To call you preflop with a wider range, including a bunch of suited connectors, low and mid pairs, and bluff you out of pot and many scenarios, where we would be out of position in relation to the player in the BTN, and we might risk thinking that the Big Blind may have a capped range, but the Big Blind will show more a dynamic range than a capped one.

B) When we give such a good price for a player in position, for the times we raise just 2x or 2.5x, we are opening the door for more 3bets lights because many players will see smaller raises and a weak point that can be explored, and it makes logic, because we can only continue in a 3bet preflop with the same hands that we could be 4betting or jamming, and those we can't find most of times.

I know that in the specific scenario you had AA from the CO, but from the CO your range is never capped, your range from the CO is dynamic which turns the reading and the exploration postflop completely different. We can have AA, KK, AK from the CO, but we also have a lot of J9s, KTs, 98s, 22, 44, 77, etc.
When you raise preflop 2.5x from the CO you will have in your range:

all the pocket pairs: 22+ (5.88%)+

a bunch of suited connectors: AKs, KQs, QJs, JTs, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s (3.32%)+

a lot of suited aces, strong suited broadways, off suited broadways, some strong off suited aces, etc: AQs-A2s, KJs-K9s, QTs-Q8s, J9s-J8s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo (14.78%)

Thus, we observe how dynamic our range from the CO can be in single raised pot. It is the same for the Big Blind's defense range, it will be very, very large depending on some players.

When do we face players we don't know:

For as boring as it seems, when we are in a cash table against a player that we barely know it, a player that will have a sample of 0 and 10 hands played. It is a very short number for decision making.
IMO, the best solution when we are playing against an unkown, is to treat it like a good regular. We gotta respect our adversaries, specially when we have no information about it.
Assuming that this player also have no information of our game it is a little bit strange when this players bets or re-raises us, because we are completely in the dark. (how can I guy in the dark could be trying to bluff us out of the pot?)

Flop situation:

Flop ($0.77): 6♣ T♠ 7♠

There were 15 blinds in the pot and you bet 9 blinds ? What do you want to represent here, and when you bet so big in the flop which hands do you believe could be paying you?
Because the Big Blind called, our range from the CO most of times is very weak, and with our 18-23% range from the CO we are not always C-betting more than 1/2 pot in a kindda drawie and wet flop like this one. We bet mor than 1/2 pot when we are sure the player in the BB is a calling-station that will defend anything it hits and will try to float us out of the pot with crap.
This flop connects both to the CO's range and the BB's range which will have a lot of pocket pairs and suited connectors.
I believe 1/2 pot here will work just fine, for value and for protection, because many turns and rivers are not going to be good, and if we put a lot of blinds in the flop, we are almost commiting ourselves to the river. It is going to be hard to fold pocket aces in many rivers, when you bet so strong in the flop. (assuming Villain is a good regular, not a recreational).
There are other reasons that makes me not c-bet flop more than 1/2 here:

A) We are deep stacked and V. is just 100 BB. If we bet too much flop/turn we will be commited with a very strong value hand.
B) We don't know anything about our opponent, so why risk that much when we don't have the nuts? If you had pocket T's in this situation, which would be nuts, even so it would be hard to play many turns and river that could connect to BB's defending range.
C) As John Anhalt states in his book "Polished Poker Vol 1" (available here at the forum: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/polished-poker-vol-i-study-group-227214//)
there are some players that we call "flush chasers, OESD chasers, gutshot chasers, etc"
At the micro stakes there are thousands of players which will never fold a flush draw flop/turn and many will go all in river trying to represent their missed draw. :eek:
We want the pot to grow postflop because we have a very strong value hand, but by the same token, we don't want the pot to grow too much out of proportion, in some board textures, because we know that it will be hard to leave our hand, and when we leave the hand we will feel like we should have called.
The Jack of Diamonds in the Turn is a real strange card for our range now, because it connects too much the board, making the reading extremely difficult. For many reasons I would be checking this turn, so I would not give my opponent the rope to hang me.
IF we make the pot grow again here, it will be very strange if Villain float us with a all-in river. Now, following a rational line of game, betting 1/2 pot flop for value and protection it's okay, but the J in the turn connects the board even more, because we were losing for some combos of 98 in the flop, and we continue to lose for these combos at the turn. But in the turn some levelers are going to float us a lot with strong broadways that connects to this turn. We will never now if V. really has Tx in its range or some weak Jack that it decided to flop river because CO has a weaker range in this scenario most of times. :confused:
It is not because that we have AA, KK, QQ, JJ in a low board that we should be C-betting a lot here. Remember we will have many bluffs on our range when we open raise from CO and C-bet a drawie flop with a double barrel turn: we will never have TT, JJ, 98 on our range, because if we had these hands we would make a more soft line postlfop, to induce Villain's bluffs to level against our range and we trap them. I hope it helps you!
Are you sure that folding in a spot where you are winning 68% of times is plus EV?

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

My man, it was a university poker lesson here! Thanks! I really appreciate but I need your help a little more to make sure that I understood everything you said :D

If I get it right I can resume all you said in the following points:
  • I have a 68% EV to my call at R
  • It's very likely that the villain was calling for a draw and went to all in to bluff it. I really get this because I had fished a lot of fishy players doing that and I got all their money :D:D:D but in this particular scenario the board was to wet to make such decision in my opinion.
  • You recommend me that instead of betting in T in boards and players like this, I check a little bit more?
  • Finally, you suggest me that I should make this kind of play vs players with more hands and stats collected right? I get it. That was one of the reason I fold. I did not know too much to the villain, so... the board was too wet and I preferred to fold.
Thanks for all your time!
 
S

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Hi there OmarRD7, thank you for posting and sharing your hand! Very nice hand!

The first thing I would like to say is that we should play accordingly to the pool: I can see that you have played only two hands with the V in the Big Blind, but it seems that it just called 50% preflop.
When you see players ahead that love very much to call preflop to hit their exquisite equities, make a bigger preflop raise, without risk of they fold too much (the risk here is that they call too much, so we want to inflate the pot ASAP to play against a player like this one). However, expect a bigger sample of hands before making decisions.
In Position we can make a 3x raise, 3,5x, if the player really loves to call we can raise even 4x or 4.5x, because this guy is not likely to make a preflop 3bet and because it defends the Big Blind versus Button in a high frequency, something like 40%, 50% or more.
What I say it is not a mistake at all to raise 5x or even more preflop when you know you have a calling station ahead. We don't need to play GTO against players who barely read their hole cards! What happens when we raise low sizings against fishes ahead (both passive and aggressive ones):
A) To call you preflop with a wider range, including a bunch of suited connectors, low and mid pairs, and bluff you out of pot and many scenarios, where we would be out of position in relation to the player in the BTN, and we might risk thinking that the Big Blind may have a capped range, but the Big Blind will show more a dynamic range than a capped one.

B) When we give such a good price for a player in position, for the times we raise just 2x or 2.5x, we are opening the door for more 3bets lights because many players will see smaller raises and a weak point that can be explored, and it makes logic, because we can only continue in a 3bet preflop with the same hands that we could be 4betting or jamming, and those we can't find most of times.

I know that in the specific scenario you had AA from the CO, but from the CO your range is never capped, your range from the CO is dynamic which turns the reading and the exploration postflop completely different. We can have AA, KK, AK from the CO, but we also have a lot of J9s, KTs, 98s, 22, 44, 77, etc.
When you raise preflop 2.5x from the CO you will have in your range:

all the pocket pairs: 22+ (5.88%)+

a bunch of suited connectors: AKs, KQs, QJs, JTs, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s (3.32%)+

a lot of suited aces, strong suited broadways, off suited broadways, some strong off suited aces, etc: AQs-A2s, KJs-K9s, QTs-Q8s, J9s-J8s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo (14.78%)

Thus, we observe how dynamic our range from the CO can be in single raised pot. It is the same for the Big Blind's defense range, it will be very, very large depending on some players.

When do we face players we don't know:

For as boring as it seems, when we are in a cash table against a player that we barely know it, a player that will have a sample of 0 and 10 hands played. It is a very short number for decision making.
IMO, the best solution when we are playing against an unkown, is to treat it like a good regular. We gotta respect our adversaries, specially when we have no information about it.
Assuming that this player also have no information of our game it is a little bit strange when this players bets or re-raises us, because we are completely in the dark. (how can I guy in the dark could be trying to bluff us out of the pot?)

Flop situation:

Flop ($0.77): 6♣ T♠ 7♠

There were 15 blinds in the pot and you bet 9 blinds ? What do you want to represent here, and when you bet so big in the flop which hands do you believe could be paying you?
Because the Big Blind called, our range from the CO most of times is very weak, and with our 18-23% range from the CO we are not always C-betting more than 1/2 pot in a kindda drawie and wet flop like this one. We bet mor than 1/2 pot when we are sure the player in the BB is a calling-station that will defend anything it hits and will try to float us out of the pot with crap.
This flop connects both to the CO's range and the BB's range which will have a lot of pocket pairs and suited connectors.
I believe 1/2 pot here will work just fine, for value and for protection, because many turns and rivers are not going to be good, and if we put a lot of blinds in the flop, we are almost commiting ourselves to the river. It is going to be hard to fold pocket aces in many rivers, when you bet so strong in the flop. (assuming Villain is a good regular, not a recreational).
There are other reasons that makes me not c-bet flop more than 1/2 here:

A) We are deep stacked and V. is just 100 BB. If we bet too much flop/turn we will be commited with a very strong value hand.
B) We don't know anything about our opponent, so why risk that much when we don't have the nuts? If you had pocket T's in this situation, which would be nuts, even so it would be hard to play many turns and river that could connect to BB's defending range.
C) As John Anhalt states in his book "Polished Poker Vol 1" (available here at the forum: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/polished-poker-vol-i-study-group-227214//)
there are some players that we call "flush chasers, OESD chasers, gutshot chasers, etc"
At the micro stakes there are thousands of players which will never fold a flush draw flop/turn and many will go all in river trying to represent their missed draw. :eek:
We want the pot to grow postflop because we have a very strong value hand, but by the same token, we don't want the pot to grow too much out of proportion, in some board textures, because we know that it will be hard to leave our hand, and when we leave the hand we will feel like we should have called.
The Jack of Diamonds in the Turn is a real strange card for our range now, because it connects too much the board, making the reading extremely difficult. For many reasons I would be checking this turn, so I would not give my opponent the rope to hang me.
IF we make the pot grow again here, it will be very strange if Villain float us with a all-in river. Now, following a rational line of game, betting 1/2 pot flop for value and protection it's okay, but the J in the turn connects the board even more, because we were losing for some combos of 98 in the flop, and we continue to lose for these combos at the turn. But in the turn some levelers are going to float us a lot with strong broadways that connects to this turn. We will never now if V. really has Tx in its range or some weak Jack that it decided to flop river because CO has a weaker range in this scenario most of times. :confused:
It is not because that we have AA, KK, QQ, JJ in a low board that we should be C-betting a lot here. Remember we will have many bluffs on our range when we open raise from CO and C-bet a drawie flop with a double barrel turn: we will never have TT, JJ, 98 on our range, because if we had these hands we would make a more soft line postlfop, to induce Villain's bluffs to level against our range and we trap them. I hope it helps you!
Are you sure that folding in a spot where you are winning 68% of times is plus EV?

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa



Well structured and really deep analysis Sir:icon_stud thanks for being here.
 
Aballinamion

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My man, it was a university poker lesson here! Thanks! I really appreciate but I need your help a little more to make sure that I understood everything you said :D

If I get it right I can resume all you said in the following points:
  • I have a 68% EV to my call at R
  • It's very likely that the villain was calling for a draw and went to all in to bluff it. I really get this because I had fished a lot of fishy players doing that and I got all their money :D:D:D but in this particular scenario the board was to wet to make such decision in my opinion.
  • You recommend me that instead of betting in T in boards and players like this, I check a little bit more?
  • Finally, you suggest me that I should make this kind of play vs players with more hands and stats collected right? I get it. That was one of the reason I fold. I did not know too much to the villain, so... the board was too wet and I preferred to fold.
Thanks for all your time!

I thank you too buddy, it is very kind of you, and sorry for I am a little bit nerd :stupido:
Yes, you have 68% equity in the river for calling V's shove, like John Anhalt said, it is a very close spot. Against unkown player the best line is folding.

Yes, there were some busted draws in V's range when it shoves river, making very difficult for all the hands the c-bet flop and c-bet turn to continue. Yup, I saw dozens of players doing this at the micros everyday, they miss their draws or ace highs with strong kickers and put up all in in the river. But we gotta have notes and statistics on the player before calling complicated rivers like this.

In the Turn both betting and checking are fine, but if you bet you should make a bigger size to represent the nuts or the sets (TT, 77, 66, T7, JJ, 98). If you check-turn and V shoves river it is a very easy fold because we didn't invest that much.
If we check-turn and V bets a decent sizing we can comfortably call knowing that we are winning 68% of times here.

Yes, against players that you already saw shoving rivers with busted draws and ace high, you should never fold this AA because it is more likely to be the nuts. I said that your preflop raise of 5x is good, however you don't know the Villain in the Big Blind which turns our sizing strange.
Well played, congratulations, many players at the micros would never fold AA regardless of the board texture.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
OmarRD7

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I thank you too buddy, it is very kind of you, and sorry for I am a little bit nerd :stupido:
Yes, you have 68% equity in the river for calling V's shove, like John Anhalt said, it is a very close spot. Against unkown player the best line is folding.

Yes, there were some busted draws in V's range when it shoves river, making very difficult for all the hands the c-bet flop and c-bet turn to continue. Yup, I saw dozens of players doing this at the micros everyday, they miss their draws or ace highs with strong kickers and put up all in in the river. But we gotta have notes and statistics on the player before calling complicated rivers like this.

In the Turn both betting and checking are fine, but if you bet you should make a bigger size to represent the nuts or the sets (TT, 77, 66, T7, JJ, 98). If you check-turn and V shoves river it is a very easy fold because we didn't invest that much.
If we check-turn and V bets a decent sizing we can comfortably call knowing that we are winning 68% of times here.

Yes, against players that you already saw shoving rivers with busted draws and ace high, you should never fold this AA because it is more likely to be the nuts. I said that your preflop raise of 5x is good, however you don't know the Villain in the Big Blind which turns our sizing strange.
Well played, congratulations, many players at the micros would never fold AA regardless of the board texture.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Bro, Thanks a lot! You put in a very technical way all what I thought when I played the hand. And besides, I learned a lot with your two replies and I really feel that it will help me to be a better player. I really appreciated it.

I'll pay even more attetion to your posts in the future! :D:D:D:D:D:D

Thanks again!
 
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Folds was good.
I like a bigger c bet, about pot sized to commit the short stacker and give bad odds to the other guy. Definitely wanting to check the turn when the full stack continues and yet another straight card falls.
 
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