This is a discussion on $5 NLHE 6-max: 3-bet pot cbet is raised. within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Hey all,
Long time no see. I've moved down in stakes a bit :( but now I fond I'm struggling here too sometimes, so maybe it's
I kind of lean towards just getting it in. There are a lot of draws on this board, and your sizing can look weak and induce a spazz raise. The problem is, you are out of position, so if you just call, you are going to check the turn to him, and then he can check behind and see both cards for the price of his small raise.
You improve to top two, but all the draws came in, and he jam it in your face. This is a really gross spot, and I guess its ok to fold. Its one of those, where it kind of feels like, our hand is to strong to fold. But if we call, we are usually going to get shown at least a set, and its going to be pretty tilting.
His flop raise sizing is pretty donkish, which makes me lean heavily towards c/fing the turn like you did with all the draws coming in. As played though, getting it in on the flop for ~100bbs is rarely bad unless your opponent is pretty nitty.
I guess you trust that sample so you give us the information.Assuming the villain PFR 25% this is something close to: 22+, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A9o+, KTo+, QJo
If we think of villain F3B: 33% preflop, V range has to be the remaining 67% from CO. But since we are a wide range from SB, we could include some random combos, so this has an approximate form of: 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, AJo+
Against this range you are way ahead, both on the flop and on the turn. But from the perception of your range, when you do 1/3 OTF, the villain must raise much bigger, when he wants to get value of his implied odds. Also, the villain is a bit deep, so the size he chose is very suspicious. So if we decide to call OTF, it is because our goal is to get value from OTT polarized bets from it.
As played on the flop, villain now knows that he has a very large disadvantage in his range, while we represent all the best flush draws (possibly flushs made now).
If we assume that the villain here has the semi nuts, this is the same as disregarding the statistics, since they do clearly show that this player is not a nit.
Obviously it's better to push on the flop, but given the sequence played I don't hate pushing OTT.