$5 NLHE 6-max: 88 cold call from MP x UTG deep stacked.

[Aballinamion]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 20/18/2.9

Hello there CardsChat community how you doing? It is a great opportunity to be here learning with all of you! I am forever greatful for it! This hand was played at 5 NLHE and I didn't put the hand in the CardsChat Hand Converter because I really wanna know that the community thinks about it.
Villain in the UTG is a Good Regular, I have a sample of over 700+ hands with him, and I never saw it doing anything odd.
Hero is in the MP deep stacked and decided to call with 88 because UTG has a decent stack and players ahead also have good stack sizings, good for setmining. Otherwise I could be folding 88 sometimes with no further problems. Also because this regular decided to mini-raise from UTG, which gave even better odds for calling down from the MP.

UTG 138.42 BB
HERO MP 8h8s 155.52 BB
CO 229.28 BB
BTN 106.90 BB
SB 100 BB
BB 103.08 BB

UTG Open raises to 2x. Hero MP calls. Everybody else fold. We are going to a heads-up in position:

Pot size: 5.5 BB
Flop: Kh8dQc

UTG C-bets 3.45 BB. Hero action?

* Try to think a second about what would you do before reading my action

Spoiler

Hero MP calls. Why do we call? Because we do not have a range for raising for bluff in this Flop.
Besides UTG will have much more KK and QQ than the MP. If I don't have a range for
bluff in a spot like that, I cannot raise for value as well, unless the player is very bad and did not realize it. Against Regulars who use to think the game, we cannot have a raise for value where we do not have a raise for bluff.

Pot size: 12.4 BB
Turn: Kh8dQc 6d

UTG double barrels overbet 17.67 BBs. Again. Hero MP action?

Spoiler

Again, we see no reason for raising, otherwise we would be screaming to Villain
that we are very, very strong. Also, we must defend by calling here to protect our range, AK, AQ, KQs. In a Turn like that we would be paying a double barrel like that only with:

AKo, AKs, KQo, KQs, 88, AA, if we have it, KK and all the rest it is an easy fold

Pot: 47.74 BB
River: Kh8dQc 6d Jd

UTG triple barrels 42.62 BB. Hero MP action?

* Here it is really critical for learning if you think about what would you do first. After you think, read what did I do in fact. Or don't read at all if you think that it could compromise your line of thought.

Spoiler

It is one of the worse rivers ever! Villain in the UTG could be bluffing a Flush Draw of Diamonds, Villain could have AT, T9, she/he has all KK, QQ, while we in the MP have none, when UTG triple barrel this river, it hits almost all of its bluffs. Another mistake, in my opinion, is to pay this river: a very easy fold. Sometimes when we are tilted, angry, out of control, when we are not completely focused in the gameplay, we see this 88 and think "it is too strong" and call the triple barrel right off the bat without ever considering which hands Villain has in its range. (which worst hands could be doing it? Kx? KQo? really?)
Nonetheless, if we stop and wonder for a minute, which hands Villain could be doing that for value? KK, QQ, AT, T9, and the flushes. Which are his bluffs in the turn? The flushes, T9, AT, and JT: JhTh, JcTc and JsTs.Are the only combo bluffs villain might have in this river. 4 combos of T9s, 4 combos of ATs, we do not believe it is a good idea to pay
this river. I never saw any Good Regular betting KQ in a River like that. If you have any ideas I would like to know.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Interesting spot. With 700+ hands you know better than us what V is overbetting turn and potting this river with. I would expect KQ to be in many regs range though given the action. I like your line up to the river. Did you also consider what our line looks like to V? He or she also has lots of history with us.

Pre flop: When we flat the min raise pre we never have QQ+.

Flop: We probably don't float T9 on this flop so our range is capped. We can have 3 combos of 88 or we can have KQ or JT or maybe float a suited broadway gutter like ATdd for the 1/3 sizing.

Turn: We are folding all of our broadway gutters to the overbet except MAYBE a sticky ATdd, AJdd (but the J hits the river so we can't have this hand). We also continue with 88, KQ, JTdd isn't possible and all other JT should fold.

River: V is still uncapped and knows it while we have exactly 4 combos of value that may get here that can beat KQ. 3 combos of 88 and one combo of ATdd. Why wouldn't he go for three streets here when KQ is so often good? If we know that he never bets river this strong with KQ and doesn't have any bluffs we can consider folding but it's a very nitty fold that requires all of those 700+ hand histories and a super solid soul read. If Vs an unknown I'm calling it off here but it sounds like you may have enough history to make an exploitative fold here.

The problem I have without knowing Vs betting tendencies is that with 18 PFR over that sample he is certainly raising wide enough to be considered aggressive. Many players who raise this wide are aggressive enough to have more than exclusively QQ and KK on this river. Another thing that stands out is the pre flop sizing. This could be a tell that he has a monster and wants to induce a 3 bet in which case QQ or KK is more likely. How often does he min raise UTG? Have you seen this before with hands weaker than QQ? I'm assuming you called and got shown KK and that is the reason for the post but it can be very difficult to find spots where folding in set over set scenarios is correct. The default is to just pay it off and take your lumps in cases like this unless we can put together a strong read with perhaps some bet sizing tells and make a ridiculous and rare fold. We only have to be good 1 out of 3 times to make this a break even call so it's tough for me to narrow his range to only the 6 combos of oversets here.

 

[Aballinamion]

Interesting spot. With 700+ hands you know better than us what V is overbetting turn and potting this river with. I would expect KQ to be in many regs range though given the action. I like your line up to the river. Did you also consider what our line looks like to V? He or she also has lots of history with us.

Pre flop: When we flat the min raise pre we never have QQ+.

Flop: We probably don't float T9 on this flop so our range is capped. We can have 3 combos of 88 or we can have KQ or JT or maybe float a suited broadway gutter like ATdd for the 1/3 sizing.

Turn: We are folding all of our broadway gutters to the overbet except MAYBE a sticky ATdd, AJdd (but the J hits the river so we can't have this hand). We also continue with 88, KQ, JTdd isn't possible and all other JT should fold.

River: V is still uncapped and knows it while we have exactly 4 combos of value that may get here that can beat KQ. 3 combos of 88 and one combo of ATdd. Why wouldn't he go for three streets here when KQ is so often good? If we know that he never bets river this strong with KQ and doesn't have any bluffs we can consider folding but it's a very nitty fold that requires all of those 700+ hand histories and a super solid soul read. If Vs an unknown I'm calling it off here but it sounds like you may have enough history to make an exploitative fold here.

The problem I have without knowing Vs betting tendencies is that with 18 PFR over that sample he is certainly raising wide enough to be considered aggressive. Many players who raise this wide are aggressive enough to have more than exclusively QQ and KK on this river. Another thing that stands out is the pre flop sizing. This could be a tell that he has a monster and wants to induce a 3 bet in which case QQ or KK is more likely. How often does he min raise UTG? Have you seen this before with hands weaker than QQ? I'm assuming you called and got shown KK and that is the reason for the post but it can be very difficult to find spots where folding in set over set scenarios is correct. The default is to just pay it off and take your lumps in cases like this unless we can put together a strong read with perhaps some bet sizing tells and make a ridiculous and rare fold. We only have to be good 1 out of 3 times to make this a break even call so it's tough for me to narrow his range to only the 6 combos of oversets here.

Thanks a lot for your analysis, it is very profound and it contributes a lot to everybody's improvement. I follow your comments here at the CardsChat forum, and you have a really good hand reading and a great power of observation and synthesis. I also enjoy your candor, it is a real good aspect of professional people, who don't take things to the "ego" and "self" side, people who are opened as yourself and with a mind free of obstacles.
The criteria you use is very logic and it demonstrate that you are a profitable player with the sole ability to convey your wisdom. I am thankful for this chance, because CardsChat is like a family: we are not opponents here, we are simply trying to help one another to achieve the best results in the long run.
Because we love poker and we dedicate ourselves in deep, because that's what we do when we are in love with someone or something, as a work, a hobby, a profession like Poker, etc.
Thanks everybody who works at CardsChat, the administrators, the programmers, the people of the forum, everybody who contributes to create such an amazing environment of thinking the game in very different levels. And thanks to you c0rnBr34d! Great Job!

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[Sidetracked]

I think folding your set of 88s there is a mistake. He could easily be betting like that with AA or 2 pr. You're playing $5 NL, and I think you're giving far too much credit to this opponent.

 

[Aballinamion]

I think folding your set of 88s there is a mistake. He could easily be betting like that with AA or 2 pr. You're playing $5 NL, and I think you're giving far too much credit to this opponent.

Wonderful. Thank you, I appreciate your comment very much. After reading the analysis of c0rnBr34d, and yours, Sidetracked, I reviewed my actions, but this villain is very tricky and smart.
If I had only 100 BB stack size I could play different, I guess. I don't see this Villain, even at 5 NLHE, betting weak hands that could be drawing dead such as AA, KQ, 66.
I don't have many bluffs in a situation MP x UTG. I called a raisor from the UTG with a very narrow range and, in the long run is terrible: I would get many squeezors Preflop and would only continue with very specific parts of my range.
c0rnBr34d is right when it wonders about the possibility of villain be opening the stronger portion of his range with a mini-raise from UTG. In the long run I am breakeven against this player, winning for nothing. I saw villain opening the assigned range I gave for it.
c0rnBr34d also told that I need to be good only 1 time out of 3. But I don't think that with so high a rake it is profitable to be calling in a spot like that. If the River is a blank for V's range, it is an easy call, never a raise.
So, we would have to pay 42.62 blinds to fight for a pot of 132.98 blinds? Am I correct my math sucks sometimes. So, in the first time I call I lose 65.74 blinds, Villain shows a KK preflop. The second time I call and I lose more 65.74 blinds, Villain shows a flush. By the third time I call and I win 132.98 blinds? If I could play millions of hand per month I would certainly be calling down here, even with the most eminent risks.

132.98 - 131.48 = 1.5 blinds. (1.5 blinds +EV? What about the rake? Even at 100 NLHE 1.5 EV profit does not cover the rake) How can I risk in the long run that huge ammount of blinds to win in the end 1.5 blinds? The best case scenario I would be breakeven with Villain in the UTG, and this is not making money.
I invested 23.12 blinds to see many rivers that are better to the MP's range than to the UTG's range. I only lost 23.12 blinds and many times I will be crushing here and taking very sizeable pots, in different board textures. I had a deep stack behind, so the investment in the river is too large for a breakeven spot. Anyways, perhaps I have a stronger ego, I don't know guys, feel free to disagree, I am just trying to be candid, nor tude.
Thanks everybody again guys!

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[kkonicke]

I agree with Sidetracked here. If you're playing higher stakes, I'd agree with your thought process. Here, I think you are overthinking this one. Diamonds are certainly possible if he ran off AK/AQ of diamonds, but I think zero chance of a straight here.

 

[Aballinamion]

I agree with Sidetracked here. If you're playing higher stakes, I'd agree with your thought process. Here, I think you are overthinking this one. Diamonds are certainly possible if he ran off AK/AQ of diamonds, but I think zero chance of a straight here.

Thanks for your comment kkonicke. So, you are telling me that you will be calling down here? Or would you be raising deep stacked, because we are so sure that V doesn't have a straight in his range, that the all-in shove rivers starts to become a possibility. IF I were playing 100 NLHE I would be doing the same things versus a regular that I have information not to be bluffing with a single Ace of diamonds in a spot like that, neither bluffing with KQ:
But V is betting here with all of the straights, which I have none, all the better sets with KK, QQ and JJ, which I have none, and betting here with all of his flushes, which I have none. I am not even blocking any part of V's range in the River. If I have an Ace, a diamond, anything, but I have none of these combos. . But I respect your line of thought.
If I were playing 500 NLHE, or over, I would be certainly be calling down here, not only with 88 but with a lot of stuff. but 5 NLHE I like to respect a lot these kind of actions, maybe I am wrong, maybe I am stubborn, but I am just a student not a perfect player or person. I am here to learn, and sometimes is hard.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Thanks for your kind words. I'm no pro, we are all here to learn so I try to keep an open mind.

Yeah, I forgot to add the AQdd combo to Vs value range. I wouldn't expect AKdd to overbet turn but I guess it's possible. Also agree he shouldn't show up with straights here. At any rate we are talking about losing to like 7 combos and we are super strong at the absolute top of our range (barring ATdd) and under-repped. It sounds like you folded but as I suggested in my earlier post the default play here is to call and take your lumps if you're beat.