$5 NLHE 6-max: Was this a good spot for a triple barrel bluff?

[JackOscar]

I'm starting to convince myself that it was so I just want to make sure I'm not being too crazy.​

This is my 3-betting range CO vs UTG. https://i.imgur.com/iXwaqh4.png

The flop is a standard range bet since the flop is bone dry and I have range advantage, so my range is the same on the turn.

On the turn I continue for value with AA, KK, AKs (12 combos) so I should balance that with around the same number of bluffs (correct?) so good candidates are JdTd, ATs, A2-A5s (13 combos). The rest of our hands we check/call and give up the JTs without flush draws. I bet an amount that comfortably sets up a pot sized river shove.

The river card doesn't change much I think, a club would've been nice to see for our bluffing range but we still have the same 12 value combos in our range and so with a pot sized river bet we should balance those with 6 bluffs to make our opponent indifferent to bluff catching. ATs and JTs are bad candidates since they block TT (and JTs doesn't block AK either of course) which is likely to fold now so we should pick from A2s-A5s so the natural candidates become the 6 combos of non diamond A3s,A4s that don't block the flush draw. Making this bet probably still terrible against a 5NL calling station, but maybe at least theoretically sound. Does this seem about right?


888Poker Snap, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

Riolyk (UTG): $5.00 (100 bb)
Neverscare15 (MP): $6.76 (135 bb)
JackOscar95 (CO): $13.35 (267 bb)
nutscasino (BU): $6.28 (126 bb)
pushme.bro (SB): $5.07 (101 bb)
hierojaman (BB): $8.70 (174 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero (JackOscar95) is CO with 3♣ A♣
Riolyk (UTG) raises to $0.15, 1 fold, JackOscar95 (CO) 3-bets to $0.45, 3 players fold, Riolyk (UTG) calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.97) 6♣ 8♥ 6♦ (2 players)
Riolyk (UTG) checks, JackOscar95 (CO) bets $0.33, Riolyk (UTG) calls $0.33

Turn: ($1.63) K♦ (2 players)
Riolyk (UTG) checks, JackOscar95 (CO) bets $0.86, Riolyk (UTG) calls $0.86

River: ($3.35) J♣ (2 players)
Riolyk (UTG) checks, JackOscar95 (CO) bets $3.40, Riolyk (UTG) calls $3.36 (all-in)

Total pot: $10.07 (Rake: $0.59)

Showdown:
JackOscar95 (CO) shows 3♣ A♣ (a pair of Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 30%, Flop: 22%, Turn: 0%, River: 0%)

Riolyk (UTG) shows A♠ K♣ (two pair, Kings and Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 70%, Flop: 78%, Turn: 100%, River: 100%)

Riolyk (UTG) wins $9.48

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Making this bet probably still terrible against a 5NL calling station, but maybe at least theoretically sound. Does this seem about right?​

Unfortunately I think this statement is more important than the analysis. It's great to study and know game theory and balance but if your playing against unbalanced opponents you HAVE to shift away from equilibrium. You HAVE to adjust. A very large part of the game is how you adjust to the table. If you were playing against a solid reg that you had thousands of hands against and you knew his play to be balanced and difficult to exploit then I would be fine with digging in here. But I think the much larger lesson here is that it doesn't really matter if the play was theoretically sound against a theoretically balanced opponent because that's not who is in the hand with you. I wouldn't be surprised if he turned over KTo at 5NL.

As such I would adjust ranges pre and post to be more value heavy and have less bluffs. Especially low equity bluffs. As you move up you will already be equipped to widen ranges based on your study. One of the most common and most exploitable leaks in the micros is that players call too much both pre and post. So having a balanced bluffing range becomes much less of an asset and can actually hurt your win rate, as evidenced here.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I can be ok 3-betting A3s here, but you dont always have to do it, when the open came from UTG. Just folding and moving on is an acceptable option.

Flop
C-bet sure but in the micros I am not to keen on this downbetting. The idea is, people fold to often to it, but I am not sure, that is really the case at 5NL. So I prefer a more traditional half pot or something.

Turn
I am fine with barreling using the K as a "scare card". You can absolutely represent AK as the preflop 3-better, and the fact, he actually had it, is just kind of funny. That will happen from time to time, but its not his entire range.

River
Jc changes nothing, and now its time to pause and think about, what he realistically has, and what he will be willing to fold, if you put him all in. And I think, its difficult to come up with a range for him, that would open UTG, call the 3-bet, call the C-bet on the flop, call the C-bet on the turn and then fold now at more than a 50% frequenzy. He usually has some sort of decent hand here, and its ok to just give up, if your bluff failed. Saving those last 68BB makes a big difference to your winrate and also your variance.

 

[JackOscar]

Preflop
I can be ok 3-betting A3s here, but you dont always have to do it, when the open came from UTG. Just folding and moving on is an acceptable option.

Flop
C-bet sure but in the micros I am not to keen on this downbetting. The idea is, people fold to often to it, but I am not sure, that is really the case at 5NL. So I prefer a more traditional half pot or something.

Turn
I am fine with barreling using the K as a "scare card". You can absolutely represent AK as the preflop 3-better, and the fact, he actually had it, is just kind of funny. That will happen from time to time, but its not his entire range.

River
Jc changes nothing, and now its time to pause and think about, what he realistically has, and what he will be willing to fold, if you put him all in. And I think, its difficult to come up with a range for him, that would open UTG, call the 3-bet, call the C-bet on the flop, call the C-bet on the turn and then fold now at more than a 50% frequenzy. He usually has some sort of decent hand here, and its ok to just give up, if your bluff failed. Saving those last 68BB makes a big difference to your winrate and also your variance.

Hey, thank you for the good advice! Yeah I was mostly just focusing on my own range balancing my value hands with bluffs (I think maybe I'm making a mistake putting AK in my own value range though, since he does have AK himself that chop against that, so maybe I should only count half of them or something?) and since I am pretty heavily skewed towards value I felt I had to add in hands like A3s (no d) in my river betting range. Problem I suppose is villain doesn't have much air to fold, KQ and QQ I guess is the only hands I can target after the J river makes his JJ into a set.

What do you think about this play if the river came a diamond, like 4d or whatever, would you think a bluff here is good enough then? My reasoning is that then a lot of our turn bluffs with 2 diamonds turn into value hands, affording us a lot more bluffs on the river while staying balanced? That also legitimizes betting turn with hands like this I think since that means we will still have bluffs left in our range on diamond river cards so we aren't completely unbalanced towards value on the river.

 

[zuker]

3bettin UTG raiser with A3s OOP is bad idea.
Forget about balancing, metagame etc. It`s just NL5.

 

[JackOscar]

3bettin UTG raiser with A3s OOP is bad idea.
Forget about balancing, metagame etc. It`s just NL5.

But I am in position?

 

[fundiver199]

As have been said already, worrying to much about balance is just a winrate killer in the micros. The idea of balance is, that by getting caught bluffing in a spot like this you are more likely to get value later. But at 5NL most people are just not playing close enough attention to, what their opponents are doing, for this to be true. Even more so when you play SNAP, because then you are facing new opponents every hand.

And how often does a hand even go 3-bet, bet, bet, shove? The reality is, that next time, this happen, and you have AA, its against someone else, and he have no clue, that you were taking this line with A3s. He is probably also going to call you somewhat light regardless, because you are playing for 5$, and who cares.

As for good bluffing runouts yes it would be better, if the river was some kind of scary card like completing a flush. I also agree, that he just dont have much air left, he can fold, and it does matter at least a little bit, that JJ got there.

 

[Ianmacca99]

As fundiver already said I wouldn't worry about balance and theoretically sound plays at the micro stakes

Once called on the flop and turn I would give up here sure you have range advantage but some players can't see past their own hand as turned out he had one of the hands your trying to represent.

I've found that I've ran bluffs I've thought were good plays and probably theoretically were but have been called down by 2nd or 3rd pair.

Calling stations are the players you don't want to bluff often especially without any equity. These are the players you want to value bet with the goods for slightly bigger sizes and get paid off